In den 90ern war ein Argument in der Diskussion, verbeamten oder nicht: Der Angestellte verdient viel mehr, dafür bekommt der Beamte höhere Pensionen. Man sieht, wie die Realität vorangeschritten ist. Beamtengehälter haben Schritt gehalten mit der allgemeinen Entwicklung,...

Bei dem Korridor nach St Petersburg wird immer nur über Lettland und Estland gesprochen. Es kann Gewicht bekommen, wenn einfach der belarussische benutzt wird. Es gibt keine großen Berichte mehr über ru. Gleitbomben, die von Belarus aus abgeworfen werden. Wäre fatal für Kiew.

Kurz: Russland scheint Daten zu sammeln. Wenn es ernst macht, sind die Brücken nicht zu halten, danach wäre die Logistik östlich des Dnepr ein einziges Chaos. Ich verstehe nicht, warum es gut sein soll, solange zu warten, bis es soweit ist. Welcher Gewinn für die Ukraine?

Man kann das ausrechnen: etwa vier bis acht Treffer kann die Brücke verkraften, bevor das Segment einstürzt. Die Genauigkeit ist relativ hoch bei den FAB 500, eine Abfangquote für die angetriebenen FAB wird auf 20% geschätzt, elektronische Maßnahmen wirken unterschiedlich.

Heute ein Einschlag einer ru Gleitbombe auf der Südbrücke in Dnipro. Wie bei den Treffern in Saporischschja: relativ kleines Loch. Wahrscheinlich FAB 500 mit Antrieb als Wuchtgeschoss eingeschlagen, Explosion dann unter der Fahrbahn, um die tragende Struktur zu beschädigen.

Dialektik bei der Arbeit. Nun wachen europäische Telekommunikationsunternehmen auf und wollen Alternativen zu Starlink eruieren. Zwar sehr spät, besser spät als nie. Nun noch diese extrem überteuerten Nicht-Flieger F 35 aus den Auftragsbüchern entfernen!

俄军军用卫星太空变轨，贴到了乌军雷达星135米脸上。 135米在地面上，是过个马路的距离。 在540公里的近地轨道上，这是两颗以每秒7.5公里狂奔的铁疙瘩。 时速两万七千公里。 两颗卫星并排飞，只要姿控喷气稍微多喷了0.1秒，两边当场就会撞成一团超高速碎片。 被咬住的这颗，叫 ICEYE-X36。 芬兰雷达卫星公司造的，挂在美国子公司名下。 乌克兰在地面上能穿透乌云、大雾和黑夜，盯死俄军装甲部队调动、雷达阵地和防空导弹，靠的全是这家公司的合成孔径雷达（SAR）。 天上下大雨，光学侦察卫星看不清，它能看清。 对俄军来说，这就是战场上头顶最扎眼的一只眼。 追上来的这颗，是俄罗斯的宇宙-2612（Kosmos-2612）。 今年4月从普列谢茨克发射场打上去的军用卫星。 过去这几天，地面空间跟踪机构看着它连续点火变轨，硬生生追平了轨道倾角，一点点压近距离。 从几百公里，压到几公里，再压到135米。 按照目前的轨道推算，它还会继续贴近到45米。 很多人的第一反应是：既然看它不顺眼，为什么不直接把它打下来？ 在太空里，真不能这么干。 真发一颗反导导弹打爆它，瞬间会炸出成千上万块高速太空碎片。 近地轨道一乱，不仅对方的卫星要遭殃，俄罗斯自己的通信星、甚至头顶的国际空间站全得被切成筛子。 这种玉石俱焚的手段，谁都不敢先动手。 所以现代太空对抗，玩的是一种更磨人的手段：非合作式交会对接与近距离操作。 说人话，就是太空尾随。 贴到135米甚至45米，它不需要开火。 在这个距离，俄军卫星可以干两件事。 第一件是信号侦听与定向压制。用小功率电子干扰，直接对着对方的接收天线灌噪声，废掉它的测控或者让雷达回传失真。 第二件更隐蔽，逼你变轨。 你怕不怕撞？ 你怕撞，你就得点火机动躲开。 但卫星在太空里的寿命，本质上就是那一箱推进剂。 燃料烧完了，姿态稳不住，寿命就提前报废了。 俄军用一颗耐耗的军用星，贴着逼你做避碰机动，耗的其实是你的在轨寿命。 而且最棘手的地方在于法律和边界。 ICEYE 是商业公司，但它提供的雷达数据直接服务于战区情报。 直接打，是袭击民用资产；放着不管，地面部队的一举一动全在它眼皮底下。 俄罗斯就派一颗军星贴身跟着，既不开火，也不离开。 轨道上的灰区对抗，已经不再是科幻小说的设定了。 当商业卫星深度卷入战场的瞬间，头顶五百公里的深空，就注定没有所谓的世外桃源。 x.com/s2a_systems/status/211…

الست الفرنسية المزهولة دي .. عضوة في حزب اليسار الفرنسي وناشطة من اكبر دعاة فتح الهجرة لشعوب شمال افريقيا وبتدافع عنهم كل مايعملوا مصيبة وكارثة وتتهم الأخرين اللي عايزين يوقفوا طوفان الهمج دول بالعنصرية ... هي عندها محل شيك صغير في مكان راقي وقفت في محلها تحاول تنقذه من النهب والسرقة وعشان هي ناشطة مشهورة بتقولهم انا فلانة الناشطة بتاعة اللجوء انا معاكوا انا دافعت عنكم وعن دخولكم و بقائكم في فرنسا زقوها وقعوها وداسوا عليها بأقدامهم كويس انها لسه حية ونهبوا المحل كله الست بقت علي الحديدة خسرت كل كفاح وشغل عمرها في لحظة .. واقفة مذهولة مش مصدقة ان اللصوص الغوغاء المجرمين البرابرة دول هما اللي طول عمرها بتدافع عنهم وعن انهم يغزوا بلدها ويخربوه عشان شهرتها في الدفاع عن لاجئين شمال افريقيا كل الميديا الفرنسية امبارح جايبة قصتها وصورتها قدام محلها المنهوب شقي عمرها كله وهي مش مصدقة مدي غبائها اللي وصل فرنسا للخراب والدمار ده كله 😢

#Breaking: European diplomats, including French and Polish representatives, who went to the West Bank to observe the olive harvest, have been violently assaulted by Israeli settlers.

I used to supervise Euroclear and Clearstream so this @FT story caught my attention. @MESandbu suggests Euroclear is too big to destabilise and Belgium is to small to bear the risks of $360 billion restoration costs if ever the Central Bank of the Russian Federation succeeds in regaining rights to frozen or expropriated assets - which it will regain in any settlement of the Ukraine war. What he fails to address entirely is Rule of Law and Private Property Rights. Sure these are inconvenient to thieves, but they are essential to global securities markets. Securities are called securities because they convey secure property interests and claims to their owners at law. What will destabilise Euroclear is global perception that $44 TRILLION in securities assets under custody are now UNSAFE because the EU can decide to steal them. Also, it’s irritating to see him suggest ECB can force Euroclear ‘to split off the risky part of its balance sheet into a separate entity’. That is just another form of theft. Euroclear is licensed as a bank, but its core business in its charter and under specific Belgian legislation is as a fiduciary or trustee of OTHER PEOPLES’ ASSETS. Because it is so central to European and global markets, it is forbidden to take normal commercial risks. Fiduciary, custodian, and trust assets under Euroclear custody are NOT on Euroclear’s balance sheet because 100% ownership remains with the depositors. Even if Euroclear goes bust, customer assets will NOT form any part of the insolvency estate and can be reclaimed by depositors. I designed and modernised the laws protecting Euroclear and Clearstream depositors. I pray they withstand these lawless attacks by would-be thieves. Break Rule of Law and Property Rights and you break global securities markets.

President Zelensky is a talented politician and a dazzling television communicator. But whoever is advising him on Washington seems determined to misuse that talent for short term partisan gain while walking him and Ukraine itself into a buzz saw. Going on America’s Sunday shows to drag the American president and Elon Musk, its most powerful industrialist, just two weeks before an election puts Ukraine squarely in the middle of a partisan knife fight. The Scranton ammunition-factory visit made Republicans furious in 2024; Zelenskyy blamed naivety and bad advice and asked for a free pass but it still had casualties. It prompted demands for Ambassador Oksana Markarova’s dismissal; she was later replaced as Kyiv worked to repair relations with Trump. Zelensky has already seen what this kind of political miscalculation can cost. This is Scranton times 100. Ukraine cannot afford to turn its relationship with America into a campaign issue. This isn’t television entertainment. The consequences land on Ukrainians.

US "Here is Starlink, a powerful military technology. We'll give it to you for free and block Russia. Just please don't use it to strike Russian mainland targets. They have, you know, nuclear warheads and stuff, thanks". Zelensky: Uses it to strike mainland targets. US "Zel, see above. Also, btw, you may not have noticed, but we have a global oil/energy crisis atm, so can you please, you know, not use Starlink to hit Russian refineries and make things worse, esp with the midterms coming up. Ty". Zelensky, "nah, I think I will, and especially because the midterms are coming up. Go fuck yourself Trump". US, ok let's throttle their mainland access so they can't launch offensive strikes. Zelensky: "Omg I can't understand why the US would possibly do this. The US seems to support the other side."

It is a strange world. Because 5.7 million people live in three small Baltic countries (whose total size is less than a Chinese Tier II city). and whose half of the population lives in Europe, and another third are Russians who cannot get citizenship, and because they have traumas and bad memories of the Soviet rule, the entire world of 8 billion people should go into a nuclear apocalypse and die.

Interessant Die Exportmengen Chinas sind nicht mehr gestiegen, aber die Preise erheblich, also auch das Exportvolumen insgesamt. Insgesamt der richtige Weg, eine quasi-Aufwertung, wenn die chinesischen Preise steigen, könnte man sagen Aber das gleiche gilt auch für die Importe

🚨 WOW! Sec. Scott Bessent came with receipts and MIC DROPPED Kristen Welker and Zelensky trying to paint Trump as a Putin flunky "Zelensky does NOT criticize his European partners...the Europeans are FINANCING the Russian war machine. The U.S. imports $4 billion of Russian products, 1.8 billion of that is fertilizer. The Europeans, the import more than **10 TIMES** that!" 🔥🔥🔥 "The UK in May WAIVED their embargo on diesel and jet fuel made with RUSSIAN crude. Where's the OUTRAGE for the rest of the world?!" Imagine thinking you know more than Bessent on issues like this. Trump is allowing some sale of diesel to help lower American prices. Europe has been buying Russian oil for MONTHS AND MONTHS despite Trump repeatedly asking them to stop The EU is still the biggest buyer of Russian LNG on Earth, taking 49% of all Russia's exports.

"Aber die Kalkulation jener, die die Ukraine diesen Pfad der falschen Hoffnungen entlanggeführt haben, lautet wie folgt: Wert der ukrainischen Verluste & Toten: null Wert der russischen Verluste & Toten: positiv. => solange der Krieg andauert, gewinnen sie. Das ist die Kalkulation der meisten Massenmedien, vieler Reporter, Politiker und Kommentatoren. Deshalb kann der Krieg ewig weitergehen. Nun, zumindest bis zum letzten Ukrainer & Russen. Wenn die Kriegshetzer selbst etwas auf dem Spiel hätten, wären sie viel vorsichtiger. Aber sie haben nichts. Krieg ist für sie kostenlos. Nur andere sterben." @JohannesVarwick

Horror Hour, Starring Ukraine’s Showman-in-Chief Another 20 million Ukrainians will flood into Europe if Ukraine “falls” in its war with Russia, warns Zelensky — Ukraine’s top entertainer turned geopolitical horror director. And who’s his target audience? Europe’s increasingly nervous political elites, whose approval ratings are sinking as anti-immigration sentiment rises and far-right populists gleefully cash in on the backlash. 20 (Twenty!) million more refugees! Imagine the horror! An unstoppable Ukrainian invasion of Europe — not with tanks, but with suitcases — sweeping Europe’s political establishment straight off Mount Olympus and into the electoral graveyard. That’s the nightmare Zelensky is selling them. Naturally, the script requires a suitably terrifying vision of Russian occupation: the Great Terror, the Gulag, the Holodomor — the full historical horror franchise. The same apocalyptic imagery Ukrainian wartime propaganda has been serving ordinary Ukrainians for the past five years, desperately trying to convince them that the trenches are preferable to whatever comes next. But Russia, I would argue, never intended to occupy all of Ukraine. That was never Putin’s strategic objective. He didn’t even physically eliminate Ukraine’s political leadership — unlike what the United States did in Iran. Russia can negotiate. The Istanbul talks demonstrated that. So have prisoner exchanges and the repatriation of the dead. Apparently, even in this war, diplomacy isn't quite as extinct as certain people would like us to believe. But why negotiate when fear sells so beautifully? Especially when a war can be turned into a lucrative business for Zelensky and his entourage — and into a convenient proxy war for his Western patrons, who get to strategically weaken Russia without having to bury a single one of their own soldiers. Here’s a radical proposal: Sit down. Negotiate. Make peace. Rebuild Ukraine. Give people a country they actually want to live in. Because right now, far too many Ukrainians seem to want just one thing: a ticket out. Especially men of military age. And no amount of presidential horror storytelling is going to make that inconvenient reality disappear.

Don't disagree with Danny here. But the problem with Israeli security strategy is far more fundamental than this. One of the sharpest knives I know once told me that after 10/7 the Israelis came to believe that 'there is only tactics, no strategy'. In a sense, they have decided to live day by day: destroy what you can, while you can. Tomorrow is another day. This is a kind of capitulation. It adds up to a wager that if you reduce all your enemies as much as you can, as long as you can, you will emerge more secure than before. There is no good reason to think this wager will work. One good reason to think it is counterproductive is that you are providing the strongest possible incentives to your enemies to gang up against you. Instead of driving a wedge between the Turks and the Saudis, you are forcing them together. Instead of driving a wedge between the Arabs and Iran, you practically forcing them to bracket their disputes so that they can deal with the principal threat facing them all — you. The Yinon idea does not work. Iran, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia are no more artifical or fragmented than Israel. These are highly cohesive state formations. Not just the Israelis, but even the Americans do not have the power at their disposal to break them apart. We have already seen how that panned out in Iran. Yet another reason for why this entire paradigm of securing Israel is totally wrongheaded is the very sharp limits on Israeli power, on the power of the US-Israeli alliance, or even the power of the combined geopolitical West. A policy of total rejectionism, non-accomodation, and omnidirectional aggression cannot be made to work because you simply do not have the power to do it. You do not produce enough weapons, you do not have enough troops. It is guaranteed to fail. Israel came close to total diplomatic disaster in 2026. Only US intervention it seems managed to keep the Egyptians out of the Sunni alliance. That control is not going to last. If Israel continues with its present course, it is going to end up in a war with all its neighbors. How do the Israelis propose to fight a two-front war against Turkey and Egypt? Even the Iranians will join the rest whether or not they are invited ( why wouldn't they be?). That is not a war it can win, given the deep diffusion of precision weapons. It is really hard to understand how the Israelis have convinced themselves of these harebrained ideas. x.com/citrinowicz/status/211…