deep in Polymarket & crypto
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- Following 2,721
- Followers 4,452
- Likes 45,290
The biggest NFT downfall in crypto
>Magic Eden
>Started as a Solana NFT marketplace
>Became the biggest marketplace on Solana
>Raised $160M+
>Reached a $1.6B valuation
>Expanded into Ethereum, Bitcoin and other chains
>Became the largest NFT marketplace by volume
>Launched solana:MEFNBXixkEbait3xn9bkm8WsJzXtVsaJEn4c8Sam21u at around $17
> solana:MEFNBXixkEbait3xn9bkm8WsJzXtVsaJEn4c8Sam21u closed its first day at $5.64
>Fell to around $1 within months
>Started expanding beyond NFTs
>Acquired Slingshot and launched a crypto casino
>Launched a Trump-branded wallet
>Then started shutting down its Bitcoin and EVM marketplaces
>Ended NFT buybacks and began cutting its multichain infrastructure
>$ME eventually fell below $0.06
A $1.6B crypto giant that spent years expanding everywhere
ended up dismantling the empire it built
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I put $46.24 on @rinkuru0323 to beat Brady Hiestand at UFC Fight Night for a potential ~$60.06 payout.
Polymarket had Nakamura at 77% when I entered, so the upside is about $13.82 if he gets the win.
Nakamura comes in with a 10-1 record and six KO wins, while Hiestand is 9-2 and returns after his last fight in June 2024.
The fight is scheduled for September 26, and the market is settled based on the official UFC result
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The fastest growing prediction market
>Polymarket
>Founded by 28-year-old @shayne_coplan
>Built one of the biggest prediction platforms in the world
>Returned to the US market in December
>Users deposited over $500M
>Raised billions from major investors
>Valued at ~$21B
>Backed by ICE and 1789 Capital
>Hired Amazon’s former CFO
>Bringing in experienced compliance executives
>Improving fraud detection and security
>Partnered with MLB and major celebrities
>Exploring user-created markets
>Preparing for a potential IPO
From a startup to a ~$21B company in just a few years.
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The Best Team at Polymarket
@shayne_coplan
@williamlegate
@MatthewModabber
I wish EVERYONE a wonderful day
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I’ve always wanted merch from these two companies, @Polymarket and @moonpay .
I promise, if I ever get it, I’ll make a fucking insane video )
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a fucking stranger just bid $1.2m to name bonnie blue’s @BonnieBlue_xoxo baby
and he just outbid clavicular
the new top bid is:
BETBOLT - $1,200,000
and somehow this is a real auction
today is the final day
other bids include:
group project - $750k
plan b - $666k
mixed nuts - $499,999
radex - $420k
but bonnie’s latest video made this 10x crazier
she says the current bids include:
“fuck ozzy” - spartans-com
“prophet muhammad” - sneeko
“top g” - the tate brothers
“scruffy”
american youtuber @clavicular had entered with a $1m bid
apparently the name could be:
LOOKSMAX
there’s also a bidder called “pumpfun”
not confirmed to be officially connected to @Pumpfun tho
and now BETBOLT just dropped $1.2m to take the #1 spot
the auction ends today
imagine your parents telling you:
“a stranger paid $1.2m to choose your name”
what is happening
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Timmy_Turnes retweeted
I put ~$32.65 on Alvi Dasuyev to win against Jaden Ortega for a potential $46.79 payout on Polymarket
The market has Alvi at ~70% odds, and I decided to buy "Yes" shares based on that matchup.
If Alvi gets the win, that’s ~$14.14 profit from this position.
UFC fans, what do you think - does Alvi get it done?
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I put ~$32.65 on Alvi Dasuyev to win against Jaden Ortega for a potential $46.79 payout on Polymarket
The market has Alvi at ~70% odds, and I decided to buy "Yes" shares based on that matchup.
If Alvi gets the win, that’s ~$14.14 profit from this position.
UFC fans, what do you think - does Alvi get it done?
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the worst Pentagon visit in internet history
-Logan Alexander Paul
-Jake Joseph Paul
-Grew up on Vine
-Then came YouTube pranks
-Logan filmed a dead body in Japan
-Uploaded it for views
-CryptoZoo
-WWE
-Prime
-“I’m a changed man”
-Jake boxed Tyson and Joshua
-Got knocked out
-Broke his jaw
-Both attended Trump’s inauguration
-With Conor McGregor
-Jake spoke at rallies
-Hung out with politicians
-Last Thursday, the Pentagon welcomed them
-“Meeting with our warriors”
-Arrived with Nakisa Bidarian
-Gave pep talks to troops
-Imagine Logan Paul motivating you to die for Israel
-The next day, Jake visited the Treasury
-The internet roasted Logan’s haircut
-Everyone asking: “what are we doing?”
-They call it “supporting the troops”
-They call it “patriotism”
Worst part?
They actually mean it
Department of War 🇺🇸
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the @Kalshi vs @Polymarket sports gap looks very different when you zoom in on nfl moneylines
but the nfl moneyline numbers tell a more interesting story
looking at recent midweek games:
-9 sep:
>kalshi - $29.12m
>polymarket - $9.84m
-10 sep:
>kalshi -$21.42m
>polymarket - $8.70m
-17 sep:
>kalshi - $20.74m
>polymarket - $15.56m
that puts polymarket at 33.8% → 40.6% → 75.1% of kalshi's volume across those games
and that's the part i find interesting
the headline gap in sports can get distorted by combos, while single-game markets can look much closer
kalshi has also expanded its NFL spreads, totals and props, while polymarket has its own growing combo ecosystem
so the real competition may not be “who has more sports volume?”
it may be where that volume is actually coming from
definitely something worth watching as the nfl season develops
chart source: Avi Atkin
Graph below is taker volume (NOT notional volume) for recent midweek NFL games at Kalshi/Poly (US + defi). Not a huge gap!
A lot of the gap we are seeing between Kalshi and Poly/the field at the top line for sports is increasingly from combos.
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honestly, this is one of the most realistic takes on AI coding
use AI for research, testing and finding mistakes
but still understand what you’re building
more code ≠ more good products
AGI is still very far. My test project percolator, I would have been able to ship already if I was solo full time coding it.
Where ai was excellent is in the design and spec research phase and fuzzing for bugs (until the overlords crippled the models).
1) Use ai to research the spec. Write the spec by hand, have ai find bugs in the spec.
2) Write the code by hand. Have ai find bugs in the code.
Quality should be better. Actual number of good products shipped to market is unlikely better today than pre model days.
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Jake Paul wants to rewrite the U.S. Constitution
-@jakepaul
-Says the U.S. Constitution needs an update
-Questions whether the Second Amendment still makes sense
-The Second Amendment was written in 1791
-Back then, modern military technology didn’t exist
-No drones
-No fighter jets
-No missiles
-No nuclear weapons
-Says civilians today could never match modern military power
-Questions whether the amendment can still serve its original purpose
-Says America has completely changed since 1791
Jake Paul just walked straight into America’s biggest constitutional debate
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I ended up losing ~$86 on Polymarket betting on UFC today
I won $51.48 on a 5-pick UFC combo and another $8.41 on Arman Tsarukyan, but unfortunately lost $146 on Ivo Baranevskyi to beat Alonzo Menifield.
So despite hitting some of my picks, the Baranevskyi loss outweighed the wins and put me at -$86.11 overall.
It’s a good reminder that risk and losses are always part of betting. Even when you feel confident about a pick, anything can happen once the fight starts.
Never bet money you’re afraid to lose
I put $146 on Iwo Baraniewski to beat Alonzo Menifield today, with a potential payout of ~$212
Baraniewski is 9-0 and has finished all 3 of his UFC fights in the first round
-7 of his 9 wins came by KO/TKO
-all 3 UFC wins came in under 4 minutes total
Menifield is dangerous and has won 3 of his last 4, but I really like the R/R here
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