Macro Regime: policy carries it, inflation drags.
Where we stand
Regime score: 59, wind mixed (‑2.3 w/w, +0.5 m/m)
History: 77th percentile — firmer than roughly three of four days over the past five years
Lead engine: Policy, 81, strong
Drag engine: Inflation, 32, weak
Only 3 of 6 engines supportive
What's driving it
Policy: 2Y at 3.71%, down 9 bps, and 2s10s steepened to +103 bps (+13 bps over 21 days) — the rate path is cooperating rather than fighting.
Inflation: WTI 87.06 (‑5.6%) and gold 4,680.6 (+15.6%) pulling opposite ways. Energy softening while the hedge bid builds is not a clean disinflation read.
Risk Appetite, 76 and improving, explains +36.6% of the move off neutral. VIX 15.13, down 19.1%.
Growth, 62, holds constructive on copper +3.8%, but copper/gold is ‑10.1% in three weeks — the largest negative in the wind.
Positioning read
Favors duration and credit beta: the steepening curve plus HYG/LQD +0.8% says the funding side is intact.
Argues against pro-cyclical commodity and industrial tilt — industrials/SPY ‑4.5%, IWM/SPY ‑1.8%.
Watch next
Gold against crude. Gold bidding while WTI slides keeps Inflation a drag and pulls Growth with it; crude firming as gold cools is what flips the engine.