Huge. Bitcoin has now performed worse than US Treasuries in 2025

Friday’s selloff sent % of S&P 500 members making new 1-month lows up to 38%, just shy of recent high in beginning of August … share now starting to roll back over

TTF Prices Tumble 11% European natural gas futures dropped over 11% to €35.9/MWh on Tuesday, hitting their lowest level in more than a week, after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement betwe... More here: tradingeconomics.com/commodi…

Yield curves keep steepening as investors stay away from buying 10-year notes. The gap between US 10-year and 5-year yields is the widest since 2021.

Brent crude oil fell by nearly 9% yesterday … largest daily decline since August 2022

The cost of protecting against a correction in [QQQ], which tracks the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index, is climbing with less than a month to go until Trump’s 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs potentially ends.

You know who to thank

The dollar continues to go straight down

The stable genius & chosen one restoring global confidence in US markets like you've never seen before.

stocks are shooting higher after that headline about Trump saying Musk would be gone from the admin soon

Look at the wide dispersion around the "longer run" dots. No real agreement on where they're heading.

The word — “transitory” — is back at the Federal Reserve as Chair Powell characterizes the price effects of tariffs as a one-off. I would have thought that, particularly after the big policy mistake of earlier this decade and given all the current uncertainties, some Fed officials would show greater humility. It’s simply too early to say with any regress of confidence that the inflationary effects will be transitory, especially given that companies and households still have fresh in their minds the recent history of high unanticipated inflation. #economy #inflation

Something for everyone. Good news: Based on forecasts Fed believes that any upward pressure to inflation won't last beyond this year. Bad news: They've downgraded the outlook for growth and haven't responded by projecting additional cuts.

Behold your new volatility regime VIX curve now inverted:

Treasuries Gain as Trump Transition Talk Fuels Recession Angst Trump said “a period of transition” & Bessent “a detox period” referring to the privatization of the economy. Seems to be preemptively finding an alibi for demand destruction from tariffs bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Almost seems like shrinking economic growth & falling stock market is all part of Trump's plan for lowering Treasury rates. Makes you wonder what he means by "a little disturbance "

Nasdaq $QQQ on the verge of falling below its 200D moving average for the first time since early August 🚨

Latest Atlanta Fed GDP Now: -2.8% annualized growth in Q1. And BTW, if you look at "private GDP" it would be even worse at -3.8% (my calculations based on their component details).

On February 28, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -1.5%: bit.ly/32EYojR. #ATLFedResearch Download our EconomyNow app or go to our website for the latest GDPNow nowcast: bit.ly/2TPeYLT.

#ES_F Technically, we have not yet completed a lower low for the E-mini S&P 500 futures. AVWAP from the September lows remains in focus.