Maybe Susan Collins, Roger Marshall, Ashley Hinson, Mike Rogers, Dan Sullivan, John Sununu, Jon Husted, Michelle Tafoya, and even Ken Paxton will all win. I know serious people who think each of those outcomes is possible. Maybe Republican House losses will be at a minimum. Maybe James Blair & Co. will cleverly deploy the president in the closing days of the campaign to rally the base and attract independents to the Republican side using wedge issues. Maybe there are opposition research and get-out-the-vote programs that are about to swamp Democratic candidates from coast to coast. Maybe the Democratic Party’s views on socialism and trans rights are a ticking time bomb for the opposition. Maybe some or all of those things are true and, once again, the political magic and stylings of Donald John Trump are being underestimated by the estimators. Maybe. But as I sift through my inboxes and social media feeds over the most recent extended news cycle, what I see instead is the possibilities that the wheels are coming off for a political figure who is swimming against the tide of a Blue tsunami as big as Connecticut, not because Ken Martin is suddenly a genius, but because an unpopular war and high consumer prices is no way to win a midterm election. And, remember, I write this as someone who has been a leading proponent for over a decade of the view that Donald Trump is second only to Bill Clinton over the last forty years as a political athlete. So, if you are looking for support for the theory that those wheels are coming off the Trump White House bus in the context of the midterms, consider: * This new taxpayer-funded and blatantly political TV ad featuring the president is as obviously illegal as it is appalling (including to many Republicans I have heard from). * The president is considering spending one of his days on the road between now and Election Day in….Alabama???!! * Florida and Kansas are among the many Red places that have sprung a lot of electoral leaks that are going to need to be plugged and fast. * The media ban is considered stupid, ill advised, doomed, and counterproductive but way more people than just Peter Baker (including, again, by many of my pro-Trump Republican sources). * The diesel export ban morass is an own-goal failure on at least three levels, and there is now both no easy answer or route out of the political expectations and policy messes. * The rumors have started back up that MAGA Inc. will not spend down its cash pile to help Republican candidates, causing all sorts of finger pointing and teeth gnashing. * The efforts of GOP candidates to distance themselves from the president to save themselves are only just getting underway -- and while the White House is (mostly) fine with it ("they gotta do what they gotta do to win"), the defections produce a lot of negative news stories and no one thinks the president will actually be fine with it. * Mr. Trump’s approval rating are in the toilet, fueled by lost support from key groups like young men, women, Hispanics, and independents. * On the Warsh watch, there are swirling interactions between interest rates, the bond market, the size of the debt and deficit, and AI spending dangers that could lead to an economic calamity. * Efforts to get an October Surprise deal with Tehran are almost certainly an illusion and a trap for a dozen reasons, including the inconsistencies of U.S. “allies” in the region about what they want. * Unless there is some big surprise today, the Xi summit looks like a bunch of pageantry with no prospect of helping Republicans in the midterms (and maybe to the contrary). * Peggy Noonan speaks for many when she suggests the president is completely bolloxing up AI for the long term, but/and/also being so pro-AI and data center could go down in history as one of the factors that cost his party majority control of both chambers. To be continued…. This is an excerpt from today's edition of my premium daily newsletter "WWoN Concierge Coverage." To get the newsletter and become a member, go to walkingduck.com/mark

Incredible. First @SecMullinDHS claimed that @DHSgov identified 15,903 noncitizens on Nevada’s voter roll. Then DHS officials said, no no no, that’s just people we flagged, here’s the names of 185 people we KNOW aren’t citizens. All 185 were citizens. DHS got 100% wrong.

It's very funny that the "unconventional path" he's claiming they took is just... breaking the rules

Unfortunately for Republicans, the situation is very easy to describe: 1. Trump won a cost-of-living election 2. Then he publicly announced a plan to raise the price of imports 3. Then he even-more-publicly started a war that raised the price of gas 4. Meanwhile, he got rich on crypto scams, while engaging in downright Pynchonian misadventures with the reflecting pool and ballroom, which sent the unmistakeable signal that "I care more about random bullshit than America's money problems ... and also I'm not even good at executing on the random bullshit"

GOP scandals: Susan Collins took bribes. Lauren Boebert had sex with 3 staffers. Max Miller damaged his daughter's collarbone. Trump's son's wedding afterparty was paid by a Russian tied to Putin. Democratic scandal: Peltola asked staffers to feed a pet. And got mad sometimes.

Since @HunterYurachek summoned the national media to spew his propaganda and lay out his “successes” in the spirit of transparency (behind a paywall), I figured I’d run through a few of his failures in football - you know, the sport that pays the bills and is the entire subject of the outrage - for free on here. - 37-63 overall record, 14-53 in the SEC - Three 2-10 seasons (2018, 2019, 2025) with a fourth likely on the way - 12 straight losses to FBS opponents - 1-10 at home vs. SEC teams since 2023 - 9 straight home losses to power-conference teams - Lost 43-10 at Utah and 45-17 at home to Georgia this month - Chad Morris era: 4-18, 0-14 SEC, ~$10M buyout guaranteed by the UA - Whiffed on hiring Lane Kiffin because he balked at entering a “bidding war” - Gave Pittman a raise and extension in 2022 with no one else trying to hire him - Kept Pittman after 4-8 in 2023 and 6-6 with a looming hip surgery in 2024 then paid ~$9M to fire him 5 games into 2025 - Lost to Memphis in 2025, then hired Memphis' coach (arguably the least-supported option by the fanbase) - Sept 2025: "Coach Pittman did not have the resources he needed to appropriately compete in this conference." Resources are the AD's job. - Dec 2025: new money "will push us to the top half" in talent acquisition - Sept 2026: The Athletic estimates Arkansas is LAST in SEC roster spending (~$22-25M vs. ~$33-38M league avg) - Our head coach spent most of his first offseason fundraising instead of focusing on football; again, the AD’s job - Fought NIL and the evolution of CFB tooth and nail from the onset instead of embracing it - 2023: Op-ed asking Congress to limit NIL, saying revenue sharing would "collapse the entire system" - 2024: Told fans revenue sharing would level the playing field - No athletics GM until March 2025. No football GM until Dec 2025. - Today: "Looking back, I would have established a general manager-type position earlier." You don’t say?! - 3% fee on concessions - ~10% of department staff cut in 2025 - Reseated Bud Walton and Baum; ousting lifelong fans from long-held seats to make up for his lack of fundraising - Sept 2026: "Generating revenue comes at the expense of your fan base." - Has overseen the worst era in the history of Arkansas football, much of which can be directly attributed to his shortcomings Other sports are thriving because they were either established before Yurachek got here or they’re run by coaches he didn’t hire (or don’t involve themselves with him in any capacity). Basketball is Cal and John Tyson. Baseball is fully DVH (who can’t stand HY). Football is the one sport with his fingerprints all over it and it has failed for 8 years, but suddenly he has a plan. He says the work started last year, but it should’ve started well before that. It’s too late. He’s always too late. It’s time for someone else’s plan - regardless of what this paid-for puff piece says. #FireHunterYurachek

If you elect me as your next U.S. Senator, the letters next to my name that matter will be the AR.

I’m Hallie Shoffner, and I approve this message. Because it’s time to fight for Arkansas.

This is literally the best news I’ve seen in awhile. November is coming. And there will be a reckoning for the cruelty inflicted upon US citizens, for the blatant corruption and for the abandonment of the working class by the Republican Party. The gig is up.

Trump’s net worth hit $7 billion in 2026. That’s triple where it was in early 2024, according to Forbes data.

Jfc. The next Dem President needs to put an absolute dog in charge of the DoJ. I want there to be SO many corruption investigations that the DoJ needs 5x the budget. We need to convict everyone who thought they were above the law so the message is clear: never again.

Are we serious, @SEC? LSU begins this season with six (6) consecutive night games. Meanwhile, you’ve got four potentially unbeaten teams playing on 10/3, including Georgia. We need accountability and transparency.

Vote. Her. Out.

A toaster is a wedding gift. A private-island party paid for by a Putin-connected oligarch is something else. Republicans nearly wore out the subpoena machine investigating Hunter Biden’s foreign relationships. We should not unplug it now. ‘Trust us’ was not enough then, and it is not enough now.

Disappointing that a former president could watch what his party has become, see the damage it’s caused, and still choose to help keep it in power.

ARKANSAS' CHRIS MARSHALL WITH AN INSANE ONE-HANDER AGAINST NO. 2 GEORGIA 😱 (via @RazorbackFB)

Whoever took this deserves a raise

How long has she been in our country? And why can’t she speak English? A 4 year old is easier to understand.

And so here we are. This statement from Trump blows my mind. That a sitting president would not let any renovations to a public building go on unless he gets to first put his name in the said building… What a sad state of affairs. What a tragedy. Actually, how small minded, how narcissistic. Actually great men, devoted to public service and the public good do not act like this. It seems that this man will not rest until his name is permanently connected to the name of a great president, whose memory this building was dedicated to. Imagine spending your time and your days focused on this, as everyday Americans struggle with healthcare, gas prices, rent, and food. Imagine spending your days focused on this, while a war rages under your leadership. Enough said. Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Truly incredible amount of corruption pouring out of the Missouri Republican Party.