UK-based investment analyst (ex-macro, now global equities), interested in econ & markets, defence, infra, etc. bearishviews.substack.com/

London, England
Woman on the Elizabeth Line complimented my James Bond outfit?
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Like the early morning mist, or a weak viral illness
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Boo! Gone too quickly, with too little notice!
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What’s crazy about this, aside from the inevitable abuse & disaster, is that it’s obviously a policy that’s grown out of charity land and passed through the civil service unopposed. Complete sector capture
From today, charities can apply to sponsor refugees through new, capped Named Community Sponsorship and Refugee study safe and legal routes. Sponsors will provide accommodation, integration support and help finding work. First arrivals are expected in autumn 2027.
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Poundland has filed to enter administration, putting 11,000 jobs at risk just weeks before Christmas, including here in Brixton. I stand with Poundland workers and @UsdawUnion. The owners must engage with workers and ministers, exploring every option to save jobs and shops.
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It should be possible for every subsequent victim of this criminal to be able to sue the judge personally.
Kosovan criminal who stole from disabled people can't be deported as she is 'culturally and socially integrated' in Britain, judge rules trib.al/Ed7fyXd
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Schrodinger’s tax relief for business owners: A tax break that simultaneously exists and doesn’t exist. It’s a great tax scheme, but no one qualifies for it.
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Agreed. Sadly, the tax simplification agenda continues to be endorsed by 100% of think tanks and 0% of chancellors.
fees like lots of fiddling, short-term things, new complications - a 'young entrepreneurs allowance', 'starter ISA', different business rates exemption threshold for retail, leisure & hospitality ... etc . I don't hear a clear, coherent vision or a simplification of tax system
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Pretty bad budget for founders.
The UK budget is in. Here's everything you need to know: 🇬🇧 No exit tax or increase in capital gains 🇬🇧 Brand new "founder’s relief” - 10% tax up to £10m lifetime gains and BADR thresholds cut by half 🇬🇧 The non-compete ban we already knew about, but slightly more fleshed out 🇬🇧 The additional AI money, which we already knew about, but in more detail 🇬🇧 Some very important changes to visas to attract better talent to the UK 🇬🇧 £5bn for BBB including more money to back female founders 🇬🇧 "Young Entrepreneurs Allowance" which covers living costs for young entrepreneur I have probably missed some bits but overall this is a lot more pro-tech and pro-entrepreneur than I think people were expecting. Great stuff from @adepledge, @Dom_Hallas and all those working tirelessly behind the scenes to advocate for a strong entrepreneurial economy here in the UK. LETS GO
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There is something seriously wrong at the BBC. This is the headline they used for a Muslim peace activist who was murdered by an Islamist group for preaching against radicalism.
Controversial Islamic cleric shot dead in northern Nigeria bbc.in/4sto6Fj
Community note
Sheikh Yahaya Ibrahim Masussuka was a prominent moderate Sufi preacher in Nigeria known for advocating interfaith dialogue and opposing violent extremism. Ansaru claimed responsibility, citing his peace efforts as the motive. bbc.com/news/articles/… pmnewsnigeria.com/2026/10/27/pop
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Cheers to successive governments for making building a business in Britain ever more worthwhile. Really feeling the encouragement. This graph shows what’s happened to Business Asset Disposal Relief, previously called Entrepreneurs’ Relief. It reduces the Capital Gains Tax you pay on qualifying profits when you sell a business you’ve built. “Why should entrepreneurs pay less tax?” Because the argument for it is about encouraging people to take risks: put their savings into a business, go without a reliable salary, employ people and build something that might ultimately be worth nothing. A successful exit can represent years of work and financial uncertainty, rather than a single year’s earnings. You can debate what the incentive should be. But look at the direction of travel. The tax rate was 10%. It rose to 14% in April 2025 and 18% in April 2026. Meanwhile, the lifetime amount of qualifying gains fell from a peak of £10 million to £1 million in 2020. Now the government has announced it will halve again to £500,000 from April 2027. That’s a lifetime limit. Not an annual allowance. And it isn’t tax-free: you still pay 18% on qualifying gains within it, with normal Capital Gains Tax rates applying above it. Higher tax on the reward. Less of the reward qualifying for relief. But please, do keep taking the risks, creating the jobs and growing the economy. Apparently, that part’s still on us. @andyburnham @JohnHealey_MP @KemiBadenoch
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The hidden tax measure in the Budget is huge for people paying tax under self-assessment - sole traders, partners, landlords, retired investors. For 6th April 2028-29, you currently pay 50% of your income tax late in the tax year in question (in January 2029), 50% just after the year end (in July 2029) with any make-up payment in January 2030. Under the new proposals you will pay your tax perhaps monthly or quarterly (TBC) from April 2029 onwards. A rough analysis suggests the impact is to draw about 50% of your tax bill forward, a huge cashflow boost to HMRC and a significant funding issue for the self-employed. The Treasury recognises this, and expects to raise £1.3bn of additional tax in 29/30 as a result of this change. The cashflow impact of the accelerated charge will send some businesses to the wall.
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Might as well jump on the trend...
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They think…? But seriously; I find the New Statesman satisfies all my curiosity on that front.
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You do, however, lead a team of priests...
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Roughly 25-40k UK businesses have annual turnover of £10 million or more. The full Founders’ Relief tests: • founder still holding ≥25% from the very start of trading • five years of continuous ownership and UK residency • 15+ qualifying full-time employees excluding directors and contractors • sustained 25% compound growth from a £10m base or equivalent R&D spend • and the company still carrying on its original trade … So how many qualify? The pool of companies that could ever produce a qualifying disposal are extremely small - on the order of hundreds to low thousands at most, or roughly 0.01% of the overall UK business population. 🫠
The UK budget is in. Here's everything you need to know: 🇬🇧 No exit tax or increase in capital gains 🇬🇧 Brand new "founder’s relief” - 10% tax up to £10m lifetime gains and BADR thresholds cut by half 🇬🇧 The non-compete ban we already knew about, but slightly more fleshed out 🇬🇧 The additional AI money, which we already knew about, but in more detail 🇬🇧 Some very important changes to visas to attract better talent to the UK 🇬🇧 £5bn for BBB including more money to back female founders 🇬🇧 "Young Entrepreneurs Allowance" which covers living costs for young entrepreneur I have probably missed some bits but overall this is a lot more pro-tech and pro-entrepreneur than I think people were expecting. Great stuff from @adepledge, @Dom_Hallas and all those working tirelessly behind the scenes to advocate for a strong entrepreneurial economy here in the UK. LETS GO
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1/ Lots of people asking about the new 10% "Founders' Relief" from the Budget. I've read the HMRC technical consultation. Short version: unless you've built a £10m+ turnover business that's still growing fast, it isn't for you. 🧵
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New Anthropic research: How AI agents shape experts' judgment calls When experts delegate work to an agent, do they still make the key decisions? We tested this in a randomized trial with 50 professional data analysts.
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James retweeted
Big downgrade in GDP growth forecast for next year from OBR 2026: 1.2% (was 1.1 in spring forecast) 2027: 1% (1.6) 2028: 1.6% (1.6) 2029: 1.8% (1.5) 2030: 1.7% (1.5) 2031: 1.6%
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Remember when Antoinette Fernandez (Green Party speaker of Hackney Council) bemoaned the British bombardment of Lagos, forcing her great great maternal grandfather from power? She forgot to mention the reason why. And you won't hear a single peep of apology from this lot about it.
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Not wholly fair, her ancestor was Oba Dosunmu, who was installed after his father replacing Oba Kosoko. They swore to work with us to abolisb slavery, they were just deeply ineffective (to the point we suspected they weren't trying), and we pushed them into exile in England.
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"Being progressive is when you can't ever truly be British except by unsullied blood for at least 6 generations"
“Proper Britain here we come”
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Progressives don’t call the King “German” thus implying an ethnic component to British nationality challenge: IMPOSSIBLE
“Proper Britain here we come”
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James retweeted
In 1925, Westminster abolished Kent’s ancient Gavelkind inheritance customs, along with other customary rights affecting land and inheritance. The abolition of Gavelkind had already been attempted in 1836 when a Bill was introduced, but Kent was so indignant, it was dropped.
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