you can fade me but you cant fade the exchange endgame | business: manofthevig@gmail.com
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With prediction markets taking over the timeline en mass last week I thought it may be time to break out my longform cap.
Wrote a little on where we are, where we’re going, and the hilarious delusion that is prediction markets twitter at the moment.
open.substack.com/pub/manoft…
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American Gaming Association and Victor Rocha fighting over who can make more bad faith arguments to defend their archaic monopolies instead of trying to compete
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L.O.L.
Really buried the lead here that the bet was executed ~at a randomly higher amount~ and not just worse odds
🧵Live RFQ’s on @kalshi are problematic at the moment, with the ramifications endured exclusively by retail users. Video below.
NO/TB line selected in the RFQ was 43.5. The actual request (and execution) was done at 49.5.
Far more egregious, the quoted price of (cont’d ⬇️)
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Man of the Vig retweeted
I’m hiring a prediction markets expert to work with our product and operations teams and monitor our market offering and liquidity. Fun role, right in the middle of everything we’re doing.
DMs are open - tell me one thing we should add or change to improve our offering.
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In honor of missing almost a month of substack posts I’ve decided to drop a week-long series on a range of topics. The first in that series releases tomorrow, and covers why the introduction of igaming to CFTC-governed markets would be a Plaxico Burress moment for the industry
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Who has more success over the next 5 years if dropped into identical scenarios
69%
CJ Stroud
31%
Bryce Young
74 votes • Final results
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You are an NFL GM with guaranteed job security for 3 years. Which NFL QB do you build your franchise around.
28%
Bo Nix
12%
Bryce Young
42%
CJ Stroud
19%
Trevor Lawrence
279 votes • Final results
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Insider trading is a bug, not a feature, and should not be glorified in any form. In addition to being unethical (and illegal), it punishes the market makers and recreational participants that are the backbone of markets. Pls fix @mansourtarek_ @luanalopeslara @shayne_coplan
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Big props to the Novig team for the Woj sponsorship; have to assume David Letterman wasn’t available.
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Revisiting this as 45 days in PM world are 10 years in every other world. May have been wrong on the ~role~ of institutions, but pretty clear exchanges believe the deeper the ties to financial powerhouses, the better the chance to survive
Pretty obvious we’re still on the nascent stages of the exchange ecosystem in both opportunity and regulation. Would expect to see a meaningful push to onboard as much institutional liquidity as possible prior to the next election & potential shifts in the regulatory winds
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Gonna be a tough day in the Spruce Point office when they discover the existence of market makers and market making fees, and that “buy yes” and “buy no” actually can’t be used to derive total fees for a market.
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The @sprucepointcap short report on DK includes some of the worst industry-centric research I’ve ever seen. Good lord. Funniest part is the conclusion is still probably right despite fucking up almost all details in the middle.
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“Spruce Point’s believes there is some perception by the market recently that the exchanges (sic) hold rate is 4%. Spruce Point’s research indicates the hold rate is closer to 1.5%” - LOLs in “they’re only counting fee rev”
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