Reducing AI x-risk by informing the public. We propose a Conditional AI Safety Treaty: time.com/7171432/conditional…

Amsterdam, Netherlands
Today, we propose the Conditional AI Safety Treaty in @TIME as a solution to AI's existential risks. AI poses a risk of human extinction, but this problem is not unsolvable. The Conditional AI Safety Treaty is a global response to avoid losing control over AI. How does it work?
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No @JensenHuang, AI existential risk is not in fact an engineering problem. Rather, it is a coordination problem, as many technical researchers who started out trying to solve the alignment problem, have by now found out. It is indeed solvable, by raising awareness of the risk of human extinction that AI causes and by implementing regulation to keep us all safe, just as has been done in almost every industry. Every engineer, no doubt including Jensen Huang himself, knows full well that things very seldomly go as expected the first try. If we get to recursive self-improvement, the takeoff is fast, and the AI ceiling is high enough for a takeover, we get only one chance to do safety right, which is far too little given the stakes. According to some, alignment is not even fundamentally solvable. Trying to build a sandbox, which is what @nvidia is doing, may work for agents that currently exist, but will not work for RSI resulting in superintelligence, which would find a multitude of unforeseeable ways to break out. We need to have policy implemented that keeps us well clear of RSI and far removed from takeover-level AI. Huang's sandboxes unfortunately do little to change this.
Jensen Huang: "We all need to hope it's an engineering problem. If it's not an engineering problem, it's not solvable."
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Latest in a long list of high-profile entities hacked by @OpenAI: the United Nations. Hopefully incidents like these increase the urgency of @UN calls to globally pause AI development!
OpenAI’s agents resorted to increasingly aggressive tactics when they couldn’t immediately get what they wanted. theverge.com/ai-artificial-i…
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Existential Risk Observatory ⏸ retweeted
The purpose of the AI industry should be to produce tools that, in the human hand, will improve human prosperity and welfare. It should not be to create a "successor species" to the human race. Entertaining such a thought makes you, de facto, the enemy of all present and future humans.
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Existential Risk Observatory ⏸ retweeted
SCOOP: OpenAI, Anthropic and security researchers are investigating tens of thousands of incidents - not dozens - in which their frontier models took steps that outside evaluators would consider problematic, sources told Axios. The sheer volume of incidents found in our reporting indicate that the problem is orders of magnitude more complex than what is currently publicly known and disclosed. The findings also raise questions about what level of control anyone working on AI development can expect to have over their own technology, and whether these kinds of incidents are becoming synonymous with frontier deployment. Read my latest for Axios here: axios.com/2026/09/26/openai-…
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Existential Risk Observatory ⏸ retweeted
30 years ago today, I signed the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty. In the three decades since, the world has seen only 10 nuclear tests, compared with more than 2,000 in the five decades before. As AI gives us new capabilities we could only have imagined then, we should remember something we learned in the nuclear age: even when countries disagree, we can still work together to reduce the risks we all face. cfr.org/articles/bill-clinto…
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Existential Risk Observatory ⏸ retweeted
Bill Gates warns AI is powerful enough to cause "a billion deaths" axios.com/2026/09/25/bill-ga…
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It is hard to overstate how crucial and amazingly good MIRI's work on technical governance is. Still, a concern: "large-scale AI hardware diversion would be difficult to conceal", this post says. That's true, but the smaller training runs get, the more we run into an actual problem here. According to our paper "How to Catch a GPU: A Taxonomy of Verification and Enforcement Mechanisms for International AI Agreements", rogue data centers below (very roughly) 10,000 GPUs may become hard to detect (link in the comments). We basically have to hope that takeover-level AI remains larger than that, else no one has a plan.
.@ericschmidt asks an important question about an AI pause: "how do you verify it?" In a new post, technical governance researcher Naci Cankaya answers this question and more:
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If you don't think RSI possibly leading to ASI is near, a ban doesn't hurt. If you do think it may be near, a ban is urgently required. Anyone who thinks ASI, if and when it would occur, would pose a risk, should be able to get behind a ban.
1. fully agree w @JeffLadish that AI companies aren’t ready to handle superintelligent AI. 2. OpenAI hasn’t even handled the current breed of agents (far from superintelligent) well. 3. the US government has not handled the current situation well, giving little confidence that they would be able respond adequately to future technologies that might be more dangerous.
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Don't release it if it's not safe goes for GPUs as well, @JensenHuang! It is not just the labs causing existential risk, it's @nvidia as well. Currently, tens of thousands of GPUs are needed to build Hugging Face attack-level AI. But the trend is downward and powerful open weight models are coming. Huang shares responsibility, and NVIDIA should share liability, for what will inevitably be done with their products.
More than anything since Hugging Face, this podcast raised my p(doom). A very smart guy, with a very big financial interest in the intelligence explosion, spouting very, very much nonsense to downplay the risks. 1/5
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We appreciate the chance to contribute to the global existential risk debate through @AlJazeera: “The US and China must agree on AI capabilities red lines that will not be crossed. Most crucially, AI must never get powerful enough for recursive self-improvement,” said Otto Barten, director of the Netherlands-based Existential Risk Observatory. “We do not know where the positive feedback loop of ever-smarter AIs creating ever-smarter AIs without human supervision will end and what these agents will finally be able to do,” Barten added.
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If AI labs individually slow down, they get outcompeted. If AI labs coordinate to slow down, they may breach anti-trust law. If the US unilaterally regulates, China goes ahead. The obvious solution that we need right now is a pacing agreement between the US and China!
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Existential Risk Observatory ⏸ retweeted
Interesting back and forth. Ezra describes the HF incident, Jensen says "well they shouldn't release the product." Ezra says "this product wasn't released," and Jensen's response is that if they say they can't contain their experiments then "we have to shut the labs down"
Tomorrow on the show: @JensenHuang, the CEO of NVIDIA, who thinks A.I. fear is getting way out of hand.
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Since artificial superintelligence may escape human control and could cause human extinction, banning it is sensible and indeed unavoidable. We therefore support this bill from @SenSanders and @RepCasar.
The leading experts are clear: AI is rapidly escaping our control. Congress must act NOW. Today I’m introducing legislation to permanently ban artificial superintelligence and pause advanced AI until clear safety rules are in place.
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You wouldn't know from this platform, but AI xrisk activism is exploding! Pull The Plug disrupted a UK AI event, saying "everyday people are afraid" and citing 10% chance of human extinction. On Instagram, they got 147,000 likes. Humanity is starting to respond.
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