🌕 Happy Mid-Autumn Festival! Under the same full moon, we celebrate reunion, connection, and the journeys we’re building together. To all the builders, traders, partners, and communities moving the future of on-chain finance forward, may the road ahead be bright and full of possibility. Wishing everyone a joyful Mid-Autumn Festival from XStable. 💛🐇

From S4 to S5 — excited to see the next group of builders join EASY. Applications for Season 5 are now open. If you’re building something ambitious and thinking globally, it’s definitely worth checking out. 🚀

🔥 AI & Web3 Connect Night Private Party On the evening of Sept 22, we will connect outstanding creators, builders and projects to discuss emerging trends in AI and Web3. Special thanks to our partners: @Aster_DEX, @kem_app, @KiteAIChinese, @0xMantleCN, @predictdotfun, @sentient_zh, @tencentcloud, @UstablesZH, and @XStableAI, as well as @PANewsCN for media support.

🔥 AI & Web3 Connect Night Private Party On September 22, @xhunt_ai and @BiteyeCN are bringing together a private cocktail party of creators, builders, and industry leaders at North Bund, Shanghai. A night to connect, exchange ideas, and explore the new frontiers of AI × Web3. Big thanks to our partners: @Aster_DEX @kem_app @KiteAIChinese @0xMantleCN @predictdotfun @sentient_zh @tencentcloud @UstablesZH @XStableAI And special thanks to @PANewsCN for the media support. Looking forward to the gathering. 🚀

Tokenized markets are moving beyond issuance and into market infrastructure. As new regulatory pathways take shape, liquidity, trading, and settlement are becoming increasingly important layers of on-chain finance.

The Fed’s Latest Projections Point to a Different Macro Backdrop Beyond the rate hike itself, the September projections show a clear shift in the Fed’s view of the U.S. economy. For 2026, the Fed now projects: 🔸 GDP growth: 2.3% → up from 2.2% in June 🔸 Unemployment: 4.1% → down from 4.3% 🔸 PCE inflation: 3.7% → up from 3.6% 🔸 Core PCE inflation: 3.4% → up from 3.3% At the same time, the projected year-end policy rate moved from 3.8% to 4.1%. The combination is notable: stronger growth, a tighter labor market and slightly higher inflation — alongside a higher expected rate path. The Fed’s latest statement also described domestic spending as resilient, productivity growth as strong and capital investment as robust, while inflation remains elevated. The September meeting therefore marks more than a 25bp adjustment. The broader macro outlook itself has shifted toward an economy that is proving more resilient — and requiring tighter policy than the Fed expected just three months ago.

Fed Hikes 25bp as Dot Plot Signals Another Move This Year The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25bp to 3.75%–4.00%, marking its first rate hike since July 2023. The decision was unanimous, 12–0. The bigger signal came from the updated dot plot. Of the 18 officials submitting rate projections, 16 expect another rate hike before the end of 2026, pushing the expected policy path higher. The Fed also upgraded its growth outlook, lowered its unemployment projections and slightly raised near-term inflation forecasts — a combination consistent with keeping monetary policy tighter for longer. Gold reacted immediately. After trading near $4,390 ahead of the decision, prices dropped more than $50 within minutes as markets repriced the year-end rate outlook. With the September hike largely expected beforehand, the market reaction is now centered on what comes next: another potential hike, higher-for-longer rates, Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar. For Gold & FX markets, the Fed’s policy path into year-end is now back at the center of pricing.

FOMC Day 1: Gold & FX Markets Reprice Around a More Hawkish Fed The Federal Reserve’s September FOMC meeting is underway, with markets entering the two-day meeting after a sharp repricing in U.S. rates, Treasury yields and energy markets. Interest-rate futures now imply roughly a 93% probability of a 25bp rate hike at Wednesday’s meeting. At the Fed’s previous meeting in July, three voting members had already preferred a 25bp increase, indicating that support for tighter policy was already present before the latest inflation and energy-price pressures intensified. Treasury markets have moved sharply ahead of the decision. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 5.04%, its highest level since 2007, while the 2-year yield traded near 4.68%. Higher yields have tightened financial conditions and remained an important headwind for non-yielding assets such as gold. Energy prices are adding another layer of inflation pressure. Brent crude rose to around $108.75/bbl, while WTI reached about $105.83/bbl, reinforcing concerns that higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and complicate the Fed’s path back toward its 2% target. The dollar has also strengthened ahead of the decision, with the DXY trading around 99.68. Gold, meanwhile, has seen sharp two-way moves — falling below $4,300/oz earlier in the session before rebounding later in the day as markets reassessed how much tightening is already priced in. With the September hike now largely reflected in market pricing, attention is increasingly shifting toward the Summary of Economic Projections, the dot plot and the Fed’s guidance on the pace of further tightening. The September meeting is one of the scheduled FOMC meetings that includes updated economic projections. For Gold & FX markets, the next repricing may therefore depend less on the expected 25bp move itself and more on the projected rate path into year-end — particularly the outlook for another potential hike, Treasury yields and the dollar. FOMC decision: Sep. 16, 2:00 PM ET Press conference: 2:30 PM ET

Gold Falls as Fed Hike Odds Climb Ahead of FOMC Precious metals came under pressure as markets sharply repriced the Fed outlook. Gold fell toward $4,300, while silver, platinum and palladium also moved lower as the probability of a 25bp rate hike on Sep. 16 rose to roughly 85–90%. A firmer US dollar and higher Treasury yields added to the pressure, outweighing safe-haven demand from renewed Middle East tensions and elevated oil prices. With a hike now largely priced in, Wednesday’s focus may shift beyond the decision itself to the Fed’s guidance on what comes next. For gold and FX, the tone of the statement and press conference could matter just as much as the rate move.

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Gold took the hit, then bounced right back.

Inflation Stays Sticky as Fed Hike Bets Surge August CPI showed that inflation pressure remains difficult to shake. Headline CPI rose 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3% MoM, above the 0.2% market expectation, even as the annual core rate eased slightly to 2.4%. Energy was a major contributor, with gasoline prices rising 3.9% in August, but the pressure was not limited to fuel. Firm readings across several service categories added to concerns that underlying inflation may remain sticky. Coming just one day after a stronger PPI report, the data further strengthened the case for tighter monetary policy. Markets reacted quickly. Expectations for a September Fed rate hike jumped to around 90%, up from roughly 70% before the CPI release, while short-term Treasury yields moved higher as traders repriced the rate outlook. Gold saw sharp two-way volatility, initially falling toward $4,290 before rebounding toward $4,400. The recovery highlights an important point: with a September hike now heavily priced in, the next move may depend less on whether the Fed raises rates and more on what it signals about the path ahead. All eyes now turn to the September 16 FOMC meeting. A 25bp hike alone may no longer be the biggest surprise. The key question is whether the Fed signals that further tightening could follow.

#PPI Lifts Fed Hike Bets as Yields Rise and Gold Slides 📊 US inflation data put rates back at the center of the market on Thursday. August PPI rose 5.4% YoY, slightly above the 5.3% forecast, while core PPI increased 0.2% MoM, below expectations of 0.3%. The mixed report still kept inflation concerns alive, particularly as higher energy costs continue to complicate the outlook. Markets responded by repricing the Fed path. The probability of a rate hike at next week’s meeting climbed to around 70%, up from roughly 60–65% before the release. Treasury yields moved higher across the curve, with the 2-year yield rising to around 4.49% and the 10-year approaching 4.90%, while the 30-year yield climbed above 5.33%, its highest level since 2007. That repricing quickly spilled into precious metals and FX. A stronger US dollar and rising Treasury yields created a double headwind for precious metals, with gold falling further below $4,340, down around 1.4% on the day. Silver came under even heavier pressure, dropping around 4%. For FX, the same shift remains supportive for the dollar. As markets price a more hawkish Fed path, higher US yields and widening rate expectations relative to other major economies could continue to favor USD. The focus now turns to #CPI. The key question is whether the inflation pressure showing up in producer prices and energy costs remains concentrated there, or begins feeding more broadly into consumer prices. A hotter CPI could further strengthen the case for a September hike, keep Treasury yields and the dollar elevated, and extend the near-term pressure on gold and silver.

🖌️ Correction: Our official X handle is now @XStableAI. For the campaign tasks: 🔹 Follow @XStableAI on X to earn 50 CP 🔹 Join our TG@XStableRWA to earn 50 CP Please disregard the previous X handle reference to XStableRWA. Thank you for your understanding! 💛

Excited to keep pushing on-chain gold and FX forward. 🌐