This was a fantastic conversation with @chasepalmieri We talked about the @Strategy daily dividend announcement, $STRC buybacks, $SATA and market forces impacting price in both:

DAILY DIVIDENDS ON DECK: A look at Strategy Digital Credit @Strategy preferred offerings are sitting at ~$4.70B of Trading Volume across $STRC, $STRD, $STRF and $STRK over the last 6 weeks. As of 09-18-2026, preferred trading activity has recovered, with a notable reduction in concentration around $STRC: EoW 08-14: ~$637.1M traded on ~6.89M shares [-25.0%] EoW 08-21: ~$796.0M traded on ~8.62M shares [+24.9%] EoW 08-28: ~$925.0M traded on ~9.77M shares [+16.2%] EoW 09-04: ~$889.7M traded on ~9.34M shares [-3.8%] EoW 09-11: ~$551.2M traded on ~5.71M shares [-38.0%] EoW 09-18: ~$899.2M traded on ~9.47M shares [+63.1%] Note: “EoW” - [End of Week] “WoW” - [Week Over Week] In the 9-16 pref market read, the main observations were 1] Reduced activity, 2] A return toward the summer lull, and 3] increasing concentration in $STRC. This week changes the read on the first two and reverses the direction of the third, although it does not yet resolve the question of sustained (organic) demand. Total preferred dollar volume increased [63.1%], while share volume increased [65.6%]. If we adjust for having a week with five full trading sessions versus four (due to Labor Day), average daily dollar volume still rose [30.5%] and share volume [32.5%] with all four preferreds participating in that increase. Against EoW September 4, total activity has largely returned to its pre-holiday levels, with dollar volume [1.1%] higher and share volume [1.4%] higher; a recovery from the preceding week’s contraction. A notable shift is the composition of activity, with $STRC trading ~$764.3M and its share of total preferred dollar volume falling from [90.9%] to [85.0%]. Unlike the previous week, $STRC concentration declined while its turnover actually increased. Even after adjusting for trading sessions, compared to 9-11, the combined totals for $STRD | $STRF | $STRK rose from ~$49.9M to ~$134.8M, and their average daily dollar volume increased [116.1%]. Trading activity is now more spread outside $STRC, although it still accounts for roughly $85 of every $100 traded across the Strategy Digital Credit Complex. Buybacks and Liquidity Over the September 14–20 period, Strategy spent $174.0M repurchasing 1,771,238 STRC shares with an implied average purchase price of *~$98.24. With a total of ~$764.3M traded on ~7.78M shares, buybacks represented [22.76%] of $STRC dollar volume | [22.75%] of share volume. Both participation rates declined from approximately [27.79%] in the preceding reporting period. To take a fair look at this, we should separate the weekly total from the daily pace; repurchase spend increased [24.9%], but there were five trading sessions versus four. Average spend per trading session was effectively flat at $34.825M for EoW 9-11 versus $34.80M for EoW 9-18. Meanwhile, the average daily volume for $STRC increased [22.0%] showing that turnover recovered while Strategy's average repurchase pace was essentially unchanged. Across the nine disclosed buyback periods, Strategy has now repurchased ~11.73M $STRC shares for approx. $1.125B, at an implied average cost of ~$95.87. Over the matched 7-20-26 to 9-18-26 trading window, $STRC recorded ~$5.87B traded on ~61.89M shares with repurchases representing [19.17%] of total dollar volume and [18.96%] of share volume. [As of 9-20-26, Strategy has $875.1M remaining under their Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program.] On 9-18-26, $STRC closed at $98.51, [1.49%] below the $100 par level compared with $98.64 on Friday 9-11. More trading activity has not led to the offering trading at par (yet). Strategy’s preferred market is showing increased turnover, and the common stock has shown strong recovery in engagement, a meaningful improvement from last week's read; but there is not yet evidence of persistent demand across the entire capital stack. With the potential move to daily dividends that was announced today (9-25-26) {subject to shareholder approval} it will be interesting to see how the market responds and “front runs” the potential shift, if at all.

Daily Dividends are coming to $STRK | $STRF | $STRD | $STRC Many wanted them, well here they are:

Bitcoin, the fondle, the diddle and the waddle… At the time of this chart, Bitcoin was about $740 above its May high of $82,818. However, a weekly close below that level on Sunday, September 27 (just in time for Monday's Bitcoin Treasuries Conference) might “invalidate” that breakout. $BTC briefly surged to ~$87.4K on September 23, the same day the 10-year Treasury yield rose 15 basis points, from 4.96% to 5.11%. I thought $BTC’s $87K fondle would lead to a $90K diddle. Instead, it might do what it always does: kick us in the balls and leave everyone walking with a waddle.

Looking forward to NYC and seeing many of the great minds in the space in person again. I'll be speaking on "Strategy's 10-Year Strategy" and sharing my thoughts on the future of $BTC | $MSTR.

I agree with some of the framing from @TimmerFidelity here, but to be fair, A.I. can be (is) a secular revolution and still be subject to financing cycles. The focus on valuation and capital absorption echoes earlier points that I and others have made; the companies funding this build-out are very profitable. Another point I want to raise is that vendor financing isn’t new, so the continued talk of “circular deals” doesn't prove this is a “bubble.” The real question is whether or not cash flows continue to sustain | justify the investment, and the scale of market activity is enormous: the 13-stock basket of A.I. equities I track recorded ~$121T in cumulative dollar trading volume from Jan. 2023 through Sept. 22, 2026. Which brings me to my next point: The risks I’m watching are 1] funding demands outrunning cash generation, 2] credit tightening, or 3] a market correction that unwinds leveraged positions. $121T invites significant leverage | derivative positioning; while a sharp correction doesn't invalidate the secular investment thesis or mean a bubble has popped, it would spook the market and send capital running to the exits. That said, I expect continued capital-markets access to bridge potential funding gaps in 1], and broader economic incentives to help mitigate 2]. That leaves 3] as my personal “wild card”: a sentiment shift leading to a positioning unwind that moves faster than the “fundamentals”.

Bull Market Confirmed? I don't know about that. But, is $BTC going to diddle $90K? - Yep, me thinks so.

$BTC touched $87K and soon it'll fondle $90K (consensually of course).

$BTC | $MSTR: @Strategy is sitting at ~$94.46B in Trading Volume over the last 6 weeks. As of 09-18-2026, $MSTR is showing renewed engagement following the potential “cool-off” we discussed last week: EoW 08-14: ~$7.30B Traded on ~76.2M Shares [-9.1%] EoW 08-21: ~$19.48B Traded on ~180.1M Shares [+166.7%] EoW 08-28: ~$21.25B Traded on ~165.7M Shares [+9.1%] EoW 09-04: ~$17.92B Traded on ~133.8M Shares [-15.6%] EoW 09-11: ~$9.57B Traded on ~71.3M Shares [-46.6%] EoW 09-18: ~$18.94B Traded on ~137.3M Shares [+98.0%] Note: “EoW” - [End of Week] “WoW” - [Week Over Week] In last week's post, using the trading data from the week ending 9-11 as context; I noted that the market could be moving from a re-acceleration period into a justification period, where the market was testing whether August’s renewed engagement could hold. We now have a legitimate response to that question. After a shortened week due to Labor Day,  total dollar volume increased [98.0%] WoW, while share volume increased [92.7% WoW. Average daily dollar volume rose [58.4%] to ~$3.79B, while daily share volume rose [54.2%] to ~27.47M shares; a notable increase in the number of shares changing hands as opposed to higher prices simply lifting nominal dollar volume. If we compare these totals against the week ending 9-4-26 (the last full trading week) dollar volume was [5.7%] higher and share volume was [2.7%] higher. Trading activity has recovered beyond its pre-holiday level, but is below EoW August 28 by [10.9%] in dollar terms and [17.1%] in share terms. The trading activity was also somewhat concentrated last week: Friday 9-18 accounted for ~$8.15B traded on ~54.7M shares, representing [43.0%] of weekly dollar volume and [39.8%] of share volume. While this is entirely speculation, it's possible that the concentration we saw could be due to the fact that Friday was a Quadruple Witching options-expiration date with expiration related positioning exerting its effects. Additionally, because the market leverages Strategy to forward-price expectations on Bitcoin, the weekend surge we saw in Bitcoins price (rising from the Friday 9-18 close of around $80,875 to a Sunday close around $86,397) provides highly relevant context. The correlation between Bitcoin price and $MSTR price is well known, with recent interest in Strategy noticeably driven by Bitcoin's upward momentum. Should Bitcoin maintain this trend, the market could rapidly transition from a phase of justification into one of sustained acceleration and amplification.

You all know I'll never lie to you: 90K $BTC is in play.

When $BTC ⬆️ and $MSTR ⬆️ $STRC ⬆️ back to par. Bigger footprint, lower vol, slower to move. Leverage takes it down on an elevator, Capital Structure takes it back up with the stairs.

I've got a folder that's filled with screenshots of Bearish | FUD-ish takes on $MSTR that I can't wait to start sharing with you all.

Technical Analysis: $BTC Numba Go Up, Bears Are Cooked

$BTC | $MSTR | $STRC: Summary of Activities [1] Bought 1,771,238 shares of $STRC for $174M [2] Bought 950 $BTC for $75.7M [3] Used $57.4M of USD Reserve for Dividends | Debt [4] $875.1M left under the Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program.

$BTC: Oh hi there...

$MSTR: Hello and Good Morning to everyone, it's Dotday. The hallowed, and respected, Sunday tradition is back. @Strategy had ~$18.94B last week; an increase of 98% WoW. More than enough to buy a little more $BTC.

6 Months later. The Iran War is still going and likely will last into 2027. If it goes into 2027, don't be shocked if it still has no real resolution into 2028. Oil prices won't be coming down any time soon.

I usually fade weekend price action on $BTC (low volume, etc) BUT there's a real push to get the corn through the $82K level. If that happens...