Trading w/o the BS | Join the Outliers on YouTube, Substack, Discord - link in bio | 🇺🇸 Marine Vet | ft: Business Insider, Barchart, IG | MBA
Encinitas, CA
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$GME holding strong
lots of insider buying, RC has expanded his position several times now - one of the really cool CEOs to continually increase his stake in the company he runs.
options market continues to show massive call skew, 25D put skew is sitting at the 4th percentile over the last year. calls are expensive. VRP continues to print fat.
lots of premium sitting in the front terms as per usual, a mix of long and shorts. lots of short calls capitalizing on the high vol.
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people forget that win rate is probably the most misleading metric for traders, and only part of a much more important calculation - expected return.
win rates are completely useless on their own.
People miss the fact that a 20-30% win rate can make a ton of money in the markets.
It's all about probabilities not certainties in the market.
Many want the outcome before placing a probablistic bet which is impossible.
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today for skill development, we're focusing on strategy selection
for this, i often condition what i put on based on what tends to happen.
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“Spoke with a close friend who works on the floor. He said he’s NeVeR seen anything like this before!”
love all the FinTwit posts about “sOmEtHiNg GoInG oN” yea bro it’s called u being a retard
vague-posting doomerbait is lame as fuck, speak clearly and specifically about things or shut up. vague posting is lame
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markets change - its why as traders we need to continually adapt.
you could stubbornly say - the effect is still the same, the regime is just different then go through 4 years of exceedingly suboptimal results.
need to be more agile than that.
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Navigating Low $VIX environments based on 19 years of data
Is Low VIX a Trap? I Ran 19 Years of Data
youtu.be/MJX5QoAfLMw
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lets take a look inside the kelly criterion for bet sizing
w/ @KrisAbdelmessih
youtu.be/Xsj2yue-QKk
youtube.com/playlist?list=PL…
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this is silly.
for new traders, you in no way should pick a trading style that you simply like because of convenience or a romanticized view of trading.
these kind of posts idealize things a bit too much and can confuse new traders to focus on the wrong stuff.
dont worry about doing fun stuff during the day, focus on building an edge first. over time,
if you become successful, you can do whatever you want regardless of your average hold duration.
the ultimate goal is making a shit ton of money, when you do that, you control your time.
Why I choose swing trading!
I can get off the screens in the middle of the day and bang out a 10k run 🏃 enjoying the end of summer weather.
I can do anything I want throughout the day whilst my system can roll on autopilot.
All you have to do is accept that price is going to do whatever it’s going to do - whether you’re watching a one minute chart every single minute of the day, or off the screen relying on alerts.
Trade to live vs living to trade.
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Really interesting options activity in $GME today
youtu.be/xDlGMSj4rME
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and this is why most places learn to focus on the skills that positively predict capability.
for those saying gaming is net negative, how far do you take it? what if they cant cook well (cant follow a process), are fat or unfit? (undisciplined), etc?
if the persons resume was: i played video games - yeah bro, not gonna work.
when assessing capability, why not focus on the shit that matters for your field?
at deloitte, that was a lot of case studies before entering. designed to assess how you think and process information. i received zero questions regarding video games because it literally doesnt matter lol.
A kid who knows how to raid in WoW is unironically a better hire than 99% of non gamers. They develop team skills, coordination, leadership, how to master the respect of 40 people, how to share loot, maintaining a raid schedule, showing up on time, clear direct communication, how to get along with unique personalities, creating and executing on strategies, failing and trying again (perseverance), delayed gratification, etc. Invaluable skills are developed during raiding that are transferrable to the real world.
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