As a crypto trader for 9 years, the most valuable skill I acquired is executing trades based on facts (the market structure of the chart, flows, where we are in the cycle, etc). It’s common for people to close trades based on emotions instead, e.g. “I’m up/down too much, time to derisk”. Holding the HYPE airdrop is a great example as a case study.
Holding HYPE from $2 to $35 was easy because it was clearly undervalued. Then holding during the bear market had good R/R given the DAT and ETF flows felt underpriced to the point holding something else didn’t feel worthwhile. This ended up being proven true as HYPE was the only coin making new ATHs during the bear market.
You can make the argument that HYPE is no longer undervalued in its present form but continuing to hold now can be warranted given that:
i) There is a tangible long term vision coming together that you can bet on.
ii) We are at the beginning of a bull market and if you have been around the block you’d know that in a bull market tokens don’t trade to what are perceived as rational valuations but rather based on attention and whether the core holders are cultists. And there’s no better signal for long term attention than Trump saying Hyperliquid during a presser.
iii) A coin that is strong in a bear is only going to continue to be strong when the broader market is rallying. This has been proven true thus far with HYPE/BTC trading 1% below it’s ATH.
I am a proponent of taking some chips off the table if you’re happy with the profits but it’s important to keep in mind that this is an action for your own peace of mind, not because the trade is over and there is no more upside to capture.
Those of you who have held most of your liquid net worth in a single asset for an extended period of time:
How were you able to do it?
- Total disregard for risk management?
- Extreme, unwavering conviction?
- A deliberate moonshot without much to lose?
- No one dependent on you irl?
- Simply executing on a long term belief and accepting near term opportunity cost?