Short Notes On: General Political Rhetoric on AI
1. As I predicted the other day, Labour MP Darren Jones (former chief sec to PM Starmer) has decided now is a good time to speak more publicly about his views on AI.
2. Iāll unpack those in a second, but first letās pre-empt some of the criticism that will emerge. First, Jones has been talking about this for some time. His work as Chair of the Business and Trade Committee (prev BEIS Cttee, RIP) saw him examine many businesses and their AI workings. Second, he has also been calling for Labour to make AI a central part of their offering to the British people for a few years (Guardian screenshot below), which is more than most of the chump takes that have emerged on here from his fellow Parliamentarians in the last month. I donāt agree with everything he says, but at least he has spent time thinking about articulating his ideas before writing/tweeting them.
3. So what is he pushing for? TL;DR, Jones is concerned about labour market impacts from AI. He talks of loss of jobs, loss of tax, welfare and so on. He notes the companies themselves are talking about this, but UK Govt isnāt/doesnāt look likely to at level necessary. This piece arrives as Labour Conference gets moving, and so is meant to āfocus the mindā in No10/11 on this. It is also a thinly veiled dig on PM Andy Burnhamās overall āMr Nice Guyā approach because Jones is implying (correctly) that not doing anything, trying to please everyone, will have immense costs, and that Burnham will need to make some trade off.
4. Overall, I think the pieceās central argument (not the Burnham slight) is actually a slightly dated and confused view, and Iām again concerned by the delta between takes that are discussed at length on here by actual experts (economists in and outside of frontier companies are often tweeting about this stuff for free! - and whatās ending up in British papers/political chat.)
5. Just in terms of actual concrete things, the UK Government has set up an AI Economics Institute (first Govt in the world to do this) modelled off our booming AISI. I expect to see some stuff coming out of it soon, and hopefully this lights a fire under some SW1 bums.
6. I agree, and have written about, the vacuum created for populist takes if you donāt have an assertive government actioning and communicating actual positive AI achievements. āWe are using AI to reduce paperworkā no one cares! Means nothing.
7. The Government - and other leaders too - need to understand that this technology is being pitched on a level of almost going to the moon in terms of what it can achieve and do - āitās going to cure all disease/transform our society!ā- and THAT is what justifies some of the perceived risks. However, too often Western policymakers lack logos and critically thymos in their strategies around this. So we get bad press releases and poorly articulated concrete examples of how this technology is working/why it hasnāt quite worked yet (Apollo programme took a decade!)
8. Overall, Jones doesnāt quite articulate this correctly, but what he and other Westminster folk are struggling to say is that no Prime Minister has yet stated, in clear but comprehensive terms, what exact vision of Britain they have where AI helps it be achieved. If the whole pitch is just stuff like āAI helps us make the shit parts of Britain - long NHS queues, office admin, planning etc - marginally less shit, but by the way it also involves trade offs such as personal data being sold/huge amounts of money flowing around/potential risks to achieve this marginal gainā, thatās not really v inspiring. You are teeing yourself up for valid criticism AND invalid demagoguery.
Exclusive:
Artificial intelligence could lead to ācracks in the very foundationsā of Britainās economy by costing jobs and overwhelming the welfare system, a former minister has warned
Darren Jones, who served as chief secretary to Sir Keir Starmer, said that there may not be āenough jobs to go roundā if the government failed to āget ahead of the curveā on AI
He argued that while AI could improve productivity and result in higher wages or a four-day week, it could also drive unemployment by replacing jobs
Writing in The Times, he said that this could ultimately lead to fewer people in work, a bigger welfare state and lower tax revenues to fund public spending
Jones argued that the government must ask the ābigger questionsā, saying: āIf the pace of AI development is maintained, and businesses integrate it effectively, we could see cracks in the very foundations of the UK economy.
āIf, for example, there is a significant drop in demand for human workers and we have fewer people in work paying tax, how will we respond? The welfare system will not be able to support middle-class workers with good salaries and expensive mortgages if they find themselves out of work. So, what is the answer? What is our offer to young people if there simply are not enough jobs to go round?
'This potential drop in the tax take, and potential increase in economic inactivity and the welfare budget, would clearly be a disaster given the fiscal tightrope the government is having to walk. So, is the social contract fit for the future? If not, what should it look like? What should the Office for Budget Responsibility say about this in its ten-year economic forecast?'
thetimes.com/uk/politics/artā¦