I built statistical modeling into my Google Ads reporting because the normal dashboard was too good at sounding certain.
A daily row has all the official looking parts. Clicks, conversions, cost, value, conversion rate. If any of them move, the dashboard presents the movement like a fact. Recent data may still be settling, weekend samples can be thin, and the auction underneath the account can change while I am staring at yesterday's number.
The math was the easy part. The annoying part was making the report admit when the evidence was weak. CPC, conversion rate, and average conversion value each get compared against a baseline as distributions. The report can call a driver STABLE, ELEVATED, DEPRESSED, or UNCERTAIN, and UNCERTAIN is a real output rather than a blank spot.
That changed my morning read in a useful way. I still see movement, but the report makes me ask whether the movement earned a reaction. Sometimes a driver moves far enough, with enough evidence, that it deserves attention. More often, the current sample is thin, attribution is still settling, or the driver moved inside a wide credible interval.
That answer is quieter than a red dashboard cell. It is also usually the answer I need. The tool has kept me from turning ordinary noise into account work more times than I can count.