This website is such a potent radicalization machine. My whole feed is incendiary images from France paired w proclamations that this is a civilizational disaster -- w/o any historical context at all. Just images & hysteria. I'd say we're doomed, but then I'd be playing along.

You’ve read the election think pieces...by the same people who have been spanked hard by every cycle since Trump upset over Hilary. You’ve refreshed the Polymarket dashboard….the same dashboard that had no predictive value in the Brazilian election. You’ve looked closely at the economic data….despite being well aware that the economy is increasingly K-shaped with wide divergences between regions and sectors. You know that Dems cluster in certain professions and have very different income vs asset characteristics vs independents and repubs but that seems to be overly nuanced for you so you just move on. You have loudly proclaimed Trump has no morals or values and yet are utterly confused by his actions that seem to be antithetical to winning elections which seems bizarre to you for someone who went through a series of harrying persecutions and raids which will surely reoccur if Dems are back in power. You just shrug and assure yourself you are smart enough and diligent enough to catch inconsistencies when you read the think pieces and therefore are utterly certain republicans have no shot at winning the house. Instead take five minutes and try to understand what real wage growth looks like for the median voter. The independent in swing states. What drives voter turnout historically and how animated the respective bases are. What the polling error was historically but more importantly what caused those errors to worsen and is that deterioration in methodology accelerating or decelerating. Spend two seconds clicking down to the individual house race level and looking at the top gamblers in each race. How large are the pools. How much are they betting. What is their track. What other races are they betting on. If you did this as I have you will see it’s the blind leading the blind. There is clearly a systematic spend dynamic happening where someone is just sprinkling bets across races based on polling at the individual race level without differentiated data or methodology. You think you can predict the future. And yet you barely understand the admin or Washington or what has motivated voters historically. When the republicans sweep I hope people use this as a learning opportunity and understand how utterly psyoped they are by the mid-IQ pundit class. These people should be sent to the gulag and re-trained as plumbers. They should not be pontificating in the FT or on CNN. 🫡

Bunch of spending in Jeff Van Drew’s south Jersey seat.

A glimpse at just how brutal the 15 Nevada rural counties are for Dems. So far today in in-person: D -- 274 D (14.7%) R -- 1,220 (65.2%) O -- 376 (20.1%) Every cycle these margins -- see below -- amuse me to no end. No wonder Harry Reid eventually refused to campaign there.

Remember all the stuff initially in the early voting season about how youth turnout was nonexistent? In Georgia, it was only 4% 18-29, for example. Well, now it's up to 10% and will climb further today and on election day. Also, wow are these non-2022 voters nonwhite.

What do you mean Democrats finished early voting in Maine less than 800 votes behind where they finished in 2024 when Kamala Harris got the most votes in the history of the state

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I warned that “gerrymandering didn’t work” would be one of the post-election takes if the GOP lost — but they are clearly going to win seats bc they gerrymandered. No gerrymander and Dems probably net House seats in Texas. Now, they could elect a Senator, get 50% of the statewide vote, take back the RGV… and on net lose one seat, giving Rs a 26-12 advantage in the delegation.

Why yes, the American left did in fact torpedo the campaign of the misguided but actively bettering himself stormtrooper in favor of getting unrepentant, flamboyantly corrupt bureaucratic Hitler another term in office, why do you ask?

WaPo/Schar poll | 10/22-10/26 LV US Senate Kansas 2026 🟦Adam Hamilton 52% 🟥Roger Marshall 43% (incumbent) 🟨David Graham 4% Link to poll: washingtonpost.com/tablet/20…

Some thoughts on our final poll, which has D+11 with likely voters. Under the hood, it doesn't look that blue. Party ID is D+4 with leaners, and R+1 without. Rs still hold advantages on crime/immigration. Dems winning by 11 *despite this* is the kicker. theargumentmag.com/p/how-rep…

Day 10: Turnout up across the board, as expected. Non-Hockley rurals still not overperforming (reluctantly handing it to Trump's rally). Today and the next two days should be younger and +Hispanic; if that's the case this remains a likely Talarico, tossup Hinajosa electorate.

You've seen some of it in the last 24 hours, you'll see more in the next couple of days: the remaining undecideds are moving. Elections don't end 48-46 (at least head-to-head ones don't) And in wave years, as Haley Barbour likes to say, good gets better and bad gets worse. Trump clearly knows it, too. He hates standing w losers and the spin about being able to do more w tele rallies gets him off the hook from another round of rallies with folks about to take Ls

Updated turnout graphs: Yesterday definitely ended up less white and more democratic than Tuesday, although these Week 2 shifts seem a bit more muted this year than in 2024.

The enormous surge of Hispanic/Latino voters all across the country is one of the more remarkable things I’ve seen in all my years in politics. I am sorry Dolores Huerta will not be here to see all this.

If Kansas Republican legislators had addressed our election concerns instead of ignoring the patriots who have been raising the alarm, we wouldn’t be in this position. The problem goes beyond Kansas. Republicans as a whole have failed to take meaningful action on election integrity, and now patriots are losing faith in the process and questioning whether their votes even matter. Republicans need to stop ignoring the people who put them in office and start taking action. Strongly worded letters aren’t enough. We need real solutions, accountability, and leaders who are willing to listen to the people they represent.