AI & Markets. Former investment banking & asset management | PhD

$ASTS We need an update from @AbelAvellan himself. I don’t want some X post from the corporate account. What is going on with your company Abel? Why are you so silent? We’ve waited long enough and have been left in the dark multiple times this year when production hit snags. You are the leader and you need to address your shareholders with an update. If that’s too much to ask you shouldn’t have become a public company. You also need a chief marketing officer or someone who can excite investors and/or help restore credibility because it’s gone and there’s now a mountain of capital betting against you via short interest. Hope we have some clarity soon. If we don’t have a shipment this weekend launch isn’t happening until November. If that’s the case we’re well behind the already lowered revised guidance from the August earnings call. That’s material. It would be best to provide an update yourself since nobody answers us when we reach out to your investor relations department. @AST_SpaceMobile @scottwisniews
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And before anyone tells me to sell, there’s a reason why activist investors exist. A company can have a great product, but poor execution or poor communication. There is a disconnect here one way or another and it needs to be fixed sooner rather than later. I believe in the product, but there are many questions surrounding corporate execution and/or communication. The good thing is these are potentially fixable problems.
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I'm with you
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I suspect that video wasn’t really meant for us, judging by the video title and that it wasn’t tweeted.
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Accidentally uploaded. Look at the title.
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$ASTS Agreed. All it takes is a short post on X. The company's silence is legendary.
$ASTS We need an update from @AbelAvellan himself. I don’t want some X post from the corporate account. What is going on with your company Abel? Why are you so silent? We’ve waited long enough and have been left in the dark multiple times this year when production hit snags. You are the leader and you need to address your shareholders with an update. If that’s too much to ask you shouldn’t have become a public company. You also need a chief marketing officer or someone who can excite investors and/or help restore credibility because it’s gone and there’s now a mountain of capital betting against you via short interest. Hope we have some clarity soon. If we don’t have a shipment this weekend launch isn’t happening until November. If that’s the case we’re well behind the already lowered revised guidance from the August earnings call. That’s material. It would be best to provide an update yourself since nobody answers us when we reach out to your investor relations department. @AST_SpaceMobile @scottwisniews
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Straight up from the file.
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$ASTS Well, this is unexpected. Apparently @thekookreport has blocked me. I'm genuinely not sure why. I don't recall directly criticizing the account, and I'm a long-term $ASTS holder who posts my own thoughts, concerns and analysis, bullish or bearish depending on what I see. I did some searching and apparently Kook has recently said himself that he's been on a “blocking rampage to clear my mental space,” so perhaps I'm simply one of many. No hard feelings. I actually read and appreciate a lot of his ASTS DD. But I do think an investment community is healthier when long-term holders can disagree about execution, timelines or management without automatically being considered FUD. Same stock. Same long-term interest. Different opinions should be okay.
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It still is. Insults come fast and furious.
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I’m fine with it. Do your own thing the same way I do mine.

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Replying to @aituninglab
Same recycled material
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One way to sum it all up.
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$ASTS This is the kind of development I’ve been waiting to hear about. Important distinction: this is not a formal $META partnership announcement. But if Meta’s satellite team is already sitting down with AST and discussing WhatsApp over its network, that is meaningful validation of the use case. WhatsApp + ordinary smartphones + connectivity beyond terrestrial coverage is exactly the kind of application that makes D2D compelling. Now I want to see this move from workshop → testing → deployment. Give us the execution.
🚨 $ASTS x $META: META IS TALKING ABOUT WHATSAPP OVER AST SATELLITES. Good Morning everyone. Let's quickly go through this. Meta’s head of satellite partnerships said they hosted the $ASTS AST SpaceMobile team at Menlo Park for a workshop around bringing WhatsApp over AST satellites. Yes, Meta is watching D2D from the sidelines. They are also already sitting with AST and talking through an actual use case for one of the biggest messaging apps in the world. WhatsApp makes sense here. $ASTS doesn't need us to buy any new satellite phone or carry another device. The whole point is that your normal phone should work when the terrestrial network will disappear. So if $META wants WhatsApp to keep working in places where coverage is weak or nonexistent, AST is exactly the kind of network they would want to test with. Now add Meta pushing more 5G capable devices. I would not call this a formal Meta deal yet. We do not have that. But Meta’s own satellite team publicly saying they are working with AST on WhatsApp over satellite is why my ears have gone big now.
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This will happen in the near future.
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Replying to @aituninglab
Workshop—-testing—-development. See you in 5 years at this rate. $ASTS can’t even finish what they started.
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Not 5 years. 5 months tops.
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Replying to @aituninglab
Not sure why they’re gagged, must be something huge…but they seem to be saying…we have heard the complaints from shareholders, therefore, they are reaching out, saying what can legally be said…communicating that all is well and they are working hard to get us all connected
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Maybe. The uncertainty is still there.
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$ASTS This is the key point for me: let the FCC decide this on the engineering. T-Mobile is entitled to raise interference concerns, and AST should answer them with data. But an objection is not evidence that the SCS architecture has failed. If AST can demonstrate compliant beam shaping, power control and interference protection, the technical record should speak for itself. Competition is welcome. Now let the engineers and regulators do their work.
T-MOBILE FILES RESPONSE TO AST SPACEMOBILE SCS APPLICATION T-Mobile has filed a response to the SCS application and the point they make are spurious at best. Let's break them down 1 by 1 and show how poor they are.... 1) First, the “missing maps” narrative is misleading. AST has already provided extensive technical data, dozens of parameters, and multiple amended filings. This includes the newly released maps in the updated Annex B. What T-Mobile calls “essential” are scenarios AST is still actively optimizing with partners. 2) Coverage shaping for space-based cellular isn’t static like a terrestrial tower. Beam configurations are adaptive, software-defined, and dynamically altered in real time. Expecting final, fixed footprints this early is unrealistic and AST has been clear that its beams will be geo-confined and power-controlled to protect all licensees. 3) AST’s leasing partners (AT&T, Verizon, FirstNet) already know their own licensed footprints. AST aligning its beams to those areas is straightforward engineering, not a mystery. The idea that T-Mobile “can’t assess interference” without a specific map snapshot ignores the flexible, dynamic nature of SCS. 4) T-Mobile claims AST’s beams might “spill over” into other markets at low elevation angles. But this is exactly why AST’s system uses: • elongated beams only when necessary • adaptive power shaping • real-time null-forming • buffer zones • automated beam steering tied to licensed coordinates This isn’t new — AST has explained it repeatedly. 5) On the UE noise figure criticism: AST intentionally uses conservative assumptions. A 9.62 dB NF is not “worse engineering” it’s a safety margin. Over-estimating device noise means AST models worst-case interference, not best case. Ironically, T-Mobile is arguing against a more protective standard. 6) Flagship devices with 6 dB NF don’t weaken AST’s case, they actually make interference even less likely. This is because those devices hear satellite signals more clearly and require less received power. AST modelling conservatively protects all devices, not just the best ones. 7) T-Mobile also ignores the most important fact.... AST’s system only operates in partner-controlled licensed spectrum, under strict leases and FCC oversight. Non-partner carriers won’t see co-channel interference because AST isn’t transmitting in their bands. This is literally the core design of SCS. 🤦‍♂️ 8) The “FCC ignored our filings” line is a distraction. The Bureaus put the application out for comment because AST met the threshold for a complete filing and because space-to-mobile is now a national priority for coverage, rural connectivity, and emergency resilience. 9) It’s also worth noting that AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, Rakuten, Telefonica, Orange, MTN, and multiple global MNOs have all reviewed AST’s tech and chosen to partner, not oppose. The world’s biggest networks don’t sign on to something that can’t meet interference standards. 10 T-Mobile’s opposition is predictable 🤷‍♂️ SCS fills coverage gaps T-Mobile can’t reach with its current footprint. Opposing the filing is a competitive move, not a technical necessity. The FCC will evaluate based on engineering, not market positioning. 11) AST continues to refine beam targeting, interference protections, and coverage shaping. This is because that’s normal for a first-in-the-world space-based broadband system. The foundation is solid, partners are aligned, and the system is engineered to meet FCC constraints. Bottom line: T-Mobile’s filing doesn’t reveal a fatal flaw — it highlights that AST is building something new, dynamic, and far more sophisticated than terrestrial networks are used to. AST has already shown it’s committed to transparency, partnership, and interference protection throughout the SCS process. $ASTS $TMUS $VOD $T $VZ

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You don’t have to be bearish on AI to take Dr. Michael Burry seriously. AI may transform the world. But history says transformative technology can still attract too much capital, too fast. At 2.07%, net investment/GDP is already near dot-com-era extremes. I’m bullish on AI. I’m also listening to Burry. Read this.
New post, a long one. Deep forensic dive on $MSFT, $GOOG, $ORCL, $META, $AMZN with CU Universe stock rankings and the return of the fat pitches AICT Composite Value Map. michaeljburry.substack.com/p…
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Dr. Burry, I may not always be on the same side of the trade, but I always read your work. In a market increasingly driven by narrative and momentum, you force investors back to the filings, the balance sheet, and the capital cycle. That’s valuable. Respect from the other side of the trade.
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$RKLB working with $ASTS someday? Not today, and there is no announced deal. But here's a partnership I'd love to see in the future. Just my hope. Electron obviously can't carry a BlueBird. Neutron is a different story. Neutron is targeting ~13 tonnes to LEO, putting it in a payload class where carrying a next-gen BlueBird could at least become an interesting engineering discussion. AST wants launch-provider diversity. Rocket Lab wants Neutron to become a serious medium-lift alternative. Could a future BlueBird ever ride a Neutron? Nothing announced. Nothing confirmed. Just one space-sector combination I'd love to see someday. $ASTS $RKLB
Think Rocket Lab only operates in low Earth orbit? Think again. When a spacecraft orbits the Moon, touches down on the lunar surface, or charts a course across deep space to Mars, there's a strong chance Rocket Lab technology helped it get there and deliver mission success. Through our launch, spacecraft, solar power, separation systems, software, operations, and robotics solutions, we’re proud to support historic planetary exploration missions across the solar system. 🧵👇
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Dr. Burry’s capital-cycle argument deserves respect. AI capex may be reaching historically extreme levels, and depreciation/write-down risk is real. But I’m still betting on AI growth. The mistake would be assuming only one side can be right. AI can transform the world AND destroy capital along the way. $NVDA $GOOG $META $MSFT $AMZN
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$ASTS longs are a tough crowd. Management run a company where stock is up 25X in 2+yrs. instead of supporting and celebrating mgmt, they are restless and ridin' 'em $ASTS tale of long term happy patient investors and crowd looking for another spike, I'm waiting to see FCF
$ASTS Another day of silence. The company usually posts updates before or shortly after market open, but once again, nothing. We’re staring at the $50s again. At this point, you almost have to wonder: instead of rewarding long-term holders, is $ASTS teaching everyone to swing trade it? The volatility isn’t the real problem. We knew this was a high-beta growth stock. The problem is the information vacuum. When execution timelines matter this much, prolonged silence creates uncertainty the market will fill on its own. Long-term shareholders need something more than “execution in motion.” We need to see the execution.
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Wasn't meant for you specifically, I apologize. just happen to see your post/thread, it was convenient to requote. Sometimes anticipating good news with conviction, Mr Market might have surprise negative remarks to make. Then the stock would have to get $ASTS corrected accordingly
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No need to apologize at all. You made some good points. I still believe in $ASTS and the long-term thesis, but being patient is sometimes the hardest part of investing. Appreciate the discussion. Have a good one!
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