Aylo retweeted
βMost liquid allocators are meaningfully undersized to Ethena when considering the scale of the opportunityβ
ββ
The way to think about Ethena TAM/SAM is to imagine the total future market cap of stablecoins, what % of that market will seek yield, what % of those seeking yield want more than SOFR, and thatβs how you calculate the Ethena opportunity. I anticipate it will be in the hundreds of billions in the not so far out future.
There is no other team that has done better risk management, earned consistent yield above SOFR, has more distribution, and is better capitalized than Ethena.
There are very, very few projects in crypto with as much potential upside as Ethena.
$ENA is one of the primary beneficiaries of more trading activity leading to higher yields and in turn reflexive growth of USDE and now with this expansion their serviceable addressable market expanded massively. In my opinion most liquid allocators are meaningfully undersized Ethena when considering the scale of the opportunity. Just as a reminder there are only 4 stablecoins which have real scale, network effects, and distribution and USDE is one of them (and I think the top one outside of USDT and USDC)
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Little fumble of mine the other day (still make very basic errors from time to time).
I saw this as I still have Grass on notifications, and was like people are gonna long this because now they know the revenue is real (it was obvious it was real, but yeah).
I long, nothing happens for an hour. I say "no one cares", and I need to put the kids to bed, so I just take it off.
Pumps 23% that night, and now up like 40% since or something.
It took two hours from publishing the move to start.
Note to self, literally no one is paying attention still and you have more time than you think at this stage in the cycle.
muh efficient markets.
Grass is quite obviously mispriced, which is mostly a product of very bad comms (maybe they will fix this one day).
Grass DataCo Ltd., a wholly owned subsidiary of Grass Foundation, provides data infrastructure to leading AI labs training frontier models.
We're publishing an independent attestation of its revenue through Q2 2026, conducted by Regen Financial.
Full report: grass.io/resources/grass-attβ¦
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In the early stages of a crypto bull you are rewarded for top blasting.
You might be underwater for a small while, but getting positioned becomes more important if you have conviction that certain alts trade much higher in the coming 6-12 months.
You don't have to get cute with entries. Often getting too cute for "perfect" pullbacks, as you were accustomed to seeing in bear markets, sees you miss very large moves.
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The Ethena comeback will be studied.
Ethena is partnering with @Binance as our first venue for the extension of the basis trade into equity perpetuals, one of the most exciting updates to the USDe collateral backing since launch.
This expands the addressable market of underlying collateral from $2.5 trillion of crypto to $150 trillion+ of real-world assets.
As part of the partnership, bStocks will serve as tokenized spot collateral, hedged with Binance USDT-denominated equity perpetuals - the same delta-neutral structure Ethena has securely executed across crypto assets since inception.
Importantly, Binance provides lower ADL priority for eligible delta-neutral accounts including Ethena's, adding another layer of risk mitigation for USDe holders.
Binance equity basis has averaged ~11%+ annualized over the past 6 months, while open interest has grown on average ~30% per month in the last 3 month period.
We expect the market opportunity size for equity perpetuals to far exceed the $15b+ of crypto perpetuals captured by Ethena last cycle.
Allocations begin today.
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Backpack have built the right product for the right time.
That's not always the case, but I strongly believe tokenized stocks will be one of the dominant themes this cycle.
I remember the Backpack Exchange being announced at Breakpoint in 2023... it's just very impressive to see it all come together three years later.
@armaniferrante does not give up.
Worth spending five minutes to read the $BP thesis.
Backpack, the Engine for Internet Capital Markets and Tokenization.
frictionless.capital/articleβ¦
A thesis piece on how the United States is in the process of exporting its capital markets in the same way the dollar was tokenized with stablecoins and distributed over the Internet.
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Bigger picture thoughts:
If BTC is behaving more as a hard money SOV (not totally proven yet of course, but let's theorize) than a risk on asset then what does that mean for alts?
BTC started as an uncorrelated speculative asset. Institutions arrived in 2020 and it became a tech proxy, prone to big swings whenever risk assets dumped. Now it might finally be shifting towards hard money. The tech era wasn't really BTC's true identity. It was a phase driven by who the marginal buyer was.
There is an argument that we are setting up for the most sustainable alt coin cycle ever if BTC is not going to dump so hard with risk periodically, and has finally been accepted as a SOV by institutional money.
A calmer BTC that doesn't rug every time risk sells off would be a real tailwind for alts. Algos and bots will likely keep some correlation in place. But the more important point is that the best alts have already shown they don't need BTC's permission to go up.
You can see when we look at TOTAL2, TOTAL3 and OTHERS that alts have in fact led BTC in breaking bullish market structure. I can't help but feel this is the market tipping its hand.
We have never had a better crop of select tokens that have PMF, revenue, expanding TAMs, and great tokenomics, as buybacks have become the standard. Their TAM is TradFi not just crypto. No previous cycle had this.
These are real businesses where the protocols are capturing and passing on the value to token holders, unlike any cycle we have seen previously, where almost all tokens were entirely a game of speculation and narrative.
For the most part these businesses are moving from crypto to simply becoming the new fintech. For the first time, crypto protocols are competing for TradFi flow, and winning some of it.
When more crypto speculation does return, it's a bonus. Revenue and multiples expand together.
Agentic trading is a free call option on top. If it scales over the next two years, it could add meaningful volume, fees and transactions to the leading protocols as well.
The world is still very underweight good alt coins.
I think it is likely people sell far too early, and have not got a mental model beyond "alts are all vapour", which was a very protective framework in the past, but simply does not apply to our present s-tier alt coins. I strongly believe we have a list of investable tokens for the first time ever.
So, in summary, we have a more stable BTC, not rugging so much with risk, a likely supportive macro environment in 27-28 (financial repression to control bonds aka debasement, strong economy, hikes done etc.), supportive regulatory regime, and the first cycle with real earnings behind the best tokens.
I am very bullish and very redacted in equal measures.
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Bit of a follow up to this thought on why BTC may have bottomed early:
Explaining why BTC bottomed earlier than usual is of course a game of speculation, and of course no one will be able to prove definitively what the reason was.
But, one of the things that struck me about people that remained entirely sidelined is that there was simply a lack of belief in the asset, and what the the purpose of the asset is nowadays contrary to the past.
BTC for most of its life cycle has been a risk on asset that was primarily correlated with tech.
This was despite repeated narratives about digital gold, protection against debasement etc.
Whilst the properties of BTC made those above narratives true, the PA never really lined up with them despite some believers repeating them ad nauseam.
I believe that the majority of buyers in previous bear markets were mostly speculators that bought BTC for its fast money potential as a fast horse, as opposed to allocators buying it for its SOV properties. Most people didn't want to buy BTC as a hard money SOV in previous bears.
I think what is different about Bitcoin now is that over the course of the last few years due to the insutitionalization of the asset, and global investor education by Blackrock and co, it has shed its identity as a risk on/tech asset and largely embraced the SOV hard money debasement protection identity.
It has become palatable for institutional allocators and fund managers to recommend a core allocation of BTC in traditional portfolios. I have noticed this with institutional portfolio services that I follow myself.
In my humble opinion, when Bessent announced bond buybacks it acted as white swan catalyst for BTC to exit its bottom range as global investors recognised that Bitcoin was the asset to buy in that moment. It became correlated again with Gold, and did exactly what it should have done in that moment.
Now, you either believed in the asset at that moment and its SOV qualities and hard money identity, or you didn't, and you still held in your mind that it was a risk on asset despite that identity largely making little sense from first principles.
I think this is primarily why people sidelined themselves on Bitcoin (the old four year cycles are an extension of this), as there were expecting the world to give them a much bigger discount again as was historically tradition, and they would take the risk on an unloved risk on/tech asset, but this time was in fact different.
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Kind of funny how absolutely irrelevant this is now.
Binance lost all of its motion and influence because it fucked over its users time and time again, and still hasn't taken proper responsibility for 10/10.
On a long time horizon user and holder alignment is everything in crypto.
It doesnβt matter what head start you have, or how big you are.
Hyperliquid.
Binance will list @HyperliquidX (HYPE) with the Seed Tag applied.
More info β binance.com/en/support/annouβ¦
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First wealth effect of this cycle coming up.
32% going to traders is huge.
$100 per point looks very doable.
They've extended the points programme for longer so you have a small bit of time left to grind as hard as you can (don't be lazy):
omni.variational.io/?ref=OMNβ¦
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Oh you fell for the rival sponsored pond weed IQ level fud?
Back to back $1.5M revenue days.
Buybacks have now been increased to 75% of revenue.
StonkFun Revenue
(Sept 23rd)
Revenue: $1,487,685
Buybacks: $1,130,389
Burned: 3.67M solana:6GmAFSYs4gk3FDao5FzzySQpPZaWsa4rUJHacpMpUNgx
stonkfun.xyz/revenue
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Long end selling off again is not ideal.
Alongside Alts OI very elevated now (this is minus tradfi perps).
I think does warrant a bit of caution here short term. Chill with the leverage. We are due a rinsing.
Dips should be bought for the rest of the year.
Early cycle dips are some of the best you can buy.
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Two of my largest positions and I agree.
Max pain this cycle is the obvious protocols that make revenue continuing to go up the most, whilst people still to try to pvp on the latest cat coin because this cycle itβs paired with an equity
the vibe im getting is the main revenue meta coins are underowned because people are gambling on garbage instead lol
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Very bullish for $LIT
Insanely quick timeline from TGE to tradfi vehicles so that institutional capital can get access and invest.
This is going to be more common now for crypto assets that have real products with revenue and users.
High quality alt coin adoption by Tradfi is going to accelerate.
New era.
We're pleased to announce the launch of the Bitwise Lighter Staking ETP, the world's first exchange-traded product providing exposure to ethereum:0x232ce3bd40fcd6f80f3d55a522d03f25df784ee2.
Lighter: a decentralised perpetual futures exchange built on @ethereum. LIT is its governance and staking token.
Thankful to the @Lighter_xyz community, and grateful for the chance to provide mainstream access to LIT.
ππ©πͺπ΄ π±π°π΄π΅ πͺπ΄ πͺπ―π΅π¦π―π₯π¦π₯ π§π°π³ π³π¦π’π₯π¦π³π΄ π°πΆπ΅π΄πͺπ₯π¦ π΅π©π¦ ππ π’π―π₯ π΄π©π°πΆππ₯π―'π΅ π£π¦ π³π¦ππͺπ¦π₯ π°π― π°π³ π’π€π΅π¦π₯ πΆπ±π°π― π£πΊ π’π―πΊπ°π―π¦ πͺπ― π΅π©π¦ ππ.
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Explaining why BTC bottomed earlier than usual is of course a game of speculation, and of course no one will be able to prove definitively what the reason was.
But, one of the things that struck me about people that remained entirely sidelined is that there was simply a lack of belief in the asset, and what the the purpose of the asset is nowadays contrary to the past.
BTC for most of its life cycle has been a risk on asset that was primarily correlated with tech.
This was despite repeated narratives about digital gold, protection against debasement etc.
Whilst the properties of BTC made those above narratives true, the PA never really lined up with them despite some believers repeating them ad nauseam.
I believe that the majority of buyers in previous bear markets were mostly speculators that bought BTC for its fast money potential as a fast horse, as opposed to allocators buying it for its SOV properties. Most people didn't want to buy BTC as a hard money SOV in previous bears.
I think what is different about Bitcoin now is that over the course of the last few years due to the insutitionalization of the asset, and global investor education by Blackrock and co, it has shed its identity as a risk on/tech asset and largely embraced the SOV hard money debasement protection identity.
It has become palatable for institutional allocators and fund managers to recommend a core allocation of BTC in traditional portfolios. I have noticed this with institutional portfolio services that I follow myself.
In my humble opinion, when Bessent announced bond buybacks it acted as white swan catalyst for BTC to exit its bottom range as global investors recognised that Bitcoin was the asset to buy in that moment. It became correlated again with Gold, and did exactly what it should have done in that moment.
Now, you either believed in the asset at that moment and its SOV qualities and hard money identity, or you didn't, and you still held in your mind that it was a risk on asset despite that identity largely making little sense from first principles.
I think this is primarily why people sidelined themselves on Bitcoin (the old four year cycles are an extension of this), as there were expecting the world to give them a much bigger discount again as was historically tradition, and they would take the risk on an unloved risk on/tech asset, but this time was in fact different.
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I don't trade with diagonal trend lines, but thought I would support the bullish thing.
$800 per point to start with.
Hyperliquid.
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One of the things I have changed my mind on this cycle is that meme coin trading is a fad or short lived phenomena.
It's not.
I thought it was a solved game, but the variance due to internet culture seems to keep the game going, alongside the addictive nature of gambling.
I am actually not a fan of gambling, and have a close family member who suffers from this addiction, but I accept that millions of people want to/need to gamble for various reasons: entertainment, desire to elevate one's station, desperation, boredom etc.
The lottery has atrocious odds, but it is the gambling game that the majority of the world have played for almost the last 100 hundred years. If you add up the combined sum a regular person has lost in their life playing the lottery is significant. It is kind of like a tax on poor people.
The internet + blockchains have enabled digital slot machines/lottery games in the form of infinite token creation. The dopamine hits that come with this form of gambling are the strongest of any gambling game imo.
No matter how much you hate this it is simply not going away.
You now have many ways to invest in the underlying infrastructure related to this form of internet gambling. Last cycle the cleanest proxy was SOL.
This time around you have launchpads with differing mechanisms that allow the game to be played in different ways.
Some are more aligned with their holders than others, but all are seeing rising interest and adoption metrics.
Other opportunities remain in the private markets like FOMO, but they possibly may airdrop one day who knows.
The activity will ebb and flow with manic peaks and big lows as the the flows are carried by speculation seen in other areas of the market, becoming more liquid as wealth trickles into onchain gambling.
Again, hating on this is futile. You are better off ignoring it if it bothers you. Gambling is big business in the real world, and there are extremely profitable businesses in that sector.
Everyone loses on slot machines in Vegas, and yet the people keep coming back to play them with the hope of hitting it big one day.
There is a lot of total bullshit happening with KOLs, and bundling etc. I am not condoning that at all. And I steer away from that completely, and encourage you to do so as well.
Redacted people are going to do redacted things even though they actually know they are being robbed and scammed. You can't stop this.
You don't have to speculate on a single individual memecoin coin, and I actually don't think it is +EV to do so.
But it's clear there are going to be giant onchain internet gambling infra winners here, and you can capture that opportunity if you want to.
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Stonk had a $2M revenue day yesterday, made a new ATH and has now burned 17.33% of the supply.
Not sure I have ever seen a coin be more fudded, attacked or vamped with these kind of metrics.
Fundamentals + hate + wall of worry + more supply being burned whenever we have panic selling?
Inject into my veins.
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