andrew chen retweeted
An Earth economy is less than a trillionth the size of a K2 economy
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andrew chen retweeted
Jev is a textbook example of Clayton Christensen’s Innovator’s Dilemma playing out in AI. It is commoditizing the bottom of the ML market: classifiers, routers, scoring and context triage. For frontier LLM labs, these workloads are not even worth pursuing. Revenue per decision is tiny, margins are razor-thin, and their entire infrastructure is optimized around selling expensive reasoning and token generation. They cannot simply put a smaller LLM on fast inference chips like Cerebras and compete. Jev uses fundamentally different infrastructure, built to return typed probabilistic decisions so it’s a pure disruption
Jev is classic low-end disruption. You don't invent Jev is you are a GPU-rich hyperlab
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by now we’re used to: - frontier model launches - 6-12 months later, the chinese open weight models close the gap this week we’re seeing: - jev launches - a few days later, swarms of US AI developers ship their own open weight models :) tracking 2-3 early ones so far, but looks like some great open weight alternatives coming within the week I’m sure there will be some great chinese open weight alts for jev coming also
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curious if Jev-like models might accelerate us towards on-device AI native functionality on mobile devices strong LLMs are a long way from running on phones: - slow memory bandwidth - only highly quantized MoE models will fit - lots of issues with power/heat/etc Folks are building NPUs for the next gen of mobile but targeting pretty modestly sized LLMs There’s lots of mobile UX that would benefit from fast/cheap AI decision models - from notifications, typing/texting, to in-app experiences like inboxes/calendars/etc I always figured the other solution would be a model-on-a-chip that would encode an older-yet-useful model into the actual phone hardware itself, but maybe this will move faster?
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Jev is going to change the prosumer/consumer AI landscape by unlocking a specific thing: Ad-supported + free AI native apps this is going to usher in a generation of new AI-native marketplaces, social networks, photo apps, messaging, calendars, email, collab tools, and much more. Why? Previously, if you wanted to have an AI-native app with multiple/fast LLM calls on every screen, the math just didn’t work - inference costs just couldn’t be paid back from throwing a few video ads or affiliate links. So there were really just two solutions: 1) be a massive company and subsidize AI costs 2) charge a subscription fee to cover inference (or both) So what happens when you take a different approach that’s looks to be, initially, >400x cheaper than a more general LLM? I think it means that app developers are going to make their apps smarter and different in interesting ways. It won’t be as generically powerful as LLMs, but instead folks will create highly differentiated point solutions. You may not have a generically powerful virtual admin to schedule all your meetings, but you may have a free/ad-powered assistant that can comb through your inbox, filter for only important emails, figure out important dates, prioritize contacts, and do other interesting 80/20 work. Same for generically powerful virtual companions, or app builders, etc - it may be that we can hybridize the LLM and future Jev-like models that adds ā€œwowā€ features at 1/1000ths of the cost, to make the economics work. If folks hear of interesting new apps/interactions/etc built on Jev, I’d love to hear it!
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I prev wrote about the battle of inference cost vs ARPU here - it might end up sooner than expected!
for AI-native consumer apps to be truly ubiquitous we need: ARPU > Average Inference Cost Per User. How far away are we from that? Ideally AI native apps can hit APIs on every screen yet also pay for just by throwing some ads on it But I think we’re a while away: - unfort we’re probably >10x off right now. Monthly ARPU is $2-5? Token costs for an AI heavy app might be $20-50 of cost - much of consumer is global. Even if we hit the US/EU it’ll be a while before we can serve the broad base - more importantly every time AI improves, consumers demand more. No one wants to talk to a last gen AI character. If video gets good they’ll want videos everywhere - same issue for LLMs. We started with short replies back. Now we want agents who can do entire tasks for us - it might be we need major innovations in small models or new mobile hardware so that we have free local inference. But that will still not be as good as SOTA cloud LLMs obv, but might solve some use cases No wonder so many products focus on productivity, and on prosumers who can pay $100s or $1000s on work related tasks. This is where you can have huge ARPUs and benefit from being SOTA. And it seems as though there’s no limit for tokens… so why do the low end?
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andrew chen retweeted
I used AI to explain the AI pacing drama, with fruit.
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Sometimes it’s the small victories that make your day
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ok great now I have 3 messy inboxes I have to check: - stuff my agents have done on scheduled loop that I need to review - bookmarked slack messages off Google Docs and slides to review - my actual email inbox lol
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The most investigated man on earth isn’t afraid of Flock. Privacy matters. Abuse matters. And we can protect privacy, reduce abuse, and improve public safety with @flocksafety.
President Trump tells reporters on that he likes Flock cameras.
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andrew chen retweeted
Frequent video gamers performed on cognitive tests like non-gamers that were ~13.7 years younger
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current homelab setup for local AI experimentation: - hermes box hosted on a Framework Desktop Mainboard AI Max+ 395 - 5090 eGPU running Qwen 3.8 27B for fast tok/s LLM use - sometimes 150+ tok/s - 2x DGX Spark: running Deepseek v4 Flash 0731 - better but slower model - pi 5 for monitoring - Mac mini as a dev box - use Herdr and ohmypi/codex/claude depending on the use case - housed in a 10" DeskPi mini rack (mostly) Hermes is defaulted to local AI but with a homegrown routing plugin hitting a small low TTFT model (Arch-Router) to decide whether to go local or upgrade to cloud/frontier. Trying to get to 100% local over time, but right now probably more like 60-70% The Sparks are for batch processing background runs (all the cron jobs, longer dev builds, etc) do you need all of this? Absolutely not lol. I started with the mac mini and couldn't help myself but to add over time! Also I regret getting the eGPU so I wouldn't recommend that to anyone
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What Is To Be Done? I propose a simple plan: Big AI companies should be allowed to build AI as fast and aggressively as they can – but not allowed to achieve regulatory capture, not allowed to establish a government-protect cartel that is insulated from market competition due to incorrect claims of AI risk. This will maximize the technological and societal payoff from the amazing capabilities of these companies, which are jewels of modern capitalism. Startup AI companies should be allowed to build AI as fast and aggressively as they can. They should neither confront government-granted protection of big companies, nor should they receive government assistance. They should simply be allowed to compete. If and as startups don’t succeed, their presence in the market will also continuously motivate big companies to be their best – our economies and societies win either way. Open source AI should be allowed to freely proliferate and compete with both big AI companies and startups. There should be no regulatory barriers to open source whatsoever. Even when open source does not beat companies, its widespread availability is a boon to students all over the world who want to learn how to build and use AI to become part of the technological future, and will ensure that AI is available to everyone who can benefit from it no matter who they are or how much money they have. To offset the risk of bad people doing bad things with AI, governments working in partnership with the private sector should vigorously engage in each area of potential risk to use AI to maximize society’s defensive capabilities. This shouldn’t be limited to AI-enabled risks but also more general problems such as malnutrition, disease, and climate. AI can be an incredibly powerful tool for solving problems, and we should embrace it as such. To prevent the risk of China achieving global AI dominance, we should use the full power of our private sector, our scientific establishment, and our governments in concert to drive American and Western AI to absolute global dominance, including ultimately inside China itself. We win, they lose. And that is how we use AI to save the world. It’s time to build.
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andrew chen retweeted
SYNCERE POP-UP 342 W 14TH ST, NYC 11AM - 9PM
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hey all- for folks who are in town (SF) Oct 5-11, we're hosting a ton of events, including at our new offices in Jackson Square. details below. -- the SF/LA Tech Week calendar is LIVE 2,300+ events across the two weeks. more than a 50% increase from last year. some other cool stats: - 1,580 events in SF, 762 in LA - 14 tracks - fundraising, deep tech, AI agents, infra, devtools, hackathons, media, fintech and more - 883 events on fundraising & investing. more than all of LA Tech Week in 2024. - 80+ a16z and portcos hosting: deel, stripe, elevenlabs, pinecone, databricks, carta, fal, exa - spacex, erebor, anthropic, google, aws, ibm, fenwick, hsbc, fireworks, vercel, pwc, fin, adobe, atlassian, cloudflare, hyperagent all showing up congrats @roseajohnson @TracyMassaro_ @KatiaAmeri @filgran_ @johnsonjanellea and the whole Tech Week team for the awesome launch
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