I recently saw a lot of predictions for the FDVs of current tokenless perp DEXs, so I decided to estimate their FDVs based purely on available data.
💡 There are many different factors to consider.
Some protocols on the list are still at a very early stage, while others, such as OndoPerps and KatanaPerps, already have tokens but are currently running rewards and points campaign (I also included them for comparison only.)
📊 I estimated the implied FDVs of tokenless perp DEXs by comparing their open interest and trading volume with perps that already have tokens.
> Comparable median multiples
Based on HYPE, ASTER, LIGHTER, EDGEX, and GRVT:
- Median FDV / OI: 2.38x
- Median FDV / 7D volume: 0.248x
- Median FDV / 30D volume: 0.061x
The median is used instead of the average to reduce the impact of large outliers such as
$HYPE.
> Base FDV formula
Open interest receives the largest weight because it better reflects capital retained on the platform, while trading volume can be temporarily inflated by incentives or wash trading.
Base FDV = 0.60 × (OI × 2.38) + 0.20 × (7D volume × 0.248) + 0.20 × (30D volume × 0.061)
Weighting:
- 60% current OI
- 20% 7D volume
- 20% 30D volume
> Growth adjustment
Early stage perp DEXs should not be valued solely based on their current stats. Some are increasing their open interest and trading volume rapidly, meaning their current statistics may understate their near-term scale.
Growth Score = 0.60 × (30D OI growth) + 0.40 × (30D volume growth)
To avoid unrealistic valuations resulting from very small starting bases, the final adjustment is capped:
- Maximum growth premium: +50%
- Maximum contraction discount: −30%
Current stats: OI I 7D vol I 30D vol I growth
-
@variational_io $1.36B I $5.56B I $23.78B I flat
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@TxFlow_L1 $13.2M I $394M I $1.32B+40%
-
@perpltrade $14.9M I $446M I $1.27B I +77%
-
@risextrade $33.5M I $828M I $2.58B I +55%
-
@OndoPerps $71.3M I $1.52B I $4.63B I +61%
-
@katanaperps $1.24M I$179M I $474M I +100%
-
@N1Chain $1.30M I $18.1M I $156M I −58%
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@pacifica_fi $103.6M I $2.17BI $9.99B I−9%
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@tradehotstuff $3.69M I $20.2M I $161M I −53%
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@DecibelTrade $3.99M I $192M I$914M I −13%
⭐️ Estimated FDV ranking
1.Variational $2.4B–$2.8B
2. Pacifica $350M–$450M
3. OndoPerps $280M–$350M
4. RiseX $150M–$180M
5. Perpl $75M–$90M
6. TxFlow $70M–$82M
7. Decibel $23M–$29M
8. KatanaPerps $22M–$25M
9. HotStuff $6M–$7M
10.N1 $3M–$4M
💫
@get_truenorth is not included in the list because its data is not publicly available. It is also difficult to compare its metrics with perp DEXs, as it offers something fundamentally different.
The ranking is based purely on current on-chain stats. That said, I expect some projects to continue growing rapidly like TxFlow, while others may begin to slow down or may simply be too late to farm.
🎯I covered all the projects that I think are worth using and farming points in my article.
I'll leave some codes for my top five picks below for anyone who's interested.👇