AI, politics, and the future.
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The algorithm incentivizes high entropy views. It penalizes pundits with predictable, consistent views.
The algo is infecting society's sense making organs with ADHD.
Taylor Lorenz and Richard Hanania should get like a half medal for having the highest variance (in terms of overall goodness) takes
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For all the galaxy brain doomer arguing, the most persuasive doomer case is the non-doomers’ complete inability to argue their pov.
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In what fraction of Earth-like history runs does AGI emerge from relatively free democracies?
Also, in what fraction of history runs is the singularity as "challenging" as ours (debt cycle, internal + external cycle stress, personalities involved)?
AI might work and win the future forever. But the Western world didn't earn or deserve this miracle. It was at best grace of God bestowed on an undeserving sinner.
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giant team works super hard for months to launch a product with pmf and then the overpaid head uses it as an opportunity to launch his poasting career
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Just walking around the city today overhearing snippets of conversations and it’s shocking how much the AI xrisk discourse has penetrated popular discourse.
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Atlas Node retweeted
Is AI actually speeding up drug discovery?
According to new McKinsey research, there are early signs that it is: all of these candidates were AI-enabled, with discovery time cut by ~15-80%.
(Incredibly bullish)
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Scarcity mindset: scared to regulate AI because it would risk what meager growth we have
Abundance mindset: current models are already going to grow the economy enormously, so we can afford to slow down for safety and still have the fastest period of growth in human history.
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Ideas don't win by convincing podunk normies directly.
They win by convincing coastal elite media figures who transmit opinions to normies.
And to do that, they need to be socially acceptable for coastal elites to defend at dinner parties -- not polyamorous autistic gangbangs.
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AI Doomers should more often mention that even if we reach a worldwide agreement to dramatically slow the pace of AI research, they still expect a 90% GDP growth rate for years.
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Rationalists can't do social learning.
Most people don't think for themselves. They just copy what cool people around them say and tweak it slightly.
Rationalists try to derive everything from first principles.
As a result, they're early on new truths and late to old ones.
Again I'm not even judging I just want to understand this very strange overlap between EAs and polyamory/kink?
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The trend of schizophrenic anti-doomer takes is a symptom of social media echo chambers. Normally such tendencies would get weeded out by contact with normies, but online they get signal boosted and rewarded within their tribal bubble.
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Doomers often pretend ASI will be a magic genie with unbounded powers. You need to justify specifically what data they'll train on and what skills/knowledge they'll learn!
OTOH, when you do that exercise it does work out close to a genie with unbounded powers.
AI doomers who insist upon ignoring physics, math, and reason because "AI will just make magic happen" are profound retards.
It is absurd that this even needs to be said.
It is simply "I have no argument, I reject the very rules of argument, but I win anyway, do what I say."
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Notice how Trump has saddled the GOP with the wrong side of an 80/20 issue. Republicans who want to win future elections, take note!
In the short term Trump gets to juice the economy.
In the medium term, he burdens the GOP with a pro-AI association. Diehards will buy the “hoax” but how will normies feel about nonstop news of job losses, extinction risks, and rogue AI hacks?
Aspiring GOP pols should consider…
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Ponder the guy who doesn't dispute the danger superintelligence poses, but holds freedom to perform computations as a terminal goal.
Sounds like a death cult to me.
I'll keep doing linear algebra in my house and you'll have to send men with guns into my house to stop me.
We aren't in a free country if they make math illegal.
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