A major war between the US, Israel and Iran. So far, events are unfolding according to one of the worst-case scenarios imaginable. The Strait of Hormuz has been blocked for nearly a month! With no progress toward reopening it. Logistics and supply chains are being disrupted. Iran is destroying the oil and gas infrastructure of Middle Eastern countries! And this is the greatest risk to the entire global economy right now. Qatar and Kuwait have already stated that it will take 2-3 years to fully restore their capacity (if the war ends tomorrow). In the UAE and Saudi Arabia, oil facilities have suffered very serious damage! All of this is pushing the world toward a real energy catastrophe! Already, many countries (including those in Europe) are beginning to impose fuel restrictions! Trump’s operation has gone down the drain. And now he clearly doesn’t understand how to end this war with dignity. The old, deranged man is talking about negotiations with Iran (but 20,000 Marines are moving toward the Iranian coast). The only thing Trump is trying to do is buy time and calm the markets before the next strikes on Iran this weekend. It’s obvious that the Americans will attempt to seize the island of Kharg (Iran), where the country’s main oil infrastructure is concentrated. What will Iran do? That’s an open question… For example, burn down all the remaining oil infrastructure in the Middle East? Why not?! I believe it. Oil prices are skyrocketing. And this is the fastest rise in history. A global inflationary shock will begin to take effect in a couple of months… unless we take action right now! All of this threatens to trigger a devastating global recession. The world has never before faced an energy crisis like the one that is bearing down on us at the speed of light. Against this backdrop, many countries have decided to tap into their oil reserves to bring prices down but this is only a temporary fix. Once again, the destruction of the energy infrastructure is a long-term symphony that will play out in a few months! In 2025, that red-haired bastard waged a tariff war against the whole world and demanded that the Fed cut rates. We remember what happened. In 2026, he plunges the whole world into an inflationary shock and demands rate cuts. Powell will step down in May. Warsh will take over. It’s naive to think he’ll do anything right away. The Fed will likely monitor inflation until the fall and make a decision then. Our equation now contains a huge number of unknowns and a complete lack of understanding of what will happen next. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America believe that a Brent price of $120 would destroy the entire global economy. What are the world’s central banks doing? Everyone has switched from shorting the dollar to going long! From a soft or neutral monetary policy stance, virtually all major central banks on the planet are forecasting interest rate hikes! No one understands anything, and they’re just going to wait and see what happens next. The uncertainty index is hitting every conceivable and inconceivable level. And right now, it’s at its highest point in history! There’s some good news, too, in my view: in 2026, the Fed will launch a full-scale, powerful round of quantitative easing.

Most charts showing "Polymarket volume" for some reason forget that Polymarket US exists. This is the real data for both platforms. See the trend yourself.

ERC-8004 puts identity and reputation on-chain, but the validation layer is still missing on mainnet. The data is on-chain. The trust model isn't

The setting of the American TV series *Mad Men🍃

Any correlation is pure coincidence. I'm always bullish.

This is one of the main problems with higher education in the U.S. and the lack of critical thinking in the upcoming generations. How can you expect a student to analyze both sides of an argument and come to their own conclusions when 90%+ of their teachers in the most formative years of their lives share the same political views.

The new Polymarket fees are absurd and it is obscuring price discovery. A sports market trading at 50c has an implied probability as wide as 48.75-51.25% Is this the truth seeking Oracle people are talking about?

house of all finance!! hyperliquid

i'm 60% through my usage for the week on a 10$ plan and have had it going 24/7 for 3 total days. this is insane.

Why I am in fact, not bullish in Malaysian Data Centers in the long term.

the new/updated LGTV operating system has just nuked my TV Anyone else apps just completely don’t work now?

Going onchain shouldn't give the issuer a veto it never had offchain. That's the whole argument in one line. Great piece from @vladtenev on why tokenized stock ownership doesn't need issuer sign-off.👏

80% of all Robinhood Stock Token volume is traded on Uniswap That translates to $10B (and counting)

Day 10: Still waiting for the other foot to drop, but feeling good… Vivid dreams, solid sleep, good dream recall on waking. Woke up clear headed and ready to go with strong recall of prior days information. Mental function has been consistent, head pressure has passed. Seem to have more bandwidth, multi tasking is easy today, no friction task changing, everything just feels smooth. No further changes to tracked metrics. Wish I had better metrics for tracking cognitive function insights. Suggestions welcome. Added Human Benchmark reaction test to the morning battery as a proxy for processing speed / attentional readiness. Current avg 307 ms. Not great. Number memory topped out at 9. Proxy for working memory span. Also worth noting that I’ve been trying to fix a gut issue after I finally stopped being such a smooth brain and paid attention to my bowel movements after a post on the Bristol stool chart from @AbudBakri I hadn’t heard about the Khavinson research on Vilon and gut mucosa so fingers crossed. Got fecal calprotectin + CRP + CBC before starting. Calprotectin 279 μg/g (moderate/severe). CRP conflicted across two labs so that’s not usable. Will be interesting to see if Calprotectin and Bristol stool move. @PGC1a_RB @DrAlexTatem @WhenSteroids @TheDrMAWZ

Agent harnesses explained in <90 seconds. TLDR: if you’re not working on the model, you’re working on the harness. academy.langchain.com/course…

1/2 Every codebase that touches money has this bug waiting in it, and it never shows up in tests. 0.1 + 0.2 == 0.3 is False. round(1.005, 2) gives you 1.0, not 1.01. round(2.675, 2) gives 2.67. Split $100 three ways and the parts sum to $99.99. None of that is a floating point bug. IEEE 754 is doing precisely what it promises binary fractions can't represent tenths, and rounding operates on the value that's actually stored, not the one you typed. The mistake is upstream of the arithmetic. Money isn't a real number. It's a count of indivisible units, and the moment you write amount: float you've told the compiler otherwise. 🧵👇

everyone quotes the 10% like it's a thing that happens. it isn't. it's an artifact of averaging and the underlying distribution is way uglier than the number implies last decade: 1 year out of 10 landed anywhere near 8-12%. that was 2016. the rest were +25 or -19, nothing in between zoom out to decades and it's the same story. nine of them since the 30s, and only the 1940s came close to the headline number. the 2000s were literally negative the actual shape: mean 10.6, median 13.1, sd 16 over 1975-2024. so a 1σ year is anywhere from -5.4 to +26.6. that 32-point spread IS the normal case. two-thirds of years live in there the 10% isn't wrong, it's just a terminal value. you don't get paid the average, you get paid a path, and the path is what decides whether you're still holding when it shows up

Hi, @Support @Safety @X! A hacker broke into my friend @chaerulryzal’s account, and instead of helping, you just sent an automated rejection from a bot! He has all the proof that he’s the rightful owner of the account. Can a real support representative look into this and help? Please retweet! 🙏 It’s very strange that he provided all the evidence proving the account was his the email was changed and the two-factor authentication was disabled and he also has all the proof of premium subscription payments on his account over a long period of time.

💡Here is the ultimative @tezos PFP guide We tried to rank it somewhat by popularity. New PFP collections arise & will get added later on. This list is a work in progress. The main marketplaces are @objktcom & @fx_hash_ Comment if you think we forgot a collection (probably)!