Long (but necessary) post on the Ceuta invasion.
I’ve seen some pretty crazy takes on the biggest news story of the last 48 hours, from the Moroccans taking instructions from Israel (the stuff of Clown World) to it being instigated from the Oval Office, to distract from Trump’s embarrassing failures in the Iran war, but that reeks of TDS to me.
So my thoughts on this; I believe that it stems from a visit earlier this week by Spanish PM Sanchez to Algiers. To those unfamiliar with the politics of the region, Morocco and Algeria are long-standing enemies which occasionally threatens to erupt into full-scale war.
Morocco has spent several years trying hard to improve relations with Spain. The successful joint World Cup bid (with Portugal) is one manifestation of this, but there is also momentum for a tunnel under the Straits of Gibraltar connecting both countries. There is even talk of Spain recognising Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara (the former Spanish colony). Spain has been slowly moving to Morocco’s side on this issue in recent years.
Therefore Sanchez’s visit to Algeria earlier this week and the rumoured improvements in Spanish-Algerian relations was perceived as a slap in the face to Morocco and the visit received widespread and hostile coverage there. Morocco therefore decided to fire a shot across the Spanish bows.
The Spanish exclaves (and associated uninhabited islands) on the Southern Mediterranean have always been a bone of contention to Morocco. The Moroccans want this territory, as it effectively gives them equal control with the Spanish over traffic entering and leaving the Mediterranean. This would give them a similar position to Iran in the Straits of Hormuz.
There’s no question for me, but that Morocco (up to its highest level) orchestrated the invasion of Ceuta, in order to embarrass Sanchez and Spain and there’s no doubt that they have done that. The invasion has demonstrated how little solidarity Spain enjoys within the EU, with 22 countries signing up to a public rebuke in the last 24 hours and EU Commission head Von der Leyen also putting the boot in.
Why does Spain enjoy such little support? There are a few reasons. Spain has long been one of Europe’s soft underbellies on illegal migration to Europe. Hundreds of thousands have come across from Africa to the Spanish mainland and the Canary Islands and the Spanish government has done a very poor job on repatriation. Things have become so bad that a few months ago Prime Minister Sanchez announced an amnesty for what he thought was half a million illegal migrants. It turned out that the final number was just short of a million. This sent shockwaves of horror through the rest of Europe, where the danger from uncontrolled migration is now one of the biggest political issues.
With anti-migration parties making gains from Portugal to Sweden and with French elections coming within the next year, what Sanchez did was to light the flames under the European political establishment. Spain (or at least Sanchez) now has very few friends within the EU.
To compound the problem, Spain has been hugely underspending on defence, failing to reach its NATO commitments for years and that under-spend was manifested in Ceuta in the last 48 hours. This reluctance to meet its defence commitments has also riled up Trump and further isolated the Spanish.
With Morocco’s mission of embarrassing Sanchez achieved, there is no need for the invasion to be maintained. Doing so would only risk more heavy-handed tactics from Madrid and the possible intervention of NATO.
Sanchez has been given a bloody nose, shown to be almost friendless and with a corruption scandal adding to his woes, he is becoming an increasingly pathetic figure, living on borrowed time.