bud
@bds38
Charleston, SC
Joined September 2010
39 Photos and videos
Pinned Tweet
bud
@bds38
Sep 29
$FICO around $758 after hours. Nearly another 10% gone after the close. With VantageScore gaining ground in mortgages, I get why investors are questioning FICO’s pricing power. Down 60%+ gets my attention. But I’d want to rethink the earnings assumptions before calling it cheap
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Still bullish on $SPY and $QQQ. I don’t need to catch every green candle. Happy to wait for a pullback instead of buying just because I’m tired of watching.
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$RTX and $MSGS each show nine straight sessions of options flow classified as net bullish in this snapshot. The contrast is interesting: RTX’s price has softened while MSGS has held up better. Does the stock price start confirming that persistent flow?
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How much of their holdings did they sell, and were the trades scheduled in advance? The dollar amounts get attention, but those details would tell me a lot more about conviction.
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How much of their holdings did they sell, and were the trades scheduled in advance? The dollar amounts get attention, but those details would tell me a lot more about conviction.
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Bad consumer sentiment has often preceded good stock returns. This JPMorgan chart shows an average 24.1% S&P 500 gain in the year after selected sentiment troughs. The catch: a trough is easy to identify afterward. Low sentiment alone doesn’t tell us we’ve reached one.
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Would you take $AVGO from 2.8% to 5% in this portfolio? With $AMD already at 16.3% and $ASML at 7.7%, that would put those three chip names near 29% combined. The sizing question is as much about total semiconductor exposure as conviction in Broadcom.
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Wow. Nvidia, $NVDA, is up more than 20% in a year. It is now worth roughly $5.6 trillion, the largest company on earth. If you invested $1 in $NVDA 5 years ago, it would now be worth about $11. Morgan Stanley named it its top semiconductor pick.
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March 16, 2020. Almost nowhere to hide on this market map. It’s easy to look back and say “buy the dip.” Living through a screen like this is different. A plan made before the panic is a lot easier to follow than one improvised in the middle of it.
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$FICO had a sharp move on this chart: from around $600 to a $675.87 high, then consolidating near $670. The breakout above $630 stands out. After a run like that, the interesting part is whether the next pullback builds a higher low.
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$SUPV weekly is back near the long-term moving average highlighted on this chart. Previous dips into this area led to rebounds. This time, price is slipping below it again. A weekly reclaim would make the setup more interesting; the old bounces alone aren’t enough.
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A strong autumn rebound in Arctic sea ice would be worth noting. It wouldn’t erase the long-term decline. “Highest for this date” and “recovering over decades” are different claims. Same rule as a market chart: the timeframe matters.
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Brent back above $102 in this snapshot after a wild week. One detail worth keeping in mind: Thursday’s big gap reflects the front-month switch from November to December. The rebound that followed is price action. The rollover gap needs a different explanation.
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20% of stocks in the S&P 500 above their 50-day MA, which is where things bottomed in late March.
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Smart Money strikes again $SPCX 🚀
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Some serious moves on this screen. $MXL +13.5%, $AAOI +6.5%, $NBIS +5.7%, and $FCX +5.2% in this snapshot. The next session should be telling. Tight consolidation after a big move would be more encouraging than giving it all back.
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bud retweeted
chad.
@chad_ventures
Oct 2
$SPY still holding the horizontal level of that ascending triangle it broke out of in August
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Foreign nationals accounted for 79.6% of July’s net increase in Spain’s registered unemployment. That’s a monthly change, not their share of all unemployed people. Also, “foreign-born” and “foreign national” are different groups. The comparison needs more care.
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Brutal chart for $APP. Every rebound shown here has eventually given way to another leg lower. A huge drop can make a stock worth researching. It doesn’t make the old price a fair-value target. The business has to justify the next dollar you put in.
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🚨 Nearly 1 in 5 shares of $TLT’s public float are sold short. Short interest in the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF reached 107.78 MILLION shares. That’s 19.2% of its public float.
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30-year mortgage rates are back at 7.28%. On a $400K loan, that’s roughly $2,737 a month versus $1,612 at the 2021 low of 2.65%. Principal and interest only. Same loan, about $1,125 more every month. Easy to see why owners with low rates are reluctant to move.
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