Building Prediction Markets

Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Meet Rizzo's, a Chicago sports bar that lives and dies by Cubs home games. When the Cubs play at Wrigley, Rizzo's is packed and pulls in tens of thousands of dollars a night. When the Cubs don't play at home, the bar takes a hit. Playoff season makes that swing even bigger, so Rizzo's hedged it on Kalshi. We made a market for them: How many playoff games will the Cubs host this season? Rizzo's position: NO on 2+ home games. If the Cubs host 2+ games, Rizzo's has extra playoff nights and makes thousands in added revenue. If the Cubs host fewer, Rizzo's misses out on that playoff revenue, but their Kalshi position pays out to cover it. Either way, Rizzo's is covered.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
OMG @Kalshi I LOVE YOU!! MY SOON TO BE WIFE WILL GET TO EXPERIENCE HER FIRST LIONS GAME ON THE 50 YARD LINE!! LETS GOOO! THANK YOU KALSHI!!
Hey @Lions, I get married on Saturday, if I bring some wedding cake would you let me and my soon to be wife inside Ford Field on Sunday so she can experience her first ever Lions game? #OnePride
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Benjamin Netanyahu has a 27% chance to be the Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The next era of prediction markets: • AI Agents to monitor event contracts and take actions. • Live probability data as a signal to trade any other asset class. • Market-moving events directly on stock pages.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
BREAKING: President Trump says gas prices will be "coming down" Our traders forecast a drop back to $3.70 this year
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
BREAKING: 69% chance Fed "hikes" interest rates next month — an all-time high.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Good to see that sports is not included in this. For those concerned about the impact on young men, this clarification about the filing should allay those fears.
We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories. We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption so far. Capital efficiency has been the biggest bottleneck for institutions, and margin is the single most requested feature. Fully collateralizing long-dated contracts ties up substantial capital for months or years, making participation impractical for many institutions. It is very difficult for a large institutional market to develop without margin. Margin addresses that problem by reducing capital requirements, subject to strict risk standards. Some important characteristics of our proposal: • Margin applies only to a narrow set of categories, excluding sports and culture. • It is geared toward institutions and subject to strict eligibility requirements. • The risk methodology is modeled on approaches used by established clearinghouses and tested over decades. It incorporates conservative safeguards around volatility, liquidity, concentration, and event risks, as well as measures to limit sharp increases in margin requirements during market stress. The goal is a better trading experience for users. Greater capital efficiency enables more institutional participation, bringing deeper liquidity and better pricing. That makes our markets more attractive to more traders, whose participation further strengthens liquidity and improves the experience for everyone.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
We just submitted a regulatory filing to introduce margin on a subset of long-dated prediction markets. This will not apply to sports, culture, and a few other categories. We are very excited to be taking what we believe is our most important step toward institutional adoption so far. Capital efficiency has been the biggest bottleneck for institutions, and margin is the single most requested feature. Fully collateralizing long-dated contracts ties up substantial capital for months or years, making participation impractical for many institutions. It is very difficult for a large institutional market to develop without margin. Margin addresses that problem by reducing capital requirements, subject to strict risk standards. Some important characteristics of our proposal: • Margin applies only to a narrow set of categories, excluding sports and culture. • It is geared toward institutions and subject to strict eligibility requirements. • The risk methodology is modeled on approaches used by established clearinghouses and tested over decades. It incorporates conservative safeguards around volatility, liquidity, concentration, and event risks, as well as measures to limit sharp increases in margin requirements during market stress. The goal is a better trading experience for users. Greater capital efficiency enables more institutional participation, bringing deeper liquidity and better pricing. That makes our markets more attractive to more traders, whose participation further strengthens liquidity and improves the experience for everyone.
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1/4 Jargony, but this is typical market maker stuff on structured markets. Market maker is incentivized to maintain quotes at a spread so that the book isn't empty and have to absorb certain depth requirements. They'll put up size, that sometimes gets eaten and sometimes doesn't, and balance out losses against the trade. That's not a wash trade.
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts. i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal. this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here: news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-…
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Replying to @beniduboss
hey beni, just to be clear this is incorrect. we have never offered negative maker fees with zero taker fees. We have a program on file to offer negative maker fees and an equal positive taker fee, but it was never activated and would require Exchange Notice as written in the filing, which we’ve never done
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
JUST IN: Kalshi seeks approval for a prediction-market margin model designed for institutional trading. The proposed framework would bring the capital efficiency institutions are accustomed to, helping market makers deepen liquidity. It sets conservative margin requirements above regulatory minimums and excludes sports, culture, and mentions markets. This is a first for prediction markets.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
i thought more about it. beni, sorry for being a dick. i shouldn't have attacked you personally. it was cocky and unnecessary, and i should have stuck to the facts. i do want to clarify one thing: our incentives pay for liquidity, not wash trading. the claim that we’re incentivizing wash trading is incorrect, but i should have explained why instead of making it personal. this has made clear we need to do a better job explaining how our incentives work and the safeguards we have in place. we’ve laid out the full context here: news.kalshi.com/p/the-facts-…
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Big W on the road. Defense looks great, Flores has them dialed! Offense made plays when needed to, gotta keep it rolling!
Updated playoff odds of teams on the 1 PM slate, via Kalshi: 77% — Ravens 75% — Bengals 69% — Eagles 57% — Vikings 56% — Texans 54% — Patriots 46% — Bears 44% — Bucs 44% — Saints 39% — Steelers 36% — Packers 34% — Panthers 26% — Jets 10% — Titans 9% — Browns 7% — Falcons
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Dak has a great chance of winning MVP - if the Cowboys can win at least 12 games and the division. I still have my doubts. Watch Gridiron live tomorrow 12:30 ET piped.video/live/_U-gXRIU73I…
Biggest MVP Risers of Week 2, via Kalshi: +13% — Josh Allen +9% — Brock Purdy +4% — Tyler Shough +2% — Dak Prescott +2% — Joe Burrow +1% — Jalen Hurts
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Hey Beni, Seems like a bunch of wires got crossed here so I just wanted to set the record straight. Your original claim was that Kalshi’s crypto prediction market volume was fake. The chart from Artemis shows prediction market volume share, not perps. We don’t do rebates for crypto prediction markets. Also, the way that contracts <> notional $ is calculated is universal amongst prediction markets and same with poly so it’s apple-to-apples. Separately on perps you claimed that “Here SCM means market makers that are selected by Kalshi lmfao”. This isn’t true. Anyone can become a Self-Clearing Member of a CFTC regulated exchange as long as they meet the regulatory requirements. “Fair access” is a reg requirement for us. All exchanges run rebate and incentive programs to help provide better liquidity on the exchange for traders. CME does it. So does Hyperliquid and Binance (in fact they run NEGATIVE market maker rebates). I’m the first to admit that it’s early days for perps for us given we're building a new product in untrodden territory (US perps). But the core difference between Kalshi and offshore perp exchanges is that while other exchanges run deals in the dark, we need to file our incentive programs publicly and so what you see is truly what you get. hyperliquid.gitbook.io/hyper… binance.com/en/vip-portal/li…
This thread is 100% gonna blow up and I am gonna look like a salty c****again but @icobeast pissed me off so now it's gonna get ugly Kalshi fakes their crypto volume and I can prove it NOTHING pisses me off more than watching a company treat its own customers like complete fucking idiots Grab some popcorn cause I dissected every piece of evidence one by one until there’s basically no way for him to respond without making this look even worse Oh and FYI, I left every source at the end so y’all can check the receipts yourselves 😘 1/x
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First of hopefully many
Today, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first sovereign Tribal nation in the country to launch its own prediction market. Read the open letter below:
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Today, the Tunica-Biloxi Tribe of Louisiana became the first sovereign Tribal nation in the country to launch its own prediction market. Read the open letter below:
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
Heads up #BillsMafia We can’t christen the new Highmark Stadium without a few tailgate table breaks and it looks like @Kalshi is handing out free ones! Be good. Do good. God bless. Break some tables. And GO BILLS!
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
The first table at the new Bills stadium has officially been broken.
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Brandon Beckhardt retweeted
JUST IN: Yesterday was the second highest-volume day for @Kalshi in its history, +$3B traded in a single day
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