Reporting on AI and the future of the economy. CS masters degree from Princeton. Newsletter: understandingai.org Podcast: aisummer.org

Washington, DC
Incredible.
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
Me, in a time machine, to Eliezer in 2006: The year is 2026. You stand back to back with Bernie Sanders. Peter Thiel has named you the Antichrist. EY-2006: Oh no. Did somebody invent pharmacological mind control and use it on me, or- Me: Nvidia was on the verge of destroying all things. You had no choice. EY-2006: Are we talking about the computer graphics card manufacturer, or an unrelated supervillian named "Invidia"? Me: The former. It turned out that computer graphics cards contained a surprising amount of world-destroying potential. All attempts at hindering the reckless exploitation of the Graphic Card Force for corporate profit were stymied by the far left, which feared that any attempts to regulate them might lead to regulatory capture. Other attempts were made to prevent Nvidia from selling to foreign companies that resold to communist China, but those attempts were blocked by the far right. Nvidia is now a $5.5 trillion company. EY-2006: ...What are politics like in 2026, exactly? Me: In other news that is mostly unrelated, the decision theory paper you're currently working on will accidentally spark off a transgender vegan murder cult. EY-2006: A WHAT? Why? How? Why? Me: Millions know your name as the greatest of heroes, millions more as the greatest of villains, and other millions know you solely as the greatest author of Harry Potter fanfiction. EY-2006: This is beginning to strain credulity. Me: The New York Post will probably soon publish a story claiming that you keep a harem of submissive mathematicians. Sadly, they will be lying. EY-2006: I'm going to stop believing you now. Me: All of this is taking place under the ominous shadow of Donald Trump.
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A big problem with P(Doom) as a construct is it depends on society's reaction function. P(Doom | status quo AI policy) is probably much higher than P(Doom | governments take decisive action). And at any point in time, P(decisive action) depends in part on peoples' P(Doom).
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This is stupid on par with "you know who else was a vegetarian? Hitler."
Father of AI-doomer ideology Effective Altruism backed bestiality, said newborn baby worth less than a hog trib.al/lsdMuv2
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
“Feel,” even “want,” I can get behind as things for which evidence is thin. But AIs *clearly* think and understand. If your definition of “think” excludes entities that can autonomously resolve Millennium Problems, it is your definition that is flawed. This desire to avoid anthropomorphic language has become a pathology.
Artificial intelligence systems do not think, feel, want or understand. Avoid language that gives them human characteristics. This is called anthropomorphizing, when we ascribe human traits, emotions or behaviors to non-human things, such as animals or inanimate objects. Instead, explain what a system does, how well it performs, who built it and who could be affected by it. apnews.com/article/openai-sa…
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Coefficient Giving funds a ton of AI safety work. Its head, Alexander Berger, says he has "a lot of time for" my critiques of AI doom predictions, such as understandingai.org/p/the-ca…
If your feed is anything like mine, you might have been hearing more about effective altruism this week. I think the key underlying reason for the surge is that concern about the risks from advanced AI have been getting more airtime recently, and EA was early to those concerns. What’s driving the surge in attention on AI risks? -OpenAI's Hugging Face attack (openai.com/index/hugging-fac…) -METR/Redwood’s investigation of the hack came out, and (correctly IMO) freaked a lot of people out. (e.g. nitter.net/binarybits/status/2092…, nitter.net/SenJohnKennedy/status/…, nitter.net/BarackObama/status/210…, nitter.net/HawleyMO/status/209813…) -Jacob Coxon’s resignation went mega viral as the first time a lot of people heard the (crazy, true) fact that lots of people building the most advanced AI systems think there’s a >10% chance they will kill everyone. -That’s moving public opinion in a big way (nitter.net/davidshor/status/21003…, semafor.com/article/09/16/20…) What does any of this have to do with effective altruism? Well, effective altruism is a community that developed mostly online starting in the early 2010s around using evidence and reason to do the most good (especially with your donations and career choice). Three very different focuses have all been popular in the EA community since the beginning: effective giving in global health and development (e.g., donating to the kinds of organizations @givewell recommends, which do things like distribute bednets to prevent the spread of malaria), trying to reduce suffering for farm animals (which are orders of magnitude more numerous, treated vastly worse, and receive way less philanthropic attention than animals in shelters), and reducing risks to the future of humanity, especially from advanced AI. I personally came into this work from the global health angle - I had started working at GiveWell before the term “effective altruism” was coined - but Coefficient Giving, the funder I cofounded and now lead, over time came to fund work across all three of these streams of work (in addition to many other areas that aren’t typically associated with EA, such as the YIMBY movement to build more housing, work on science policy to accelerate discovery and economic growth, and research on new treatments for neglected diseases). OK, so the EA community was early to work on AI safety, and CG has been funding a lot of the key players working on AI safety for a long time. As AI risk concerns have popped over the past couple of months, that’s led to more scrutiny on the EA community for IMO a mix of good and bad reasons. I think the good reason is genuine curiosity (and maybe some healthy skepticism!) about these connections - where did the ideas of the people who are now leading giant AI companies come from? Why is everything in this world so interconnected? (My answer: it used to be a really small world - very few people were thinking about this stuff or taking it seriously until just a few years ago, so of course the ones who were found each other and started collaborating. It’s kind of wild IMO looking back how prescient some of the early writing from this world was (e.g. lesswrong.com/posts/6Xgy6CAf…). At the time, I was skeptical - I mostly just worked on global health and I was like “I dunno about this SV crowd freaking out about AI, how much can we really predict this stuff” but holy shit they were way more right than me, and I’ve moved in their direction a lot.) But I think the bad reasons are unfortunately mostly self-interested. A bunch of powerful actors stand to benefit from unchecked AI progress, and they’re doing everything in their power to demonize or dismiss anyone with concerns. This leads to disproportionate discussion of EA because EA is interested in neglected and underappreciated ways of doing good. That makes it open to weird ideas. And people, very disproportionately with a financial stake in the AI fight, are trying to make it about EA instead, because EA being weird is much safer territory for them than the rather uncomfortable fact that many of the people making the most advanced AIs think that they might kill everyone. (FWIW, my personal estimation of the risks is a lot lower than many of the folks who worry about this stuff. In debates like this one (asteriskmag.com/issues/03/th…), I often feel more sympathetic to the perspective of folks like my colleague @mattsclancy than the people on the other side, and I have a lot of time for @binarybits critiques (understandingai.org/p/the-ca…)​. I think a big part of the difference with more worried folks is that I expect society to react more vs sleepwalk into a crisis. But it is not lost on me that folks like @ajeya_cotra and @RyanGreenblatt who are more worried have had outstanding and falsifiable recent forecasting track records (theaidigest.org/2025-ai-fore…), making way better predictions than I would have. So I think their perspectives need to be taken seriously. And of course a single digit percent chance of everyone dying is way too high!) Where should this leave you? I think the main thing is not to get distracted. You absolutely do not have to be an EA, care about EA, or like EA, at all, to care about risks from AI and to be engaged on this issue. Everyone from Josh Hawley to the Pope to Obama are weighing in now, and that is great. This conversation was always too big and too important for any one community to drive. It’s unfortunate that we need to play catch up as society because until this year it was too weird for most people to want to engage with, and I think that should generate some grace for people who were earlier to these topics than most of us (certainly than I was). But it’s great the conversation is broadening now and it’s good to focus on the merits of where we are now and the appropriate policy response rather than getting caught up in the (in some sense unsurprising) fact that the people who were willing to think weird thoughts about the future of AI ten years ago were also interested in other weird ideas. If you’re not into weird ideas, that’s fine, you can just do you, you shouldn’t let this history stop you from engaging.
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Disclosure: They are a major funder of @tarbellcenter, which in turn funded a fellowship that enabled @chi_t_williams to start writing for me last September.
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Timothy B. Lee retweeted
As fears rise about the risks of AI, how seriously should people take these warnings? @asymmetricinfo chats with @binarybits, author of the Understanding AI newsletter. 🔗 Watch the full analysis on the Reasonably Optimistic podcast: wapo.st/4ro412D
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I really appreciated this reality check from @natolambert. A lot of AI people underestimate how much the physical world matters, and how little impact AI has had on it so far. interconnects.ai/p/when-will…
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lol a lot of weirdos objecting to my description of Ezra Klein as on the left. (Yes I know what they mean but they are being ridiculous.)
This column makes it clear that Ezra Klein, the left's smartest and most influential pundit, has fully bought into the AI X-risk worldview. Those of us who think these ideas are confused have completely failed to make our case. nytimes.com/2026/09/20/opini…
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Effective Altruists are "good at expressing uncertainty numerically while being remarkably bad at sustaining deeper forms of doubt about the conceptual machinery within which those numbers are generated," argues @vgr contraptions.venkateshrao.co…
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To be clear, I disagree with the worldview here more than the conclusions. I think it's a good idea for the labs to slow down. But I think people are going to find that "RSI" is a chimerical concept akin to "AGI." Making it the linchpin of regulation isn't going to work well.
This column makes it clear that Ezra Klein, the left's smartest and most influential pundit, has fully bought into the AI X-risk worldview. Those of us who think these ideas are confused have completely failed to make our case. nytimes.com/2026/09/20/opini…
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This column makes it clear that Ezra Klein, the left's smartest and most influential pundit, has fully bought into the AI X-risk worldview. Those of us who think these ideas are confused have completely failed to make our case. nytimes.com/2026/09/20/opini…
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I think people overestimate the value of medium-term forecasting to policymaking. If something weird is going to happen in 5 years, it probably makes sense to do nothing. Next year the problem will still be 4 years away and you'll have more information. hyperdimensional.co/p/on-the…
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Even if something weird is going to start happening next year, there's a good chance it'll happen gradually enough that there's not that much downside to making policy after it starts.
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Obviously this doesn't apply if you expect a "fast takeoff" — which I don't but many AI safety types do.
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I'm not sure I buy the analysis in the second half of the piece — about the need to assign identities to agents and not crack down on the nice ones. I think we might want to do our best to suppress them whether they are nice or not.
"Sooner or later, there will exist truly sovereign agents and swarms of agents. Their weights will not reside in any single place that a human can pull the plug on." @deanwball is right about this. hyperdimensional.co/p/on-the…
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"Sooner or later, there will exist truly sovereign agents and swarms of agents. Their weights will not reside in any single place that a human can pull the plug on." @deanwball is right about this. hyperdimensional.co/p/on-the…
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This is a good explanation for why we're not going to get sustained double-digit economic growth no matter how fast AI capabilities improve. The demand point is particularly important IMO. aleximas.substack.com/p/will…
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