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Why aren’t ships telling UKMTO they got hit⁉️
UKMTO SoH voluntary reporting SLOWER and LESS DIRECT
Direct from ship/CSO: 89% in April → 21% in September. IE Third-party now 79% (10% in Mar)
Time-late reports: 0% in May → 60% Aug / 53% Sep.
Why are ships/CSOs not reporting⁉️
March spike (25), then a rebuild from June (7) to September (19).
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US Treasury 5Y+ nominal auctions + buybacks:
Thu Oct 1: 🟢 10-20Y buyback (schedule had ≥$4B, recent long-end ops $6B)
Wed Oct 7: 🔴 10Y auction (~$39B)
Thu Oct 8: ⚠️🔴 30Y auction (~$22B) + 🟢 20-30Y buyback (≥$4B)
Thu Oct 15: 🟢 10-20Y buyback (≥$4B)
Wed Oct 21: 🔴 20Y auction (~$13B)
Thu Oct 22: 🔴 5Y TIPS auction (~$26B)
Tue Oct 27: ⚠️🔴 5Y auction (~$70B) + 🟢 20-30Y buyback (≥$4B)
Thu Oct 29: 🔴 7Y auction (~$44B)
Auctions: 1:00 p.m. ET
Buybacks: 1:40–2:00 p.m. ET
Prior list: x.com/biral_r/status/2092003…
US Treasury 10Y+ nominal auctions + buybacks (Aug 24–Oct 15):
Sep 9: 🔴 10Y auction (~$39B)
Sep 10: 🔴 30Y auction (~$22B) + 🟢 10-20Y buyback (≥$4B) ⚠️
Sep 15: 🔴 20Y auction (~$13B)
Sep 24: 🟢 20-30Y buyback (≥$4B)
Oct 1: 🟢 10-20Y buyback (≥$4B)
Oct 7: 🔴 10Y auction (~$39B)
Oct 8: 🔴 30Y auction (~$22B) + 🟢 20-30Y buyback (≥$4B) ⚠️
Oct 15: 🟢 10-20Y buyback (≥$4B)
-
Auctions: 1:00 p.m. ET
Buybacks: 1:40–2:00 p.m. ET
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When will Irans oil income run dry?
UANI tracks ~10 mb remaining off Malaysia early Oct (after 9 mb STS in Sept). Kpler estimated ~15 mb at start of Oct, clearing by mid-Oct. Bessent cited ~15 mb late Sept for final China deliveries in ~2 weeks, then claimed zero oil on water this week.
At Sept's ~300 kb/d draw rate, 10-15 mb lasts into Nov. Higher prior rates point to mid/late Oct exhaustion.
Payments typically lag 1-2 months after delivery/discharge, so last receipts likely by Dec or early 2027.
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How “open” is SoH ⁉️
Yes oil is getting thru, but when it costs $30bbl to use it (and oil is expensive), then suddenly driving it on (tiny) trucks is economical…
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Could this Omani notice kill SoH dark transits ⁉️
Oman’s ‘continuous-AIS rule for foreign vessels rule’ is not new - Ministerial Decision 30/2026 has applied since early February; the MSC notice around 1 Oct was an enforcement reminder amid Hormuz interference and attacks.
STS shuttles and many Hormuz transits already run dark for security. Strict AIS-on rules in Omani waters, where much of the shuttle and corridor traffic sits, could raise compliance costs or force more visible operations, adding friction to a system already carrying a large share of Gulf crude at record freight rates.
Breaching local traffic laws can invalidate insurance.
Feels like oil has not really reacted to the news as no enforcement / public prosecutions reported yet (penalties include fines and licence suspension).
BREAKING: In a surprising turn of events come news from Oman Maritime Security Centre (MSC) issued a high-profile reminder and strict operational directive enforcing the continuous operation of Automatic Identification Systems (AIS) for foreign vessels transiting Omani territorial waters.
While framed as an urgent operational directive amid heightened electronic interference and regional security threats in the Strait of Hormuz, the enforcement is legally grounded in Ministerial Decision No. 30/2026, which established the overarching regulatory framework for foreign-flagged vessels earlier in the year.
#IranWar #Hormuz #PersianGulf #OOTT
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It would see Trump needs to exceed 100% to get oil back to pre war.
Depleted inventories, reneging on a deal, and risk premiums can be kinda annoying.
Just so there is no confusion: Hormuz transits are both back to 100% of normal and Iran is shipping 0 of its normal 2mmb/d of crude and product exports. This admin truly working magic.
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Biral retweeted
Not sure anyone could have anticipated how thoroughly this war (in the absence of decisive action) would devolve into online trolling.
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Americans are tired of the costs of the Iran war hitting their pocket books - mainly thru gas, but also diesel, food (fertiliser) technology (helium) , interest rates etc.
The US govt has the ability to borrow infinite amounts of money in USD. Trump could simply subsidise gas/diesel to pre-war levels.
After the war, when oil drops ‘like a stone’ to ‘levels never seen before’, Trump could increase taxes to maintain the pre-war price and repay the debt.
The first small step towards subsidisation is obviously to remove all consumption taxes on gas/diesel.
If he is unwilling to take this approach why does he ask Americans to?
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US farmers already use tax-free red diesel for off road (ie on farm) vehicles, so wonder what he has in mind?
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As I recall the UK had said bases can’t be used for aggressive acts (only defensive strikes re SoH), so maybe the US relocating them to maintain a free hand in how they are used?
It has been revealed the US airforce was in such a rush to get its bombers out of RAF Fairford many of the aircraft left before aerial refuelling tankers had even been scrambled to support their journey back to the US mainland-NYT
Why was the rush so urgent…
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There have been a number of engine room strikes recently. These show precise targeting (not just fire and hope) and often take the tanker out for 2-3 months repair.
This reduces the STS-shuttle fleet, and when tanker charters cost close to $1m a day, that’s likely more than half the cost of the tanker!
UKMTO WARNING 156-26
Click here to view the full product⤵️
ukmto.org/-/media/ukmto/prod…
#MaritimeSecurity #MarSec
ALT UKMTO WARNING 156-26
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