Derivatives trader. AIM investing with a focus on Biotech.
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Imagine delivering that sort of news to the patient. Madness.
Well done
#avct
Avacta announces a new partial response observed in a patient with salivary gland cancer in the dose expansion phase of the FAP-Dox (AVA6000) Phase 1b trial. avacta.com/new-response-in-t… #AVCT
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Science aside, the last time I was surprised was when the logo changed from red to blue #avct
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BDO probably just sent grads and they're struggling a bit. End of story #avct
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When are the £200 play money chartists going to f off?? #avct
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Btw, they wouldn't have been appointed if they didn't already have a solution...
The fix has already begun.
There's strength in recognising weakness. Well done @coughlin582
#avct
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The post I needed
👏👏👏
#avct
Pharmacyclics was acquired by AbbVie for $21Bn in 2015.
Sales of Imbruvica are now taking a hit from BeiGene’s drug, Brukinsa. It happens. It’s pharma. Pharmacyclics did x200 from its low for these projected sales.
#AVCT can too. It’s not the stretch it appears if you understand preCISION.
Here’s just one (actually quite conservative) route:
➡️ AVA6000 replaces the benchmark (which is currently a cocktail of drugs) in salivary gland cancer (SGC) and runs £400m sales pa in 3/4 years (assume pharma pay x4 for those sales in said indication), £1.6Bn. Beating the benchmark now “very likely” according to the CEO. Avacta could be billing its entire current market cap in yearly SGC sales in 2027/8.
➡️ AVA6000 replaces doxorubicin in the Keynote 522 regimen (which is Keytruda plus doxorubicin) in triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) and runs £750m sales pa in 5/6 years (assume pharma pay x5 for those sales in TNBC), £3.75Bn.
➡️ AVA6000 replaces the benchmark in soft tissue sarcoma (currently, doxorubicin). Assume £200m pa sales in 4/5 years. Assume pharma pay x4 those sales, £800m.
➡️ AVA6103 works in human just as it has in pre-clinical studies to date. That would make it a genuine blockbuster. Assume just £2Bn pa sales (which would be very conservative if it works in human and produces the same type of complete responses as seen in animals to date). For perspective, Enhertu (the ADC) is forecast to bill £10Bn in a single year come 2030. Assume x5 future sales of £2Bn. That’s £10Bn.
➡️ preCISION can be applied to nearly any warhead (assuming AVA6103 repeats what has been seen with AVA6000 that’s very likely possible). That platform would be worth an eyewatering amount. But let’s conservatively call it £2Bn. And throw in the rest of the future pipeline (AVA7103) at zero value. As soon as AVA6103 shows replication in human is possible, the game changes again.
Assume AVCT retain everything and have 600m on issue (rather than 500m if they go down the partnership route)
£18Bn / 600m = £30 per share.
That’s c.x100 from today’s SP.
Could quite easily be north of £20Bn with total issuance closer to 500m than 600m, if done right.
The market currently assumes a <1% chance of all these events happening. If you assume it’s about 7.5%, that’s 225p per share.
However that shackles AVA6000’s chance of success to AVA6103’s which is not fair.
Just a 51% chance of success for AVA6000 in salivary gland cancer is worth 222p today (valuing everything else at zero).
Recall, Alastair Smith was able to fund preCISION at 50p, without a cornerstone investor(!) We now have another year of data and require 80% to get back to this placing price. The market has gone absolutely mad as the data goes from strength to strength.
If the board’s financial ambition for shareholders matched their excitement for preCISION, AVCT would be viewed through a very different prism today.
Case in point: what’s ‘the beast’…. ‘that dent in cancer I’ve been looking for’ actually worth?
“Oh about £2-4m”… this patently from someone who cares a lot more about “the dent” than shareholders’ equity. Which is fine, it’s just not a logical value to place on such ambition.
Perceptions matter. AVA6000 is not just another P1b drug. It’s disruption of a multiple billion dollar landscape, with the ability to attach the IP to almost anything.
That’s a lot more exciting than anything Pharmacyclics ever owned.
The difference is Pharmacyclics had a Bob Duggan. The man who sold cookies and everyone ridiculed for not being cut from the same Big Pharma cloth.
He then went and did it all again with Summit Therapeutics. Not a scientist. Just a very hungry, deeply commercial man with a plan.
I suspect there’s a lesson in the Bob Duggan story that Avacta’s science-heavy and nouse-light board could heed.
But can AVCT still do x100 from here?
Yes. Anyone who rules this out so casually simply doesn’t understand pharma, the investment proposition, nor the IP.
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The science is deafening...
Will have a listen for the q&a
#avct
Dr Christina Coughlin, Chief Executive Officer, and Michelle Morrow, Chief Scientific Officer, will be presenting at a webinar on 15 May 2025 at 6.00 pm (BST). turnerpope.com/register/ #AVCT
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#AACR25 could be it. It got CC out of twitter retirement (with all the @s and abuse..)
#avct
#letsdothis
Avacta #AVCT pleased to announce three presentations at #AACR25 to showcase the pre|CISION platform and pipeline
#PeptidesCreateHope
#LetsDoThis
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SP pushing well. Would suggest all to get ready for some strong FUD in the next cpl of weeks. They'll try hard to stop #avct from breaking out of range.
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Happy to be corrected, but haven't we passed all submission deadlines and we still don't know if we are attending ASCO or AACR?
If so, seems obvious attendance is not down to #avct or why can't it be disclosed?!
A lot now pointing towards an announcement at one of the events
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Wouldn't be surprised if the end of the grey box coincides with a nasdaq listing (early next year). When BP buys into the science/platform, they will also take equity stakes in #avct ahead of a big liquidity event such as an IPO.
Q2 will be very interesting
The talking point from Leerink isn’t the grey box.
Anyone who follows #AVCT knows there are multiple partnering opportunities.
The significant point is STS has been removed from the Co’s pitch deck, suggesting they don’t need to pitch what was once their lead indication any further.
As @AM231982 has been suggesting for months, I suspect they will forgo rights to STS to fund SGC and TNBC (the latter being partnered when P1b data is in, the former remaining 100% owned).
Away from STS, they are already beating SGC’s PFS.
The reason the investigators are so excited (these are the very best SGC clinicians in the world) is the responses being observed are durable.
Note the change from meaningful to durable in the title.
There is c. 2m between these waterfalls. The cancers are simply not growing. Even in those patients where treatment has stopped. That’s because of the bystander effect preCISION enables.
All about trend. There’s good reason they will use a major conference to unveil PFS data on SGC. They know exactly what they are sat on. They know they have already beaten the benchmark.
Data. Partner. Data. Takeover.
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Last 3 RNSs have felt rushed, as if they've been waiting for a green light from someone else.
They are clearly not worried about the SP, as things could be/are moving in the background...
But theres a real rush to call us a pure play ahead of time.
Agreement reached?
#avct
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First time we haven't been told what we are actually presenting 🤔🤔 #avct
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Cellar boy retweeted
The week before last folk were spreading baseless rumours about #AVCT’s Dx sale having fallen through.
On Friday AVCT confirmed Launch had been sold and the current cash balance is enough to see the company into Q1 2026.
Coris is yet to be sold but if you assume the same haircut, you can assume c.£17m total sale price for both Dx units. The amount we receive for Coris will be = to approx x1 CLN payment.
A few weeks before, folk were spreading rumours P1b had been delayed. On Friday, AVCT confirmed P1b is well underway.
WithPower tracks the number of available spots accurately: ~34 remain.
This is of a potential 60-90 total (AVCT confirmed on Friday there will be 20-30 patients per P1b cohort).
Therefore, the worst case as of Friday is 26 patients already enrolled (60-34). The best case is 56 patients have been enrolled (90-34).
Either figure is a step change in speed. P1b does not follow a 3+3 design so we don’t have to wait to see if a dose is safe before escalating as we did in P1a.
We are still in the dark on trial design (for good reason) but dosing may be bi-weekly in P1b (which seems likely given the highly favourable PK from Q2W dosing), but it could also be Q3W for certain indications.
Consider AVCT has been in P1b for a number of weeks now (we don’t know exactly how long).
Then consider the heavily pre-treated SGC patient was seeing complete regression of metastasis after just two cycles (6 weeks).
When AVA6000 works, it works quickly.
And when they stop dosing AVA6000 it continues to work.
This takes us to the PFS figures - also released on Friday - which confirm of the 11 SGC patients, 9 are without disease progression.
The median time of follow up is approx 5 months.
The literature in this *pre-treated* SGC setting reports a PFS of approximately 3.5 months. As @Blueberrymgmnt states, Dox is not the standard of care for SGC. It’s often a combo. What’s more, recognise just how heavily pre-treated these SGC patients were in P1a.
In P1b it’s a different make-up. With 0 or 1 prior line of therapy permitted.
Median PFS is not the median of the time of disease progression or death but the time when 50% or more patients have progressed disease or have died.
I.e. AVCT has already beaten the PFS (which will likely be the endpoint they use in the registrational trial of AVA6000).
To reach the median PFS AVCT will need to see 4 of remaining patients see their disease progress.
What is unique about AVA6000 is with naked dox you would typically expect those patients who have had to stop treatment (due to safety) see their cancer grow.
What is happening with AVA6000 is even after dosing has stopped, the cancer is kept at bay.
Why?
The bystander effect is the process whereby cancer cells that have received a specific therapy are able to bring about growth inhibition in untreated cells in the same tumour population.
pre|CISION leverages the bystander effect to efficiently kill both FAP+ and FAP-cells.
So even after the drug has stopped being dosed, it is keeping the cancer at bay.
We saw this with the patient who saw complete regression of his skin metastases. Three others are experiencing this bystander effect, too.
Note this patient was enrolled in September 2024. 6+ months ago. He had four cycles of 385mg every 3 weeks. So he stopped dosing sometime in December.
Despite stopping dosing, he was continuing to see his lesions shrink.
At the time of the RNS last week (ie early March) he has still not seen disease progression, despite stopping the drug c. 3 months ago.
Hopefully he does not see progression (but if he were to) he would need to be joined by another 3 patients (who have also seen disease progression) for AVCT to hit their median PFS. Or by some of the other 5 patients who remain on drug.
As a result, AVCT are now signalling a readout in Q2 2025. That is surely so they can update on the median PFS on the SGC cohort
SGC will soon have a standard of care.
Some see that, some don’t.
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