Absolutely overwhelming amount of info for
$SIVE this week. Not sure how this company is ~1.4b
1. Lumilens raises over $900 million to replace data center wires with light.
$POET gets lasers from
$SIVE. Should trickle down if there are no surprises.
2.
$AEVA launches an AI data center optics business with a hyperscaler deal, planning to use its existing manufacturing and foundry supply chain for volume production.
#SIVE is likely the laser supplier. CEO Vikram liked Aeva CEO's LinkedIn post about the expansion. Don't think he wouldn't like it if they lost the revenue and switched suppliers.
3. Jane Street opens and closes their short position in
$SIVE within 24 hours. Extremely unusual. Could be some motive?
4.
$GFS earnings confirm 7 new optical networking design wins. Sivers is the reference laser across SCALE.
$GFS also doubling silicon photonics revenue showing demand is growing.
5.
$TSEM earnings confirm a multiyear III-V wafer supply deal with
$IQE, the same company believed to supply Sivers' Glasgow fab. Tower also calls NPO a significant near term opportunity with deployments starting over the next year.
6. FCC drafts a ban on Chinese optical transceivers.
$AAOI is the only major supplier with US based manufacturing already running. Both sit on the right side of this policy.
7.
$AMD MI500 Instinct chip confirmed going optical from Q2 earnings. Sivers has two confirmed paths to being the laser supplier, through Ayar Labs or through
$GFS SCALE.
8.
$VIAV confirms CPO test revenues hitting this quarter, accelerating in December. CEO said CPO delay talk is nonsense. 1.6T ramping very quickly. Early CPO production H2 2027, volume inflection 2028. Right on the Sivers timeline.
9.
$LITE CEO warned the InP laser supply gap for AI data centers is more severe than the memory shortage. With 5 InP fabs, shipments would still be 30 percent below customer demand. CW DFB laser demand validated.
10.
$MTSI earnings transcript confirms customers coming with urgency due to general supply shortage of indium phosphide DFB lasers. Emphasis on urgency. Ummm yeah this is
$SIVE.
11.
$AAOI prints record revenue for the fifth consecutive quarter, demand outpacing capacity through mid 2027. Also skipping Gen 1 CPO, which opens more market share for
$SIVE and others in that lane.
I'm sure I missed a few notes. Pretty exciting week. Literally insane...
Next week has some important earnings calls that most likely will solidify the thesis even more. We got
$LITE,
$COHR, and
$IQE