I lead a research service for Puerto Rico bondholders. Former contributor to Reuters.

Tulsa, Oklahoma
Good round-up of the corporate bankruptcy filing (Chapter 11) of Florida based Brightline railroad #muniland.
17 Brightline-related entities have filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Here's what it means. bizjournals.com/orlando/news…
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The 1st Circuit denied an appeal by Prepa bondholders (& trustee) who were trying to force a claim for repayment on the Puerto Rico central govt (Commonwealth) for changing the law related to the utility #muniland. This is separate from bondholders litigating their claim directly against the utility. I thought there was little chance of overturning the Title 3 court because the indenture explicitly stated the Commonwealth was not liable for payment of Prepa bonds. Opinion: drive.google.com/file/d/13vK…
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It would be great to see a comparison of the testing costs for Anthropic/OpenAI vs open source models.
Scoop: The National Security Agency is spending billions this year on testing AI models - far more than previously known Per a classified NSA estimate described by sources Compute costs for AI have exploded - including for taxpayers washingtonsun.com/technology…
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Cate Long retweeted
wow, I wanted to wait until we had a chance to see the deal before I commented. this is an incredible, historic accomplishment.
Ok, we now have the actual text of the Greenland deal (whitehouse.gov/briefings-sta…), so we can say how it compares to the existing 1951 arrangement and who, between Trump and Denmark, lied the most in their framing of it. Long story short - which may surprise some - the Danes lied the most: Trump is pretty much correct in saying that this new deal grants the US control of Greenland. Let's look into what changed compared to the 1951 deal. 1) This is now a permanent arrangement: whereas the existing 1951 deal only lasted as long as NATO existed, this one "does not have an end date and may only be amended by mutual consent." It even survives a hypothetical future independence of Greenland: in that event, Denmark and Greenland must ensure that the independent Greenlandic state "affirmatively assume[s] all of the rights and obligations of the Kingdom of Denmark specified in this Agreement." 2) In the 1951 agreement, the US could set up bases only where both governments agreed, and only on the basis of NATO planning. The new deal locks in three bases: the US can "modernize and expand its activities" at Pituffik, its only base in Greenland until now, and "shall be allowed to establish an additional Defense Area at Narsarsuaq and Mestersvig." Further bases beyond these 3 can be justified by the defense of "the American continent," a US interest rather than a NATO one. Also, quite subtle but this is interesting: Article IV(iii) says that "the United States may establish additional defense areas in Greenland" and that consultations are then held "to decide implementation details based on mutual agreement." What this means is that the principle of a new base is automatically granted and only the implementation details require agreement. Article VII also gives the US "the right to raise concerns regarding construction, or change of use" of any building near a US base, after which the parties decide together what to do. Which means that the US has a say over civilian planning around its bases. 3) On US military movement across Greenland, the wording change between the 1951 agreement and this new one is quite funny. The 1951 text said (Art. V(3)): the US "may enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the defense areas through Greenland, including territorial waters, by land, air and sea," but only "in accordance with general rules mutually agreed upon and issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The new one says: "the United States of America shall enjoy... the right of free access to and movement between the Defense Areas through Greenland, including the Territorial Waters, by land, air and sea." That's it: "May" becomes "shall," and the US military movement no longer has to follow rules "issued by the appropriate Danish authority in Greenland." The US also gets something new on top: "undersea access to and movement within the Territorial Waters," i.e. submarines. 4) Non-NATO exclusion: non-NATO states are barred from military installations or a persistent presence in Greenland unless all three parties approve, giving the US an effective permanent veto. The 1951 deal had no equivalent clause. 5) Investment screening: this is entirely new. "States or investors from a state that is not a member of NATO, a NATO partner, or an EU member state" (i.e. Russia, China, India, the Gulf States, etc.), "shall not be allowed to have (i) control, (ii) significant influence, or (iii) access to non-public information...within Particularly Sensitive Sectors or Activities in the territory of Greenland (including the Territorial Waters), unless agreed between the Parties." Again, it basically means that the US has a permanent veto over who can invest in strategic sectors in Greenland, as far as non-NATO or EU states are concerned. 6) Lastly, in stark contrast with the 1951 deal, the framing of the deal changes significantly: this new deal is largely framed around the US. The 1951 agreement existed only "for the benefit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization." The new one lists the defense of "the American continent" as an objective, celebrates "the irreplaceable role" of the United States military as well as "the United States' indispensable historical and ongoing contributions to the security and defense of Greenland," and names the establishment of Trump's "Golden Dome" missile defense system as a key goal. So, to sum up: - The US secured a permanent military foothold that even an independent Greenland would inherit whether it likes it or not - The US now has veto power over any non-NATO military presence in Greenland, and over who can invest in its strategic infrastructure and resources (beyond NATO and the EU) - Denmark signed away its say over the principle of new US bases, with only the right to discuss the "implementation details" - Danish authorities no longer set the rules for US military movement across the island - And all of it is now justified by the defense of "the American continent" I don't know in which universe this even remotely "recognizes the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Kingdom and the Greenlandic people's right to self-determination," as Danish PM Mette Frederiksen put it (stm.dk/en/press/press-releas…). Yes, the preamble of the text cynically "reaffirms" Danish sovereignty but, in my book, when you let a foreign country put bases on your soil, move its troops without following your rules and veto who else can come in, in perpetuity, after it spent two years threatening to take you by force, the word for that is anything but "recognized sovereignty" 🤷
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WSJ reports more details of the Brightline restructuring #muniland: + Assured, BlackRock, First Eagle, Invesco, Nomura & Nuveen agree to provide $490 million in exit financing + Debt to be reduced from $5.5 billion to ~ $2.7B. Senior secured muni debt remains unimpaired wsj.com/pro/bankruptcy/flori…
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.@LlorensEva asks the Puerto Rico OBoard if they plan to continue with the 5th amended Prepa plan of adjustment #muniland. OB chair Gonzalez says no discussions have occured with any of the 97% of bondholders that supported the bh rejection statement made after the latest OB's offer [>30% recovery]. Gonzalez said they haven't come up with an alternative Prepa plan of adjustment. He said no final decision has been made about engaging in additional mediation. The OBoard plans to continue with litigation [same approach they've had since 2017. It's astonishing the OBoard thinks the 5th plan would be confirmable even if Blackrock, Nuveen renewed their support]. Gonzalez says 1st Circuit appeals may impact the Prepa bankruptcy but out of their control. Most of their public meeting and press conference discussion has revolved around them trying to justify why they approved & then revoked the Power Expectations contract for Prepa temporary generation. Lots of excuses of why the process to bring new generation online has taken 9+ years.
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Anyone underwriting software credit should have a look at this When software buyers adopt frontier models, incumbent vendors see lower spend 43% of the time and flat spend 41%. Only 17% churn... This report (Qualitate) suggests FLAT spending is the stage BEFORE displacement. Buyers pause first w/o ripping out systems that are embedded in a company's ops. Look at $NOW...the AI-related pressure is due to its customers holding spending flat vs. leaving. If this is the case across levered software credit, we likely just grind lower across multiple A&Es w/o a clear hard default in the near-term
Introducing the Qualitate AI Disruption Report. Across 4,800+ discussions, enterprise software buyers linked AI to lower/flat vendor spend or planned churn in 9% of conversations. Up from 3% six months earlier. Here's where the pressure is building:
Paid partnership (ad)
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Private train operator Brightline likely to file Chapter 11 w/ bond insurer Assured leading a $350 million DIP financing. The holders of corporate debt are lowest priority & will likely be wiped out #muniland. Unclear if/how the muni debt will be reprofiled. Local reporting: bocaratontribune.com/bocarat… Helpful chart of the debt stack from BBG: bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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SoftBank Group kicked off what’s set be one of the largest corporate junk bond sales ever as the Japanese conglomerate taps debt investors to fund large-scale investments in artificial intelligence." The conglomerate is marketing: $1 billion of 3.5-year bonds to yield 8.75% to 8.875%, $4.5 billion of 5.5-year securities at 9.375% to 9.5% and the same amount of 7.5-year notes at 9.75% to 9.87 Those would be the highest-ever levels for SoftBank dollar bonds of those maturities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. As of late afternoon Wednesday in Asia, the orderbook for the dollar part of the deal had exceeded $30 billion, people familiar with the matter said." #frothy bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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GASB GAAP taxonomy - Phase One components #muniland
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Alan Skelton of the Government Accounting Standards Board @FAFNorwalk describes the taxonomy they are developing for @xbrlus data tagging #muniland
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In my opinion the success of data tagging for #muniland > > ie @xbrlus hinges on the CUSIP litigation currently happening in the SDNY. The high price of licensing CUSIPs (the system for identifying bonds) means we don't have broadly available and free retail bond platforms. CUSIP Global Services prohibits the redistribution of their identifiers by data vendors. This is the basis for the antitrust complaint that is now going forward. Note it costs nothing to use equity symbols which has led to the wide proliferation of retail stock platforms. Via Gemini: "The CUSIP antitrust litigation in the Southern District of New York has reached a critical turning point following a major procedural victory for the plaintiffs. On August 28, 2026, SDNY District Judge Katherine Polk Failla officially certified the class in the ongoing lawsuit against CUSIP Global Services (CGS), the American Bankers Association (ABA), FactSet, and S&P Global. Under this order, the case has been unstayed and is now actively moving forward toward trial or potential settlement negotiations."
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Credit is WIDE open and COMPLETELY shut at the same time. Just depends on who you are. Strong issuers are getting funded at tight spreads. Weak ones (look at CCC spreads for example) resort to distressed exchanges And the LMEs don't work. Half of this year's defaults were 2nd-time defaulters
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Tiffany Ridenbaugh, Chief Deputy Auditor at the Ohio State Auditor highlights their Ohio Fiscal Indicator report which monitors cities, counties, school districts, universities etc at @xbrlus muni finance conference #muniland
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Oliver Geisecke, Scientist at Uber; formerly Research Fellow, @HooverInst at the @xbrlus muni finance conference highlights the fiscal dashboard he helped build for cities, counties & states #muniland municipalfinance.stanford.ed…
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"As #China & the US race to build separate #AI supply chains, investors are playing both sides, esp as US banks fundraise for 🇨🇳 AI upstarts... Wall St banks are acting as bookrunners on 19 Chinese high-tech equity deals worth $17.2 billion so far this yr, roughly 30% of total issuance" reuters.com/business/retail-…
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𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐢𝐚𝐥 𝐋𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝘉𝘢𝘯𝘬 𝘊&𝘐 𝘭𝘰𝘢𝘯 𝘨𝘳𝘰𝘸𝘵𝘩 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴, 𝘢𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯 Commercial & industrial loan growth accelerated in Q2 2026 to a rate not seen since 2022... Learn more: greenwich.com/commercial-ban…
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The US Department of Energy convened an emergency meeting following the cancellation of the temporary power generation contract in Puerto Rico. It is still unresolved how Prepa will get enough generation online to stop rolling blackouts in times of high demand #muniland
Energía federal indagó sobre el frustrado contrato con Power Expectations. “Le preocupaba todo este asunto de qué iba a pasar después y las lecciones aprendidas”, dijo Mary Zapata, exdirectora ejecutiva de la AEE. noticel.com/noticias/2026092…
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