Canada
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A little bit in here about when a veteran PJM trader sees the US grid get completely altered by data centre demand. But in trader form, not much.
New Episode Out Now 🎙️
Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock) is the co-founder of GBE Energy, a proprietary trading firm specialising in power markets, and in this episode, he joins @moritzseibert for a fascinating look inside a market few investors ever get to see.
toptradersunplugged.com/podc…
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Cory Paddock retweeted
New Episode Out Now 🎙️
Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock) is the co-founder of GBE Energy, a proprietary trading firm specialising in power markets, and in this episode, he joins @moritzseibert for a fascinating look inside a market few investors ever get to see.
toptradersunplugged.com/podc…
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Stop posting your receipts. You will get too many followers.
The claims I made three years ago that got me most criticism seem to have been completely vindicated:
- war in Ukraine is AI and technologically driven, not return to WW1 and artillery
- AI is really the metaverse by a different name
- Israel is committing genocide in Gaza
- US not retreating from world politics but merely embracing brute force as only resource
- China will catch up and overcome the US on tech without breaking much of a sweat
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Cory Paddock retweeted
The best energy traders don't just grind for consistent monthly returns.
Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock), founder of GBE (power trading firm), on why elite P&L is lumpy by design:
"5 to 10 trades make up the majority of your year."
"The rest you're just trying to learn, stay up, milk the market, pick up dollars here and there."
"You accumulate P&L — but more importantly, accumulate future learning you can apply to a big setup."
"Have the capital behind you to throw at that setup."
"You can't set a monthly target. It's very chunky and volatile."
"We've always just thought about: trade well. Results come."
"Leaner years sometimes just mean there weren't opportunities — not that you traded poorly."
What It's Like Building a Proprietary Power Trading Firm with Cory Paddock
Cory Paddock (@cdpaddock) has been trading the physical power grid since the early 2000s. He built his own firm from scratch in 2014 — trading his own capital — and has navigated every major paradigm shift in U.S. energy markets since coal dominated the grid.
"It's the perfect amount of darkness. The information is public — but it's in the dark."
We cover:
- How Cory built a point of view on paradigm shifts before the market caught up
- Why power trading sits at the intersection of economics & physics — and why that matters for edge
- Why backtesting more than a few years of power data is basically useless — the grid isn't the same grid
- LMP & locational marginal pricing: how physical grid constraints turn into alpha if you know where to look
- The 5–10 trades that make your year — and why forcing setups in the lean periods kills you
- How GBE stripped pay uncertainty out of trader comp so people can just focus on trading well
- What it actually feels like watching your own money swing in real-time — and when it stops feeling that way
Thanks so much Cory for coming on Odds on Open!
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
01:09 Starting GBE and finding trading edge
01:38 Overview of electricity markets and pricing
02:05 Power trading structure and deregulated markets
04:11 Research pipeline for market data analysis
04:56 Domain knowledge and renewable energy trading
06:39 LLMs and AI tools for quants
07:49 Grid data and intraday market signals
09:25 Finding alpha in electricity markets
10:13 Paradigm shifts and regime change insights
13:19 Coal to gas, wind, and solar trends
14:39 Data centers, EVs, and load growth
16:47 Recruiting talent in energy trading firms
17:38 Gen Z quants and algorithmic trading skills
21:55 Outliers, agency, and Gen Z traders
24:11 Culture and innovation in quant finance
27:29 Trading personal capital and risk management
28:06 PJM West Hub and market dynamics
32:19 Five-minute tick data and volatility
34:49 High-conviction trades and alpha generation
35:35 Incentive alignment and trader performance
36:42 Pay structure and removing stress capital
39:22 Motivation and purpose in trading careers
40:00 Passing knowledge to the next generation
42:04 Host reflections on electricity trading
42:14 Closing thoughts and sign-off
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We sure Meta has a board member with enough context to oversee this?
Meta is venturing into electricity trading, betting it can accelerate the construction of new US power plants that are vital to its AI ambitions... "Meta says the ability to trade power will give it more flexibility to secure and manage energy and capacity deals. 'For example, Meta could commit to long-term purchases from power plants that aren’t yet constructed, which in turn will enable these new power plants to complete the necessary long-lead time steps to be built', the company said in an email."
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Important and timely. The first half a summary of @MacaesBruno tweets, columns and talks from the past two years. The second, an illuminating analysis of the present moment, the liminal void in order, the hollowing of western asabiyya, indeterminant of what comes next.
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Re: the @basepowerco Series C and storage. Two things can be true at the same time - our power infrastructure is significantly underutilized while often insufficient to meet peak demand. For many use cases, smart batteries cheaper and better than dumb steel in the ground.
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This is the thread Canada needs to read and consider very thoroughly. And why we should be partnering as much as possible with Ukraine’s defence entities. To their benefit and to our own learning.
The war of the future is already here—and you are not sufficiently scared of it. Unless, that is, you are Ukrainian. 1/9
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If you guys think word probability generators are energy intensive, wait until Zuck gets ahold of some video data.
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Recorded live at @yesenergy EMPOWER 2025, my very power trading centric conversation with Scott Adair, CEO and Co-Founder of Cascade Trading.
From his early years trading on the night shift at Powerex to managing retail books and launching Cascade, Scott candidly shares the moments that shaped his approach to risk, timing, and intuition.
We also discuss how to parse out asymmetric insight from markets flooded with data, what distinguishes great traders from merely good ones, why volatility is only increasing, and my own somewhat obscure trade floor superstition.
#energytrading #powertrading
cc @rtoinsider @grid_status @maxk @MeredithAngwin @kyrib
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