What route can risk take? If it has an address (like the energy complex) that is where the hit will be taken. If risk doesn’t have a place to route, like a runaway long term side of the debt cycle, or the market perceive Fed ind. is lost then big selloff
linkedin.com/pulse/catastrop…
Andy Harris voted to cut $453 million from Social Security's budget. On September 24th, join me and former Social Security Commissioner Martin O'Malley at the Bel Air Armory from 6-8pm to talk about what the future of Social Security could look like in the hands of people who want to protect it. Bring your questions!
RSVP: mobilize.us/schwartzforcongr…#MD01#SocialSecurity#ProtectSocialSecurity
Great chart by @fundstrat. Always loved this one, and it's an important reminder of how the relationship between stocks and rates dramatically changes depending on the level of rates.
GDP Nowcast is at 5.1%. To me, this indicates a significant portion of record high interest rates is due to growth, and not a sudden realization that the US has a debt problem… 5.1% is a GARGANTUAN number for an economy our size. We have 5% of pop and consume 25% of resources…
Rethinking education can revolutionize productivity just as much as AI can, and I think @garberchov is an emerging leader I. The area. Follow him if you don’t. Follow him if you truly care about your kids education as you certainly should.
Past Oligarchs built this. The new ones put it in your phone for free. And for $200 a month more you have the power of 50 programmers.
And this is bad?
Past Oligarchs built this. The new ones put it in your phone for free. And for $200 a month more you have the power of 50 programmers.
And this is bad?
Great graph that shows why polling has deteriorated in quality. This platform is also a huge reasons why. Millions of people posting things as polls that aren't actually polls. Fun.
Great article by my close friend and former colleague @Schwartz4_MD1st just had a baby girl but he’s rising to the call. You know why because people in our generation like @JDVance are complete self-serving frauds. Dan has integrity, not Trump adoration.
progressive.org/op-eds/trump…
I think there may be a big VIX crush, absent any unexpected prodigious adverse catalysts into the end of September. Anyways, I am positioned as such. I’m so short VIX right now I could fall into my shoe. May sounds crazy, but that’s how I’m positioned…
Thoughts?
@fundstrat
The Fed’s decision to hike interest rates this past week isn’t supported by the economy’s performance. But it may make sense if the move was intended to establish the Fed’s independence under the new chair. The President has said he wants the Fed to cut rates, yet the FOMC voted unanimously to raise them.
Fed chose violence (rate hike)
But this is actually a set up for an equity rally
- incremental data points likely dovish
- Fed moves “max” hawkish, now room to walk back
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@FundstratCap@BitMNR$BMNR$BMNP
“People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.” -Karl Marx
Oh wait, it was Adam Smith actually.
"The Fed is fighting a real problem. Inflation is too high. These higher interest rates are costly medicine." My take on the rate hike this morning with @NPR's Morning Edition: what the Fed is trying to do, what it can't do, and who pays along the way. npr.org/2026/09/17/nx-s1-597…