Geopolitical and macro cycle analyst. Founder @NoodlesResearch. I connect the dots others miss. -The Research Terminal-

Based in Europe
Half the people making $100k+ are terrified of losing their corporate jobs. The government calls stepping away "Not In Labor Force" (NILF). We just swapped pointless Zoom meetings for 3 screens in the trenches. That’s why I think robinhood:0xdb97b2aefd6816485a757ae49280d598a5c9c848 has the most potential on Robinhood Chain right now. It’s not some random forced mascot, it’s literally our daily reality. $NILF
Americans are increasingly worried about their jobs. The perceived probability among US consumers that the unemployment rate will be higher in 1-year increased +1.6 percentage points in August, to 44.4%, its highest since April 2020. Excluding the 2020 pandemic, this marks the highest reading since the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations began in 2013. By comparison, this indicator peaked at 44.1% in April 2025, following uncertainty around tariffs. By income, the perceived probability of a rise in unemployment was the highest among those earning over $100,000, at 50.3%, the 2nd-highest reading on record. By comparison, expectations stood at 43.5% among those earning $50,000-$100,000, the 2nd-highest reading since March 2025, and 38.0% among those earning under $50,000, the highest since May. Fear of unemployment is rising.
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Trump sends his regards Again and again.
BREAKING: Iran declares it will imminently respond to the US attacks against Iran tonight, with the response being "many times greater than the US attacks," and that "American interests and bases in the region will quickly come under Iranian fire," in the coming hours, per a senior Iranian military source to Tasnim.
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Replying to @elonmusk
Elon is Marocco not Spain.
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Do you know the story of Ivan The Fool?
Looking at charts, and I think AI bubble is bursting. Yes, you can leave negative comments as always. But remember to bookmark this and check back in a few months.
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Replying to @brian_armstrong
How can you be so clueless?
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How is possible 1 trade, 1x short, 806% ? Even this picture is fake. Is this a Aster promotional post by you?
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This is what we built for @NoodlesResearch terminal. Cycle models, on-chain metrics, regime indicators. Everything to help investors understand the market and know where they stand. Free and open to everyone soon. noodlesresearch.com/terminal Would you buy here?
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Trump must have bet here too, he was tired of winning.
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Tuesday the Senate told Trump to pull troops out of Iran. 50 to 48. First time ever. But that vote only passed because two Republicans were missing. McConnell in the hospital, McCormick gone. The majority against the war was never even real. Then Wednesday Trump drove to the Capitol himself. He stood over Senator Cassidy and told him to sit down. He raised his voice. Cassidy admitted it. Hours later Vance and Witkoff walked him into the White House. By that night Cassidy flipped. Rand Paul flipped too. The only resolution with real teeth, the one that could have forced Trump to stop, died 50 to 47. Now read what that means. The last legal brake on a ground invasion is gone. And in the same week, the Pentagon is asking Congress for 80 billion dollars for this war, to refill the munitions and the stockpiles. You do not refill stockpiles for a war that is ending. A senator votes no on Tuesday. Gets yelled at Wednesday. Gets walked into a back room. Votes yes by night. We told you Congress can make noise but cannot stop this. The brake is gone. The money is moving. December is coming.
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$M is rugging as predicted. Exchanges like Kraken, Binance, and Bybit continue to allow this. @binance Alpha token crimes continue to happen systematically. $MYX $RAVE $SKY $LAB $COAI
A potential big scam is going on with #MemeCore $M 🤨 Ghost chain. $2.5B valuation. $10 in total transaction fees. 7 validators, all running the minimum 7M $M stake. 7 wallets controlling the entire network. Geth fork. Codebase is a rebranded Go-Ethereum clone. “Proof of Meme” is standard PoA/dPoS with 10-block rotation among the same 7 nodes farming 800k $ for day. Empty orderbooks everywhere. Spot depth is virtually zero. Perp orderbooks are just as thin in a 5-10% range. The price is being held up with no real liquidity behind it on either side. 83% of supply unaccounted for. 10B max supply. 1.7B circulating. No public unlock schedule for the remaining 8.3B tokens. Manufactured volume. MemeMax requires users to generate fees equal to 50% of their reward to withdraw. Forced activity to simulate usage on a dead chain. DYOR.
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STRC is down 15% in two weeks. Saylor said he "designed it with ChatGPT."
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The full text of the Islamabad MOU is now public. Read it. Iran gets immediate oil export waivers, banking waivers, and access to frozen assets upon signing. The US gets the Strait of Hormuz reopened. On the nuclear program, on the withdrawal of US forces, on the $300 billion reconstruction plan, on everything else: “to be discussed in the next 60 days.” And Israel, which is fighting a war in Lebanon explicitly covered by this document, is not bound by any of it.
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Everyone is celebrating a peace deal. It’s not a peace deal. What’s being signed on June 19 in Geneva is a Memorandum of Understanding that opens 60 days of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program. Friday they sign a commitment to negotiate peace. Not peace itself. Two completely different things. This is exactly what we projected. A pause aligned with the World Cup window. An MOU dressed up as victory for domestic consumption. “MISSION ACCOMPLISHED” posted by the White House itself, the exact phrase Bush used on the USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003. The Iraq War lasted another 8 years after that banner. Meanwhile, on the ground: Israel is not a party to this agreement. The IDF ordered 29 villages evacuated in southern Lebanon the same day the deal was announced, many beyond the original invasion line. Defense Minister Katz swore the IDF will remain in southern Lebanon. Ben Gvir said “Trump’s agreement does not bind us.” The IDF is preparing an offensive on Nabatieh, a Hezbollah stronghold. The MOU says “permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon.” Israel is operating militarily in the exact theater the agreement covers, without being bound by it. Iran says the US agreed to release $25 billion in frozen assets. Trump says no cash. They’re already describing the same deal in incompatible terms. Iran has warned it will resume operations if Israeli strikes in Lebanon continue. The question is not whether they sign on Friday. They probably will. The question is what happens between Day 1 and Day 60 while Israel keeps advancing in Lebanon. Paris 1973. Oslo 1993. JCPOA 2015. Signed frameworks during active conflict where a principal military actor is not a signatory have a survival rate near zero. noodlesresearch.com/research…
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The Pentagon just dropped alien files and it’s not even the weirdest thing on my timeline this morning🤷‍♂️
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We published the Iran Playbook on June 3. Phase 1: the World Cup window. ‘’Expected Cosmetic diplomacy. A framework with no enforcement. Oil eases. Markets exhale.’’ The World Cup opened yesterday. Today Trump told a crowd in Georgia that “we ended the war with Iran” and “they have agreed to never have a nuclear weapon.” At a tele-rally. For a Senate candidate. Not at the White House. Not with a signed document. At a phone call for Burt Jones. Hours later a senior Iranian official goes on MSNOW. Iran has not agreed to anything. Oil dropped. Stocks bounced. Billions moved on a deal that does not exist, again, for roughly the fortieth time. You would think this is the dystopian sci-fi era described in 90’ movies. It is , but more banal than expected, where apresident declares the end of a war at a campaign rally, the other side denies it on live television, and nobody blinks because this is just how it works now. Trump's statements are not meant to be true, they are meant to work, 70 million evangelicals in the heartland do not need the deal to be real. They need the story, markets believe it for 48 hours because the cost of not believing a presidential headline is too high for an algorithm, and the mainstream media doesn't believe it but has to cover it anyway.. With the SpaceX IPO cleared at $75 billion, the liquidity drain that crushed everything for two weeks is over. Markets get room to breathe now in coming weeks. Israel will continue to expand in Lebanon, while everyone is focused on WC. Then July 19. Final whistle. That is when the cover comes off… noodlesresearch.com/research…
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Replying to @Jditibbiroshi
🤨🤨🤨 ‘’At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets, much like we have with Venezuela’’ Sometimes i forget you are a Trump lover, But this literally means, at some point we will invade Iran and take possession of the island. Otherwise, how will you take possession of it? This is simply what he wrotes and every media ate talking about today
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Read between the lines: “At some point in the not too distant future, we will be taking Kharg Island.” Military operations are planned long in advance. They are not improvised, like “tonight we strike.” The invasion has already been carefully planned, for a long time. And it will happen in the near future. Just after the World Cup
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Replying to @Jditibbiroshi
🤷‍♂️
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On January 9th, we wrote that Greenland was theater. That the real target was Iran. And that oil would cross $100. Brent was trading below $70. Nobody was talking about Tehran. Five months later: the largest air campaign in Middle East history, the Strait of Hormuz closed since February 28th, Brent averaging $107 in May. And today, Trump announced the next step on Truth Social: “We will be taking Kharg Island, and other oil infrastructure points, and assume total control of their Oil and Gas Markets.” Now read what we published in The Iran Playbook, days before his announcement: “Phase 3: The ‘Limited’ Operation. Seizure of Qeshm Island. Possibly Kharg Island. Framed as a maritime security operation. ‘Protecting critical energy infrastructure.’ Never called an invasion.” Word for word. The island. The framing. The vocabulary. This is not luck. It is pattern recognition. Every American war follows the same script: a provocation, a “defensive” response, a “limited” operation that becomes permanent. Vietnam started with advisors. Iraq started with liberation. Iran is starting with an island. An occupation that cannot be defended without escalating, and cannot be abandoned without humiliation. This is the moment the world change. The socio-economic shockwaves of a permanent war in the Gulf will hit every economy on the planet: energy, food, shipping, inflation, debt. America is dragging itself into a vortex with no exit. And it is dragging everyone else down with it.
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Trump post 1: “NOTHING GETS THROUGH. STEEL WALL. Iran is doing ZERO business.” Trump post 2: “100 MILLION Barrels got through. 200 Commercial Ships passed safely.” Trump post 3: “We took 22 ships of oil from Iran last night.” If nothing gets through, how did 100 million barrels pass? And if the blockade is a steel wall, what are you seizing 22 ships from? Yesterday an Iranian drone took down a US Apache helicopter in that same Strait. If you control it, your helicopters do not end up in the sea. CPI just hit 4.2%. Trump says “I love the inflation.” This is the same war he started that pushed oil above $100 and broke every inflation forecast for 2026. Three contradictions in three posts. The blockade that lets everything through. The control that loses helicopters. The inflation he loves after causing it. X feed and propaganda are out of control. Kobeissi, Axios, no difference. Just amplifiers…
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Replying to @cryptictrader90
Ops
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Sell your watches. Its the pico top again. 2022 2026
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At the end, in a way or another $ZEC #zcash went to 370$ in one week as predicted.
$ZEC Last time ‘’they’’ came out, it was exit liquidity. Indicators are signaling exhaustion. Seeing $380–390 here shortly for ZEC.
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Replying to @rudrainfinte
No way..!

ALT The Big Short Smile GIF

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I privately warned both @binance and @Bybit_Official about $LAB and $M weeks ago. Sent them the data. The supply concentration. The manipulation structure. Everything. They kept the listing. They kept 40x leverage. They kept collecting fees. Now LAB crashes and the Insurance Fund is completely drained. What do the exchanges do? They activate Auto-Deleveraging. Force-close every profitable short. Traders who were right, in profit, with proper margin, woke up to find their positions closed without consent. The exchange doesn’t pay. The manipulator doesn’t pay. The trader who did the work and got the call right pays. There are people out there who identified the scam, positioned correctly, watched their thesis play out in real time, and still lost money. Because the exchange decided it was cheaper to close their winning trades than to cover the Insurance Fund. I have no words for what happened here. This is beyond anything I’ve seen. And @zachxbt warned these exchange many many times..
What exactly are you waiting for? One single spot sell from the team wallet holding 88% supply, breaks the $531K book. The cascade on $135M of open futures positions has nowhere to unwind. Insurance fund absorbs the first wave, ADL handles the rest. Retail pays. @binance @_RichardTeng ?
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How is possible, even their data is correct about 7.8bln circ mcap, but it shows as #202 in ranking.
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It’s actually crazy that $LAB even got @CoinMarketCap corrupted, to not show them as top #13 by circulating mcap. Instead they show #202. Why would a project want to look smaller than it is? Because a top 15 token with 90%+ supply controlled by one entity would trigger every alarm in crypto. Staying at #202 keeps the spotlight off while insiders print freely.
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Replying to @cobie @lookonchain

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Let's decode what actually happened here. Axios reported that Trump exploded at Netanyahu. Called him "fucking crazy." Said "you'd be in prison if it weren't for me." Said "everybody hates you now." The journalist is Barak Ravid again, we talked about it. Israeli. Based in Washington. Covers the Netanyahu-US relationship for Axios, and every latest deals to calm the markets. This is the same journalist who wrote the exact same type of story about Biden. There is literally a book chapter about this pattern. It is called "Fuming Biden." The same reporter. The same format. The same function. Different president. Now watch the response. Mark Levin, a close ally of both Trump and Netanyahu, did not deny the story. He demanded an FBI investigation into who leaked it. When your defense is "this should never have leaked" instead of "this never happened," you have confirmed the call happened. But here is the part that matters. Why would Levin, a friend to BOTH men, confirm the most explosive account of their relationship ever published? Because it serves both. Trump gets to look tough. Not Netanyahu's puppet. Willing to put Israel in its place. His base loves it. Netanyahu gets cover. He "paused" the Beirut strike, but not because Iran threatened him. Because his "friend" asked him to. His base loves it too. And look at what actually changed on the ground. Nothing. Israel cancelled the Beirut strike. But the ground invasion of Lebanon continues. The IDF is still miles deep. A soldier died today from a Hezbollah drone. Netanyahu's office said: "position unchanged." The performance was perfect. Trump gets the headline. Netanyahu gets the cover. The deal gets another 48 hours of "progress." Markets get a reason to breathe. And the war continues exactly as planned. This is the same playbook. Every time public opinion turns against the war, a story appears showing the US president is "furious" with Israel. It creates the illusion of restraint while changing nothing. Biden was "furious" for 14 months. The war never stopped. Trump is "furious" now. The ground invasion is expanding. The visible game is: Trump controls Netanyahu. The real game is: both men are performing for their audiences while the machine moves forward. Nothing has been signed. Nothing has stopped. The war is not winding down. It is being managed. Neither one controls the other. They walk arm in arm. Know that.
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Replying to @MarioNawfal
you did exactly the same LMAOOOO But… (This info also comes my a source close to the negotiations)
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Old Twitter had its problems. But the algorithm did not actively reward accounts for posting unverified “BREAKING” headlines that move markets and get corrected by community notes hours later. X does. The bigger the headline, the bigger the reach, the bigger the damage. Zero consequences. The algorithm is the amplifier. Miss you.
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And when they do publish original analysis, it reads a lot like work published days earlier by smaller accounts. But that is a conversation for another day.
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@MarioNawfal, May 4: “THE WAR IS OVER.” May 11: “I no longer stand with this statement.” May 26: “A DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED.” Community notes corrected it. May 28: “The deal is real.” These are the largest financial media accounts on X. They amplify every unverified headline as “BREAKING” without checking the other side. When Iran denies it hours later, no correction. No update. Just the next “deal” post next week.
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April 7, @KobeissiLetter: “A deal is expected to be closed tonight.” It was not. May 6: “The US and Iran are nearing a 14-point MoU.” They were not. May 21: “The final draft has been reached.” It had not. Community notes corrected it. May 28: “The US and Iran have reached a deal.” Hours later, Iran denied it. Again. Every post ends the same way: “We expect more details shortly.”
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ALT Penguin GIF

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Expect a sharp Q3 for markets. PCE at 3.8%, core at 3.3%, both accelerating. June CPI likely prints above 4%. Fed funds at 3.50 to 3.75 with futures pricing a hike before a cut. Earnings season is done. Q1 margins held because energy costs hadn’t fully passed through. Q2 reports land in July with three months of $95 to $116 Brent baked into input costs. Guidance revisions coming. Meanwhile, credit markets are asleep. HY spreads at the 8.5th percentile. VIX at 17. Risk Appetite at 91.5. Extreme complacency across the board while inflation prints the worst numbers in three years. S&P 500 at all time highs. The market is overdue for a correction. Q3 has everything to trigger it.
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$BTC was at 82K at the exact local top of that bounce when this post went out. The day will come when I tell you exactly when to buy the bottom.
BTC is pumping. Shorts are getting liquidated. Bulls are already calling new all time highs. Now look at this chart. Four cycles. After every SELL signal, price rallied hard enough to convince the entire market the bear was over. It never was. The bottom formed months later. .The bear market is not over. The bottom has not formed. What you are seeing is what bear markets do best: rally until nobody believes they are bear markets anymore.
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$ZEC Last time ‘’they’’ came out, it was exit liquidity. Indicators are signaling exhaustion. Seeing $380–390 here shortly for ZEC.
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Me, May 19: “Trump spent two years blaming Powell. Called him the worst Fed Chair in history.” “The next Fed Chair will be forced to raise rates. That’s the crazy part.” @KobeissiLetter, May 20: “Trump spent the last 12 months threatening to fire Powell for not cutting rates.” “The most incredible part: incoming Fed Chair HIKING rates.” @nikitabier
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We have noticed a pattern. Our analysis on Iran, the Fed, and Hormuz keeps showing up on accounts with millions of followers. Days after we publish it. Me, May 25: “This is not a coincidence. It is a pattern. And that pattern is now repeating with Iran.” @MarioNawfal, hours later: “60 years apart, 2 different presidents, 2 different wars. Same broken playbook. This isn’t a coincidence. It’s a pattern.” We let the timestamps speak for themselves. @nikitabier
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And … You know why Trump keeps obsessing over Iran’s Navy in every post? First, Iran does not have a navy. Not in any conventional sense. They closed Hormuz with mines, fast boats, and coastal missiles. No fleet. No carriers. Asymmetric warfare at its purest. And that is exactly where they won. American hegemony since 1945 is built on one principle: naval control of global trade routes. Bretton Woods, the petrodollar, the entire empire runs because the US Navy guarantees free passage everywhere. Hormuz is the first time in modern history a regional power broke that control. This is America’s biggest defeat, and Trump knows it. That is what every post about Iran’s “Navy surrendering” is trying to cover.
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Replying to @Nostre_damus

ALT The Big Short Smile GIF

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Replying to @KobeissiLetter
🤨
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Replying to @DeOnlyOneLeft
Terror regime? I don’t see Iran here, and Iran never invaded any other countries in the last 250 years. Calling it a “terror regime” is how you make war palatable to public opinion. Reality is far more complex. If the standard is “non-democratic = must be invaded,” then we should be invading a third of the countries on Earth for the same reason. Geopolitics doesn’t work in slogans…
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Powell is gone. Warsh is in. Rates are still at 3.75% and the market is pricing zero cuts. Because the problem was never the Fed chair. The problem is that you cannot run the most aggressive tariff regime in modern history, disrupt global energy flows, and then blame the central banker for inflation. The inflation is the policy. Powell was just the scapegoat.
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Was Powell the problem? Trump spent two years blaming Powell for keeping rates too high. Called him the worst Fed Chair in history. Demanded cuts. Meanwhile: 145% tariffs on China. Trade war with the EU. Energy supply chains in chaos. Oil volatility at levels not seen since 2022. Core PCE back at 3.0%. CPI above 3.3%. Zero rate cuts priced for 2026.
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ALT Joe Biden Politics GIF by The Democrats

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