Geopolitical and macro cycle analyst. Founder @NoodlesResearch. I connect the dots others miss. -The Research Terminal-
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Half the people making $100k+ are terrified of losing their corporate jobs.
The government calls stepping away "Not In Labor Force" (NILF).
We just swapped pointless Zoom meetings for 3 screens in the trenches.
That’s why I think robinhood:0xdb97b2aefd6816485a757ae49280d598a5c9c848 has the most potential on Robinhood Chain right now. It’s not some random forced mascot, it’s literally our daily reality.
$NILF
Americans are increasingly worried about their jobs.
The perceived probability among US consumers that the unemployment rate will be higher in 1-year increased +1.6 percentage points in August, to 44.4%, its highest since April 2020.
Excluding the 2020 pandemic, this marks the highest reading since the New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations began in 2013.
By comparison, this indicator peaked at 44.1% in April 2025, following uncertainty around tariffs.
By income, the perceived probability of a rise in unemployment was the highest among those earning over $100,000, at 50.3%, the 2nd-highest reading on record.
By comparison, expectations stood at 43.5% among those earning $50,000-$100,000, the 2nd-highest reading since March 2025, and 38.0% among those earning under $50,000, the highest since May.
Fear of unemployment is rising.
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Zero-cost political theater, Mario. Instead of fixing real structural crises, crumbling schools, overcrowded classrooms, and teachers among the lowest-paid in Europe, the debate gets hijacked by symbolic culture wars. And funny how you never mention that the Meloni government actually slashed public school funding while ramping up defense and weapons spending. Doesn’t fit the narrative?
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1. The ban on the burqa and niqab: regulatory redundancy
* The regulation already exists: Article 5 of the Reale Law (Law no. 152/1975) already prohibits appearing in a public place or one open to the public (such as a school) with one's face covered or disguised in a way that prevents identification, unless there is a "justified reason." In schools, visually identifying students for educational and safety reasons is already an essential requirement.
* Statistical insignificance: The use of the full-face veil among female students in Italy is a statistically marginal phenomenon. If the measure were instead extended to the hijab (the headscarf that leaves the face exposed), it would face immediate struck-down on grounds of unconstitutionality for violating Articles 19 (freedom of worship) and 34 (right to education) of the Italian Constitution.
2. The cap on foreign students: the demographic paradox
* Recycling previous regulations: A 30% cap on foreign students per classroom was already introduced in 2010 via a ministerial circular by then-Minister Mariastella Gelmini. That rule has remained largely unenforced for purely practical reasons.
* Territorial reality: In suburban neighborhoods and industrial hubs with a high immigrant presence (from Prato to the Milan metropolitan area and across Emilia), the percentage of children with a migrant background regularly exceeds 40–50%. Imposing a rigid cap without extraordinary funding would require physically relocating tens of thousands of pupils every day to other neighborhoods or municipalities, overburdening both families and transit networks.
You just need to ask to AI before write bullshit.
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😂😂😂😂😂😂 You don't know what you're talking about; do some research and you'll discover, first, that those laws have been in place since 1978, and second, that no students wear veils to school in Italy. It’s called propaganda, meanwhile, people in Italy are struggling to make ends month, even on a bank worker's salary.
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The thesis: Mainstream media is obsessing over the massive structural wave of people officially categorized as NILF (Not In Labor Force) amid the rising unemployment crisis. Since crypto moves 24/7 and you literally have to be 'unemployed' just to keep up, $NILF turns that exact macro reality into a full-scale onchain cult.
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No, Trump and his elite will never leave the throne; one way or another, Trump will get a third term as well.
Trump and JD going to get smoked in the midterms.
The Clarity act vote was a precursor to the results.
Trump has aligned himself with Crypto and they will use Crypto as the cudgle to go after him.
Trump will spend the next 2 years nuking the USD, YCC to get bonds down because there is nothing else they can do.
Risk assets go up
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This isn't an administration; it's a farce. And it’s not even funny, because it is about to shatter the entire global economy and drag the US down with it.
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So ‘Jerome Warsh’ hike interest rates…
So Jerome Powell was just the scapegoat.
On January 9th, we mapped the chain. Iran → oil → inflation.
Today the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge came in at 3.8%. Up from 2.4% in January. At this pace, June prints above 4%.
Now the second chain is playing out.
Persistent inflation → Fed trapped → liquidity compression → markets under pressure.
Trump picked Warsh because Powell wouldn’t cut fast enough. Now the market is pricing a 50% probability of a rate HIKE by year end.
Trump started a war that sent oil from $65 to $100+. That inflation made cuts impossible. His own Fed chair might have to raise them.
He built the trap. Then walked into it…
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Still relevant.
Its just funny everyone spent months blaming Pumpfun for saturating the market and killing the trenches.
Now, in full bear mode, your big new narrative is recycle launchpads. And every pitch is “the next Pumpfun” on every chain.
The thing that killed the trenches is now your bull case.
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I think recently there is a glaring disconnect between the apocalyptic calls to "slow down" and the empirical reality of software engineering and in general an overvaluation of AI skills.
Strictly speaking, frontier models are not "intelligent" until proven otherwise. They are high-density statistical compute engines executing massive matrix multiplications to interpolate known human distributions. What we have built is an unprecedented supercomputing retrieval-and-synthesis layer, not a reasoning entity.
The absence of an actual causal world model becomes undeniable the moment you move past basic boilerplate:
Failure on long-horizon planning: As repos scale in depth, context drift sets in, regression loops trigger, and latent edge-case hallucinations compound.
Zero architectural intuition: A model can optimize a localized function, but it cannot evaluate holistic system trade-offs (e.g., distributed state consistency vs. latency, memory layout vs. cache coherency).
Supercomputer scale\neq cognitive agency: Scaling compute compresses and organizes knowledge with incredible throughput, but interpolating tokens is fundamentally distinct from deterministic deduction.
Frontier models, including Claude, are elite syntax accelerators and scaffolding tools. But framing advanced pattern-matching supercomputers as autonomous minds on the brink of escaping human control leans far closer to safety theater and regulatory capture than technical reality.
Until machines demonstrate true causal deduction rather than high-probability token prediction, the human engineer remains the baseline, the architect, and the only real safeguard.
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Basically, we said the same things.
‘’Strictly speaking, frontier models are not "intelligent" until proven otherwise.’’
It’s all marketing, And perhaps they already know about something bad that is going to happen, maybe involving wars, and they’ll say, "We told you so."
nitter.net/criptopaul/status/2098…
Let's all take a moment to understand how self-serving it is for OpenAI, Anthropic and other execs of big hyperscalers to talk of slowing things down.
1. LLMs are not AI and won't be AGI. There is nothing AI to slow down.
2. Competition is coming up fast, slowing benefits incumbents.
3. IPOs need hype & puffery; "we are so awesome it could become dangerous" is hype & puffery
4. Cover for real uncontrollable slowing growth as IPOs look to be pushed out
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Additionally, never lose sight of the business model: AI companies monetize compute, and revenue scales directly with token burn. The tendency of models to fall into circular debugging loops, prompt churn, and context drift directly benefits the bottom line by forcing endless iterative requests.
More importantly, AI is strictly a leverage multiplier on existing domain competence, not a replacement for it:
- If you weren't a trader before, AI won't make you profitable. It will just automate your drawdowns at scale.
-If you weren't a developer before, you won't build a serious production app. You'll just assemble fragile boilerplate that collapses under real-world concurrency.
-If you weren't a hacker before, you won't exploit anything. You'll just regurgitate patched CVEs and stale documentation.
Zero multiplied by leverage is still zero.
Everything else you read claiming autonomous agents are replacing deep human expertise is pure engagement farming on X.
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I think recently there is a glaring disconnect between the apocalyptic calls to "slow down" and the empirical reality of software engineering and in general an overvaluation of AI skills.
Strictly speaking, frontier models are not "intelligent" until proven otherwise. They are high-density statistical compute engines executing massive matrix multiplications to interpolate known human distributions. What we have built is an unprecedented supercomputing retrieval-and-synthesis layer, not a reasoning entity.
The absence of an actual causal world model becomes undeniable the moment you move past basic boilerplate:
Failure on long-horizon planning: As repos scale in depth, context drift sets in, regression loops trigger, and latent edge-case hallucinations compound.
Zero architectural intuition: A model can optimize a localized function, but it cannot evaluate holistic system trade-offs (e.g., distributed state consistency vs. latency, memory layout vs. cache coherency).
Supercomputer scale\neq cognitive agency: Scaling compute compresses and organizes knowledge with incredible throughput, but interpolating tokens is fundamentally distinct from deterministic deduction.
Frontier models, including Claude, are elite syntax accelerators and scaffolding tools. But framing advanced pattern-matching supercomputers as autonomous minds on the brink of escaping human control leans far closer to safety theater and regulatory capture than technical reality.
Until machines demonstrate true causal deduction rather than high-probability token prediction, the human engineer remains the baseline, the architect, and the only real safeguard.
We Must Pace the Frontier: I’ve written a new essay on why the AI industry should slow down, with a three-part plan for doing so.
Anthropic is unilaterally committing to the first of these steps. We’ll provide third-party evaluators with permanent, employee-level access to our systems, so that they can verify adherence to our safety measures, report on incidents, and assess models’ alignment during training.
You can read the full post here: darioamodei.com/post/we-must…
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The transition from jobless to "full-time on-chain liquidity manager" is the purest degen lifestyle.
Proudly Not In Labor Force.
$NILF
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