Lawyer - Analyst - Position Trader - Founder Caesar Capital ™️ @CC__Capital - Founder Caesar’s Palace Discord - Click Below for VIP Group, Website & YT👇🏼 #BTC
Digital Rome
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👑Crypto Caesar👑™️ retweeted
Now we move to Plan B. @SECPaulSAtkins and @ChairmanSelig writing Clarity through rulemaking.
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Many other indicators went significantly lower than in previous cycles. No single metric perfectly identifies a market bottom.
Just because one indicator hasn’t reached the exact level seen in previous bear markets doesn’t mean the bottom isn’t in. Markets evolve, liquidity changes and each cycle has its own characteristics.
Looking for every indicator to perfectly replicate previous cycles is how you end up recognising the bottom only after the market has already left it behind.
This bear market was truly different.
The MVRV-Z score never went negative.
We got close on June 30th with a reading of 0.18
But we never hit a negative score like all the other bear markets.
This time is different or do we still need a full negative MVRV Z-Score reset?
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Technically cycles are measured from low to low. As one cycle dies another is reborn. You must also give a cycle a fairly wide birth for the low to form (a financial quarter).
So actually the 4 year cycle still looks perfectly intact.
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👑Crypto Caesar👑™️ retweeted
2W >=25% candles that actually led to lower lows
All well within the distribution phase after many digit % runs
Since we are talking probabilities and models etc, might as well be fair and say that historic data suggests this is a pump of the bottom leaving everyone sidelined
It's end of August. You expected a bottom in October, lower. The odds are against you based on historic data, and whilst nothing is guaranteed it seems like grasping for straws.
Calling the bottom doesn't matter, but adapting to the possibility that your ideas may be invalidated does. The odds drastically changed.
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👑Crypto Caesar👑™️ retweeted
July CPI printed 3.4%. Oman finished the week above Brent. Those are competing inflation stories that give the Fed a problem.
Two clocks this week then: soft print, hard barrel.
wosscapital.substack.com/p/3…
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Still baffles me Woss has 1k followers.
Free alpha 👇🏼
The bond market just doubled its bet that the Fed is behind the curve
The 2-year yield now sits ~59 bps above the fed funds ceiling (nearly double late June levels) and CME FedWatch has September hike odds at ~80%, up from 53% a week ago. Oil is back toward $100 on renewed Hormuz pressure. And Big Tech’s early Q2 prints reopened the AI-capex questions we flagged in #29. Nasdaq took the hit while non-US and EM held up.
Bullish calls feel premature here, as both policy and geopolitical tails widened in the same week.
Dìonglic modelled no changes. the real-yield channel continues to validate the zero gold/Bitcoin stance and the 40% cash optionality.
Full weekly update (Focus Area on the front-end gap, distribution shift, and what Thursday’s FOMC + PCE could do to it) is live: wosscapital.substack.com/p/3…
Enjoy and as always, share if useful.
—WoSS
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It is likely Ethereum has bottomed.
It is of note that Ethereum bottomed before Bitcoin in the previous cycle.
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Simple.
The beginning of a new cycle starts at a macro low of the previous cycle. Whilst one cycle completes a new one is born. Thus far Bitcoin has followed a 4 year cycle (which is measured from low to low). That low is due to form in early October.
I have done many videos and written many articles about it. You are free to read and watch them.
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Bitcoin has been in a confirmed downtrend for 9 months and dudes are calling this a mid-cycle consolidation.
FFS just swallow it and accept this was a bear market. I mean it’s almost over too. Fucking hilarious.
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I couldn’t agree more with this statement 👇🏼
The England football team lost for the same reason the country is losing: the people in charge fear taking a risk and try to hold on to what they have instead of being ambitious about the future.
This attitude permeates everything and it needs to change.
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