solana:HgcxVs6kJhPAaGqnPNGaa7zYgNT49hJrLufiqcNMuYZT (Update)
CA: HgcxVs6kJhPAaGqnPNGaa7zYgNT49hJrLufiqcNMuYZT
Disclosure: I have added to my position since the previous post.
The Wave 2 decline continued to the mid-point of the 1H Fair Value Gap highlighted green, between the 78.6% and 85.4% retracement levels of Wave 1, where it looks to have found support. If the Wave 2 decline continues, I would look to find support at the Daily S1, followed by the upper half of the 1H Demand Structure highlighted red.
For the time being, we have printed 1H bullish divergence at the low, with a spike of volume. We have also just broken through a descending resistance line with good volume.
We are back inside the 1H Demand Structure highlighted blue, which we need to break back out of to signal that we have likely bottomed.
Doing so would send us back above the Daily Pivot and get us close to the Point of Control.
Getting through the Point of Control and then the Weekly Pivot, and finally through the Wave b high would be highly constructive and would make it much more likely than not that the bottom is in.
If the current count is correct, Wave 3 should target a minimum of $27.1m, before a Wave 4 pullback to around $17.7m and then a Wave 5 push upto around $32.9m.
Breaking out above Wave b at $9.0m will add confidence to the count.
solana:HgcxVs6kJhPAaGqnPNGaa7zYgNT49hJrLufiqcNMuYZT
CA: HgcxVs6kJhPAaGqnPNGaa7zYgNT49hJrLufiqcNMuYZT
Disclosure: I recently acquired a large position based on the below analysis.
Wave 1 peaked at $15.3m, and I believe we have finished Wave 2 at $3.7m.
We found support at around the 70.5% retracement level of Wave 1, which was also around the mid-point of the 1H Demand Structure highlighted blue, as well as marginally sweeping the 1H Demand Wick highlighted red.
We had a clear spike of volume at the Wave c low, relative to the surrounding candles, which was followed by a bullish engulfing candle signaling that this was likely the low. It would have been better had we also had bullish divergence off the lows on a higher (1H+) timeframe, but given how new the asset is this did not have a chance to materialise - this was, however, present on the 30m and below timeframes.
We have since broken through a descending resistance line and the Point of Control / High Volume node.
We are trying to get through the Daily and Weekly Pivot confluence area at time of writing, after which we may find some further resistance at the second descending resistance line (off of the Wave 1 and Wave b highs), which is also around the Daily R1. I do not expect much of a pullback at this time, however, as we have already re-tested the first descending resistance line and have successfully held it as support - so think it is more likely we just continue on from here.
If the current count is correct, Wave 3 should target a minimum of $28.3m, before a Wave 4 pullback to around $18.9m and then a Wave 5 push upto around $34.1m.
Breaking out above Wave b at $14.0m will add confidence to the count.