Professor @Georgetown's @McCourtSchool of Public Policy. Focus on political representation & elections. Co-Author: Dynamic Democracy, PlanScore, & TrueViews.
Washington, DC
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
The first release of my R package `fourthirtyfive` makes congressional district maps (2005-27, incl. those for next week's election) easily downloadable and mergeable, with hex/dotmaps, real shapefiles, descriptive names, and interactive overlays with #mapbox:
shirokuriwaki.com/fourthirty…
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NEW: My midterms cheat sheet features 670+ races—up and down the ballot, & why they matter.
Now it's in PDF, printable form!
Save it, print it, give it to your kids to color the Senate map, & use it your worksheet on election night.
Find it here: boltsmag.org/whats-on-the-ba…
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
My general advice for using AI for any purpose is to ask yourself: "how do I make what I am doing even more ambitious?"
You do this until you either hit a wall and then you know the shape of the frontier (useful!) or you find out that the AI can do more than you think (common!)
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Generic ballot polls currently imply a gain in the Democrats' 2-party vote share (from the prior election) slightly above the post-Watergate election & not seen since 1948 (& comparable to 1966 & 1994 for Republicans, but not 2010)
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
The volume of pro-Republican ads in Senate races declined in the first full week of October, while pro-Democratic ads continued to climb. GOP ads still slightly outnumbered Dem ones.
Dem candidates & GOP outside groups fuel spending on broadcast TV.
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Useful for students interested in the '26 midterm elections -- nationalized senate voting is historically recent:
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If the NYT/Siena poll is correct and the generic ballot ends up D+11, this would be the largest midterm victory (for either party) since the Watergate era. It also implies that Democrats would probably win over 250 seats.
nytimes.com/2026/10/21/upsho…
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Here's a map of what 250+ Democratic seats would likely look like from PlanScore:
planscore.org/#!predict12D-u…
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Looking forward to this discussion about the midterms later this morning.
How will mid-decade redistricting and new congressional maps shape the 2026 midterms? On Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET, Kathryn Dunn Tenpas, William Galston, Erin Covey, and Christopher Warshaw discuss what's at stake for Congress and the presidency. brook.gs/4s8SHaM
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Deadline is tomorrow!
We're hiring in Comparative Politics here at GW (@GWtweets)! Come join our fantastic department, and plug your research directly into DC’s policy community
Work on all regions welcome
I'm on the committee and happy to answer any questions
gwu.jobs/postings/128521
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Agree. We have to raise our aspirations.
I find that AI assisted science has deeply increased my joy and curiosity, and rather than using this new ability to pump out slop I aspire to publish much less, of a much higher quality. Maybe others will feel the same. 🤷♂️
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
it’s a cliche exercise, but imagine if you read about another country where the head of state was looking to strip citizenship of a prominent critic from ethnic and religious minority. you wouldn’t have to think on whether it was fascism.
WSJ reports that the Trump administration is deploying federal agencies in an effort to denaturalize and deport Representative Ilhan Omar: wsj.com/politics/policy/ilha…
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Republican media consultants need to come back down to earth and read their Sides, Vavreck, and Warshaw (2022)
"One factor: Republicans’ advantage looks bigger in dollars than in actual airtime, thanks in part to the timing of their purchases. In Senate battlegrounds, the GOP spent 26 percent more than Democrats did to secure just 7 percent more broadcast ads, according to AdImpact."
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
On the topic of books I was fortunate enough to blurb, here's my two cents on Justin de Benedictis-Kesnner's (@jdbk) comprehensive tour de force, "The Fog of Accountability: How Institutions Keep Voters from Holding Their Local Governments Accountable."
On the theme of Canadian elections, I'm delighted to have been able to give a blurb for Eric Merkley's (@EricMerkley) awesome new book "Polarization, Eh?".
You can't understand polarization on either side of the border without this book.
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Generic ballot moving against the president's party as the election approaches is one of the predictable patterns in American politics.
See this classic paper: sites.temple.edu/corparchive…
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Good paper-writing tips from Kosuke Imai imai.fas.harvard.edu/teachin…
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Looking for subnational public opinion data? 🗺️
The U.S. State Collection in Roper iPoll offers question-level polling constrained to specific states - ideal for comparative state politics and policy impact studies.
ALT State-level search from Roper iPoll
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Chris Warshaw retweeted
Across 89 democracies since WWII, we find that parties of the executive lose 3.5 points in legislative vote share in the next election. The global cost of ruling is not dependent on type of government, concurrence, or prior share. But it grows with time since the last election.
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New paper with @johnmmurph just conditionally accepted at @apsrjournal:
Can people guess how majorities of each party in Congress voted on bills? Mostly yes.
Can they guess how their own representatives voted on bills, above what is accounted for by party? Mostly no. 🧵
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