📈 FT Independent Trader & Investor | Quantitative Methods | Founder of Algo Succession concepts
The Moon
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Stats from this post:
Charts Posted = 63
Largest Gain = 206% $COIN
Smallest Gain = 8% $XLV
Average Gain = 49.53%
Median Gain = 42%
% of Charts 🟢 = 100%
% of Charts 🔴 = 0%
% Gains Totaling 63 charts = 3,121%
My time is valuable. Chart requests I reserve for those in Discord.
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Market: “I’m gonna round-trip this move.”
Also the market:
“I’m gonna round trip the last round-tripped move, and then round-trip that one.”
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Just think, we’re just one 78m -1%+ daily candle away from a sharp uptick in FinX drama and discord promotions.
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The summer cycle was so much easier. 1 cycle, 1 target, arrived in 9 trading days, add to the portfolio, sit and wait. 38 trading days later, new ATH.
The fall is driving day traders insane. Triggered 5 cycles, completed 2, invalidated 2, and 1 currently active.
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Update:
1. We’ve completed a 2.36% cycle, and a 3.82% cycle (see post in comments).
2. Now we have a 5% correction to finish us out for the year
3. This meets our 10-11% in corrections discussed in the post below.
4. This will begin the “denial rally” into the new year
We’ve got about 10-11% in corrections left for this year for $SPY . Either one big correction, or two 5-6% corrections.
We don’t have quantitative exhaustion yet, so most likely we will end up going on a nice “denial rally” towards 776-826 EOY.
By then, everyone who’s bearish will transition from their “denial” stage of grief, towards acceptance. And at that point, bears will be bullish again.
My thesis is it’ll take 2 months (Sep 1) to get the quantitative data ready for quantitative exhaustion, leading to 10-11% in corrections heading into November. Once quantitative exhaustion is triggered, it takes about a month to complete the correction, and another month to recover at new ATH’s.
Until then, market will likely grind higher July and August. Monthly quantitative data will be ripe for correction conditions, and then we let it happen.
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RT @daggercapital: Final Update (see image)
Status:
Cycle 1 ✅
Cycle 2 ✅
Cycle 3 - in progress
* 5 cycles have triggered. 2 have completed…
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The final cycle predicted bottom arrival week will have 8+ algo-successions, and/or a weekly range of 1.2% or higher, and volume spiking 20-30% higher (minimum).
This week is not that week. Just like last week was not that week.
I anticipate an incremental increase in these categories beginning this week and next week, working towards the apex in the dataset, which will give us the green light to go long at a precise time this fall.
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It was not the bottom you are looking for.
Historical ave # algo successions (A.S.)/trading day = 1
Historical ave daily range = 0.50% - 0.7%
Predicted Bottom week salient characteristics = 2-3x average A.S.(10+ weekly) , 1.0% - 1.5% average weekly range
Current Week
5 A.S.
Weekly Range = 0.53%
This is not PB week…
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The only hesitation I see right now are the hi beta ratios to the S&P500, which does pose a problem for the market to head lower today.
The strongest trend days require the following Ratios:
XLK 2.00-2.50 (currently 1.42)
SMH 3.00-3.50 (currently 1.62)
DRAM 4.00-4.25 (currently 3.42)
All hi beta is underperforming the strongest trend day parameters. This will limit our downside (today).
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Efficiency and Momentum are maxed out for trend conditions. This is the strongest you can have (highlighted), and you simply don't counter-trend trade this under these conditions.
Also, since it's passed 1pm, reversal risk diminishes for the 0.618% reversal.
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fyi, this lunchtime reversal has a time window. The trigger and arrival must complete by 1pm EST...we are running out of time, which means they can keep us pinned down the rest of the afternoon.
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