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“To preserve [the people’s] independence, we must not let our rulers load us with perpetual debt” Thomas Jefferson
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
JUST IN: A prime 270k sq ft office building in Downtown Seattle sold for $12.5 million - a shocking $46 per sq ft
The price represents an ~87% decline from it's $97M value in 2019
Absolute destruction happening in Seattle right now...
But this isn’t just Seattle - a massive office/CRE repricing is still happening across the country
Stay tuned and follow for more major real estate deals and updates like this
JUST IN: Seattle named the 4th "greatest city in the world" for 2026, trailing only New York, London, & Paris.
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Iran's Araqchi says now up to US to accept 7-day plan reuters.com/world/middle-eas…
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Nope. It's still true.
Where is your domestic robot?
Where is your Level-5 self-driving car?
Where is your robot car that can learn to drive in a few hours of practice like any 17 year old?
Where is your AI system that can understand the real world and quickly learn new skills like a house cat?
There is no question that AI will eventually become as intelligent as humans in all domains.
*** BUT ***
1. We're still far from that, even if AI and computer technology surpasses humans in an ever-increasing number of tasks.
2. It won't be based on LLMs, although LLMs will have a role to play (e.g. as a text interface).
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Fascinating article about Navier-Stokes solution and what mathematicians have learned … “so far humanity has learned very little from the solution. Although they believe the proof to be technically correct, the dense, 166-page manuscript drafted by AI is proving to be a difficult read. "So far it's been very difficult to really extract any human understanding from this new AI proof," said James Maynard, a mathematician at the University of Oxford. The paper is not written for humans," said Javier Gómez-Serrano, a mathematician at Brown University who uses AI in his own research. He said he believes the proof could help advance the field after "some serious re-writing," but "as of today, the paper doesn't teach us much."”
npr.org/2026/09/22/nx-s1-596…
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They’re called hyperscalers because their projections assume hyperinflation.
Me+@econJaredB are out w/ a new piece examining how much revenue is needed to justify hyperscaler AI capex. We estimate that incremental AI revenue is currently b/n $86-$188.1B for the hyperscalers, but they need $13.1-$18.7 *trillion* over the next decade for that to pencil out.
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
President Trump said Friday he had discussed the Iran war with visiting Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, following allegations Beijing has been supporting Tehran.
"We did, we did," Trump said when asked if they had talked about Iran, as he showed Xi around the National Archives in Washington on the last day of the Chinese leader's state visit.
Asked if he thought there would be progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Trump replied, "I think we're going to do great." cbsnews.com/live-updates/ira…
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“Partisan Fed” - vote was unanimous
“Market is worried” - VIX is at 15
“Hiking unwisely” - credit spreads near all time tights
Kevin Hassett questions why the Fed is raising rates, says it is due to an “unusually partisan Fed” and says the “market is worried, too,” about a Fed that is going to be “hiking unwisely”:
“When I'm thinking about what future inflation is, then I look at the last three months of core.... When you annualize it, you know what the number is? 2%.... Right now I think that markets believe in future Fed credibility, but I think the argument that I would make if I were a governor is that if core is 2%, then why are we hiking?”
“The other thing about the Fed, and you know how long I've been close friends with Kevin Warsh…, he's managing an unusually partisan Fed. That is a hard thing to do, but it can start with [Michael] Barr and Jay [Powell] not resigning. If you go back to 1913, when chairmen, when their term is up, they leave. The same has been true for vice chairs… So why are they sticking around if not to worry about what the future Fed is going to do?”
“Geez, it seems like right now the data are saying we are heading in this forward direction and the Fed goes in the other direction, I'm worried about why they did that. I think the market is worried too because if you look today, then a lot of the people who weren't appointed by President Trump are giving speeches over the last couple of days saying we need a lot more hikes. And if they are going to be in control for two or three years, so if the short-term rate goes to 6% because they are hiking unwisely and then they keep it there for two or three years, the two-year rate, because of arbitrage conditions, it's going to be that. And so I think there is still some work to do to restore Fed independence. And I know that that is something that is high on the priority list for Kevin.”
Source: Financial Markets Quality Conference at Georgetown's Psaros Center on 9/23: c-span.org/program/public-af…
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Iran-US Talks Enter Technical Stage, Al-Jazeera Journalist Reports – CBS
cbsnews.com/live-updates/ira…
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1yr bill yields ~4.5% which is risk free opportunity cost. Most of this is cash yield/carry cost not convexity
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This is an IQ test
Will 5.0% be the ceiling for the nominal Treasury yield? Maybe not, but for bond investors the risk-reward math has gotten considerably better. The 5% yield provides such a good cushion that if the 10-year yield were to fall 100 bps, an investor would make 11.9%, while only losing 1.9% if the yield were to rise to 6%.
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
2/6/25 😂
“Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business on Wednesday that while President Donald Trump wants lower interest rates, he will not ask the Federal Reserve to cut rates, and that he and the president were intently focused on the 10-year Treasury yield. He added that lower energy prices will help contain price pressures, while spending cuts will improve the fiscal outlook.”
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Bessent: "I called it the three I's — immigration, interest rates, and inflation — that were killing American people. Close the border — promise kept. Interest rates are down, and the 10-year bond, again the best year since 2020, and inflation led by energy prices is going to roll next year."
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Sid Prabhu retweeted
Contrary to popular belief, Iran does have incentive for a deal before midterms.
The incentive is that they could get a much better deal, better terms, if it happens before.
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