Alright now that the entire chain decided to take a dump + everyone rotating to solana - we've had a sell off across assets on the chain, people chasing other stuff w no fundamentals, etc. giving a setup for opportunities that are undervalued and are selling off irrationally
Orbio is the best small cap asymm opp I see on RH chain for a number of reasons.
For context:
Inference Capital Markets is IMO a huge undertapped growing theme both in crypto and trad. OpenRouter got acquired by Stripe for 7b. Jevons Paradox of Chinese AI models and vid gen all point at growth rates far beyond anyone has forecasted y/y. The fact is, as AI models become cheaper, demand just keeps increasing.
Its easier to start w the risks
1/ Why ORBIO and not (other coin)
- Yes, inference markets have been tried before. Surplus is a good product. But basically, the problem w all tokens lie in one or two things - 1) Token problem, 2) Founder problem.
Surplus lies in camp 1. The token is some random BNKR token whom the dev didn't launch. No value accrual there.
The Claude ripoffs are problem 2) - in an era where everything can be vibe coded, reputation matters more than everything else. The ORBIO dev is actually reputable in the space; can't say the same for the other ripoffs
2. Bear Market?
This is an inevitable. Looking at today's PA, I will be honest and say that it is not looking good lol. The market is too correlated w macro atm - US10Y continues to rise, Iran war sheanenigans.
Again, I said this in my subs - if crypto does a 2 week bull market and goes back to bear market, then, even by crypto standards, that's really sad.
Now on to the bull case
(+) New thematic vertical in crypto in a old and beat down narrative (crypto x ai) - many doubters, climb the wall of worry
(+) Dev is absolutely cracked, ex NFT perp team & has been pushing out updates everyday. In a era where everything can be claude and vibe coded, the reputation stands out
(+) Genuinely polished product and all around extremely smooth and legitimate - compared to all the vibecoded scams around
(+) Product wise - growth inflection, high speed and ship fast. In the past week, he's already making an Orbio builders - people who want to build on top of Orbio. And as shown in the post below, inflection demand
As we all know, building the underlying infra demands the highest multiple - HYPE with HIP, L1s as the chain ; Orbio as the underlying inference payout machine
(+) Token value accrual - right now it's hold ORBIO get inference credits ; but honestly it's a pretty genius flywheel bc instead of giving cash (dividends + reg problem), giving inference actually incentivises people to hold (similar to VVV / DIEM) + enable selling brings liquidity to the marketplace
that being said, market is pretty shit show right now. so, nfa.