discretionary investor | sub for investment analysis research @defillama | prev. @defiancecapital @artemis not financial advice

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🥺 These are very kind words from one of the most underrated, sharpest trader I know on here Since I've been getting questions, this is what I wrote re: my subscription today: 1. I have written in public for 5+ years and have never scammed, or agreed to tweet about a stock / token for $$ 2. I plan to keep it that way. Lots of people look down on X subscriptions because scammers use it - it has a bad rep. But to me, subs are a way to filter conversations, and a place for me to comfortably share my market views. I value authenticity, and want to always be authentic especially to my paid audience. 3. As I grew bigger, it became harder for me to publicly share positions - I still do it, but knowing I'll be scrutinized for every thing is tiring. Paying filters for people who actually want to be here - you also get a community of like-minded investors + you can ask me questions directly, because there's fewer people - normally I have notifications turned off because there's too much spam 4. Substack will always be free. And the reason why I switched to X was that the platform has to match the cadence. Substack is good for long-form, higher time-frame thesis, one article a week kind of style. But it's bad for my trading style, especially when I want to "ape first, research later" 5. Lastly, I always make sure to charge on the lower end while delivering more than expected. I chose an amount that is less than the market - (Most Substack influencers charge $60 - $100/m, Kevin Xu does $250/m, etc.) and I believe that paying forces me to post more actionable insights. Writing in public for so long, you realise that most people consume quietly, and there's a small minority of loud critics, so it became more difficult to be incentivised to post quality insights. By using subscriptions, I find that I'm able to comfortably share what I want to share, e.g position updates, trades, and more intimate ideas, versus the broader X where it's better to vaguepost
Replying to @wronguser000
cc @zeroxkyle for the $RKLB share bought into his subscription, first time using the feature, because i been following him for a while now and i know he's a reliable trader didnt miss, mans very humble and down to earth, best qualities of a trader, would def recommend the sub
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at that part of my investing growth where i'm realizing that over-rotating is actually bad for P&L generation trying to refine the high conviction bet style to its maximum potential.
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Kyle retweeted
$USDE at nearly $17 now. Still mostly a result of $ENA ripping rather than mNAV catching up.
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happy ATHs to USDE holders
Cat is out of the bag. USDE on lighter / qfex trading +20% up during the weekend after an already +20% over the week This has been the bet i've been talking about to subscribers. I believe that there is room for a DAT round 2 but for good DATs. Please see chart below - PURR is a very good example of the zeroxkyle™️ chart I did a factorial breakdown of good DATs vs bad DATs and I think there will be alpha in DAT selection. Obviously now most DATS are repricing because of their underlying token going up - beta widening effect. But again, see the chart below of a really good DAT - PURR led the way amidst uncertainty and was the first to breach ATHs - following my chart of intrinsic value perfectly. First wave -> second wave. Most DATs pumped to insane prices last year, and I doubt they will reach there again. Interestingly though, the good DATs all launched post DAT season last year - so meaning that they didn't actually even experience "the first wave" ; they launched in a bear market environment where DATs were over and money was convinced it was over, and hence probably has a low ownership / holder base. Factorial breakdown is as such of what makes a good DAT: 1. The token is rising and earns real cash flow. This is the biggest driver. Every winner's token rallied, and no management team beat a falling token. 2. No debt. This decides who survives. Debt forced ETHZilla and Strategy to sell their tokens. 3. A sponsor aligned with the protocol. PURR is Paradigm-backed. 4. Capital discipline: issue shares only above NAV, and buy back below it. This protects per-share value but doesn't create upside on its own; 5. Being the biggest vehicle for its token. This picks the winner among DATs on the same token (PURR beat HYPD) 6. On-chain activity on top, like validators and staking. It's only a bonus: you can do alot of this and still lag Lastly, and most importantly, whether they are aligned and have good mgmt team. I believe DATs round 2 no longer should focus on increasing XXX per share for protocols - because you are not acquiring commodities. I believe increasing X per share really only works for BTC and maybe L1s, but mainly BTC, because you want to "own more of BTC" and the thesis of BTC is akin to gold, so you really just want to own more gold. Whereas for altcoins, it's very different, and we are slowly moving to a world where alts are akin to equity-like structures ; and so while increasing XX per share may be ONE of the goals of the DAT, it is not solely the main goal - instead the DAT has a lot of other opps to engage especially with tradfi counterparties and that's the one vertical we've seen success in for PURR - @standuquesne's fund buying PURR, etc. Hence there's a lot of other biz outcomes that can do well besides the whole mNAV play - and so that's what I think will drive DATs round 2 and alpha generation in the DAT scene. The two most obvious DATs that are doing this right now to me are just PURR and hence, USDE. Smart money is also in this - as per @HighCoinviction tweet: nitter.net/HighCoinviction/status… "There is no longer a locked token discount for USDE. Path to 1.0x mNAV is inevitable, which would imply double to triple from here. If $ENA price goes up we are going much higher."
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This has been in my mind all day so braindumping it - The rise of the Asian striver marks the end of the entrepreneurship subculture. Necessary reading is: meaningness.com/geeks-mops-s… The core premise here is the generalization (stereotype, but very much true) that Asians are not creative in general and are , more importantly, the closest you can get to specced out Pokemon in reality. As a Singaporean (so I can speak from deep experience) the Asian is meant to be specced out in whatever vertical - first engineers in the semicon boom in 1990s, then doctors and lawyers in the birth of corporate countries in 2000s. Even in the more creative arts, they are made to achieve the best of their potential - ie. forced to take violin lessons 4h/day from the age of 6 All this means the generic asian is actually a sociopath bred for success in the vertical. Only able to measure their worth quantitatively, Asians turn toward accolades, awards, prestige - and in a late stage capitalistic society, high status has been distilled down to a single number: networth. Now the engineers, doctors and lawyers are actually net good for society though - they allow for progress and improvements in quality of lived all across the world. So for most of it, actually its not that bad and pretty good Now enter the entrepreneur subculture. This was a subculture that didn't exist sub-2000s, and was very much a budding nerdfest in 2000s - go watch videos of DoorDash's Ycom, or any company before 2010. Entrepreneurship was very much focused on "making the world a better place" through "innovation and creativity" (two things Asians are *generally* bad at) And it was never about the money. Obviously, due to numerous factors - late stage capitalism + the asymmetric opp presented in investing in early stage companies + the man 10,000x'es, this became a culture that were perverted by sociopaths (finance geeks). But thats not bad in itself because thats the deal entrepreneurs have to make - to give their company for funding; it is just business But what we now see, however, is the end state where the original sociopaths (financiers) are now being EXTRACTED by the specced out Asian who is made to play the game by the book to its game-theoretically optimal endstate! See: YCombinators startups by Asians in 2026. I have seen at least 5 "AI Agent" startups, 2 "Quant Finance AI" startups and many more. Asians are incredible at just taking the current process and speccing the fuck out of it. Think I'm being too racist and broad? That's literally what the Chinese market is known for. China doesn't innovate, they just better the process, bring costs lower than anyone u can compete with. Go visit their manufacturing processes and factories and you'll know what I mean. Haven't you seen the countless Chinese ads on IG showing their precision engineering, LCD lights, and many others? Or even the one about prestigious high end brands (Gucci, Louis Vuitton, etc.) and the factories where they're made. So all this is to say, which ever space Asians enter is almost always in its end state. The caveat is the space they enter always needs to have some sort of north star / accolade to chase - be it number, status, prestige, etc. But obviously this is not a bad thing because you ARE getting specced out Pokemon for whatever vertical. The downside is just you get very little original creativity whatsoever, hence the emergence of 20 agentic SaaS companies Such is life! CC: @hoeflator to validate, or maybe provide counter points
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Kyle retweeted
base:0xacfe6019ed1a7dc6f7b508c02d1b04ec88cc21bf to $100 $ORBIO to $1
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think this is the hardest pve environment we are gonna get - will have lots of macro shakeouts, whether oil, gold, yields, AI doomerism, global economy, etc. send it
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Dario not being here really means Anthropic lost the mandate of God GG.
Here's who made the cut for tonight's big state dinner at the White House. In the old days, when a noble House was suddenly missing from a royal function, it was a deliberate, public signal from the King that they had lost his protection. Usually your last chance to flee.
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I posted this for subs a free days ago but sharing the full piece because i think it's important: Hi I recorded a stream of thoughts that came to me that I think is really important to understand if you're trading on-chain right now: I think what we're seeing on-chain is very simply the downstream effect of AI-enabled software. AI is really, really good for very small, niche projects that are fast to build and fast to ship. But at the enterprise level, it's actually pretty hard to integrate across a whole company. So we have this very weird, diametric effect: you're not seeing productivity gains from AI at the highest level, among the largest corporations, but you are seeing gains at the lowest level, among entrepreneurs building ship-fast, brick-by-brick things. This essentially leads to, again, a lot more K-shaped outcomes. Obviously, the bull case is that if these large corporations can figure out how AI works and raise their productivity, number go up, right? But in the context of on-chain, I think on-chain is cooked. Permanently cooked. It's more K-shaped than ever before. We now have a lot of good-looking projects, so on-chain is basically a huge lemon market problem right now. All of these projects look good on the surface but could be run by scammers, and it's really, really difficult to tell. Last time, you could at least say, "Oh, they had a good website. They put effort into this." Now effort is free. That's why I think on-chain isn't doing well: there's just so much slop software that looks good on the surface, and you don't really know whether it's actually good. It's so hard to break out of the market cap range that defines whether something is good on-chain. That's why I actually think it's better to put all your eggs in a single basket, but that basket has to be defined by parameters that go beyond software. As we've seen with Orbio, it's about the team: how well they deliver and who they are. It's 100% the team, right? Founder quality. That's one, because ideas are cheap. We've seen about 20 different inference markets pop up after Orbio hit all-time highs, and that's to be expected. Really, we're going to see 200 more, because it's so cheap. You just throw Orbio's website into an AI, say "replicate this for me," and it builds itself. Two, that's why I actually think alts are so much easier than on-chain. To reach a certain market cap, a project must already have proved itself in some way. So it's much easier to dig through 100 alts above a billion market cap and figure out which are good and which are bad, versus digging through 10,000 sub-$10 million coins, where a new "good idea" comes up literally every hour. I think this concept is really, really important to understand if you're trading on-chain.
Thanks for playing. $BLISS was a full on rug like i said Hope I saved some of your money today
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sorry guys i topped it at least we can enjoy the yacht party though
at risk of topping the markets, i'm elated to announce @QFEX and I are hosting a yacht party for all traders, founders and friends!! let's fucking go. luma.com/cnlqhmkm
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Kyle retweeted
the vibe im getting is the main revenue meta coins are underowned because people are gambling on garbage instead lol
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everyone knows that a K shaped economy is coming no one wants to admit that they are actually in the bottom of the K, not the top "get-rich-quick" scammers pretend they are incredibly wealthy, and then make their actual money simply by selling information on how to get wealthy to desperate people.
People forget that Orangie made a name for himself by cheating in a game called Dookey Dash. Turned that attention into trading platform referrals and went on to release the telegram bot Nova. Which has been associated with multiple big wallet drains. He's never made money making legitimate trades without insider info. You should never take any sort of trading advice from him. The people with the biggest voices in crypto, also happen to be the biggest scammers.
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