i think this is the stagflation playbook again. hiking into weak growth and every yield out to 5y went up... curve is pricing more hikes, not less. oct is a hike
the fed hiked to 3.75-4% on 16 sep and the 2-year still closed friday at 4.81%, 81bp over the top of the new range.
-- 3-month bill 4.24%
-- 1y 4.50%
-- 2y was 4.74% on hike day, so it went up after the hike, not down
a 2y that far above the range has two or three more hikes in it, and the next meeting is 28 oct, a week before the midterms. i think warsh hikes anyway, because skipping with the curve already there would read as the fed flinching at the election, and that costs him more than one more quarter point.
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Per CNBC, 22V Research found that a financial crisis occurred during all 16 rapid spikes in the 10-year yield since 1970.
This is exactly what I’ve been saying for two years. Rates at 4.5% or higher are not good for the economy.
Never have been.
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Median sales price of new U.S. houses sold in August was $393,700 — an increase of $1,500 (or 0.4%) from July, but a decrease of $24,200 (or 5.8%) from August 2025 bit.ly/46Dj3YO
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CCC spreads blowing out while SPX sits near highs. credit leads equities, stocks always catch down. It's not gonna end well
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every cleantech pitch dies at this exact stage. ADFD hit the same wall with unbankable water projects and solved it by making them investable. materials need the same bridge
The next generation of sustainable materials is emerging faster than ever — bio-based composites, reclaimed industrial byproducts, waste-stream derivatives. AI-driven discovery is accelerating the identification of these materials at a pace that would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
But identification isn't impact. A promising sustainable material sitting in a lab doesn't reduce anyone's carbon footprint.
The critical missing step? Turning that material into a real, manufacturable product with a clear environmental profile.
That's exactly what the Material-to-Product Engine does.
The workflow:
🔍 Upload a photo or scan of a physical material — a reclaimed textile, a bio-composite sample, a recycled aggregate
⚙️ 22 AI specialist agents analyse it simultaneously. The Sustainability Analyst evaluates environmental impact and circular economy alignment. The Material Analyst characterises properties. The Chemical Engineer assesses processing requirements. The Cost and Procurement agent maps viable supply chains. Industrial Designer and CAD/CAM agents generate product concepts with STEP/STL files and engineering drawings.
📦 Output: not a sustainability report — actual product designs, manufacturing plans, and engineering documentation ready for development
We've designed 42+ products from real scanned materials through this process.
The circular economy doesn't advance on material breakthroughs alone. It advances when those materials become products people can actually make, use, and recover. The Engine is that bridge — evidence-based, measurable, and built to move sustainable materials from promise to production.
#CircularEconomy #SustainableMaterials #GreenManufacturing
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Phantom Economics retweeted
U.S. MORTGAGE RATES HAVE NEARLY TRIPLED IN 5 YEARS
2021: 2.65%.
Today: 7.03%.
Since the Iran war started alone rates have jumped 150 basis points.
And home prices have not come down.
Buyers are getting hit from both sides simultaneously.
Expensive homes. Expensive borrowing. At the same time.
Fewer people qualify for loans.
Refinancing becomes impossible.
Monthly payments become unaffordable.
Add a weakening economy on top of that and borrowers start missing payments.
Missing payments become defaults.
Defaults become a housing crisis.
The 2008 playbook started with an affordability problem too.
Nobody called it a crisis until it was too late.
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Stock market hooked on GenAI, upper-income consumers hooked on the stock market. It's not gonna end well
Quote of the week by @pboockvar
“We have a U.S. economy that is mainly dependent on this CapEx orgy and upper income consumers that are highly reliant on a stock market that is hugely hooked on GenAI and this CapEx spend.”
Ain’t circularly codependency grand?
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Phantom Economics retweeted
As we discussed, Joe, earlier this month on Odd Lots, it’s getting increasingly difficult to build all these data centres at the same time… there just isn’t the depth in the supply chain.
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It's not gonna end well. Crowded is right, positioning screams euphoria. Only question is the trigger. $SMH
In @Benzinga, Head of Research & Investment Strategy Josh Kaplan told Surbhi Jain the AI #semiconductor trade is one of the most crowded in market history, calling category-rotation a "dangerous playground" for investors. $SMH
benzinga.com/markets/tech/26…
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Trimming semis into strength is the right call. But the discount not narrowing despite a 54.5% NAV tells me the market doesn't believe the numbers yet. That's the real story here
JPMorgan Emerging Markets Growth & Income #JMGI posted a 54.5% portfolio return for the year to 30 June after the £1.6bn investment trust’s asset class enjoyed its best 12 months in a decade, propelled by the tech companies supplying the AI boom. quoteddata.com/2026/09/jpmor…
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Not all public institutions perform equally, even w/in the same country.
Focusing on individual ministries & agencies can help policymakers identify constraints and target practical reforms that strengthen the private sector: worldbank.org/en/topic/gover…
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80% of the world's food from farmers who get less than 1% of climate finance. we keep inventing new ESG labels but can't fund the actual people growing food. that gap is the whole story
🌱Join @FAO and Brazil for a #WorldForestWeek side event:
PAS TERRA: Scaling agroforestry and agroecology for food, climate and forests
🗓️ Wednesday 30 September 2026
⏰12.15–13.45 CEST
More info 👉 ow.ly/UV2250ZPcwj
#ForestFarmFacility #COFO28
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Phantom Economics retweeted
Iran talks could be moving toward a deal.
Oil and stocks are starting to sniff it out. You can't get rates lower while a hot energy conflict is pushing inflation the other way.
Cooler oil, cooler inflation, and suddenly the path back to lower rates reopens. That's the backdrop growth traders are waiting on.
Nothing's signed. But markets tend to price in these developments before the headlines catch up, and the early movers are usually the ones already positioned. $USO
IRAN-U.S. NEGOTIATIONS IN NEW YORK HAVE MOVED BEYOND INITIAL DIPLOMATIC CONTACTS INTO A MORE DETAILED TECHNICAL PHASE, WITH SOURCES IN TEHRAN DESCRIBING THE ATMOSPHERE AS INCREASINGLY POSITIVE, AL JAZEERA'S BUREAU CHIEF IN TEHRAN, NOURDDINE DGHEIR, REPORTED FRIDAY.
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My core EM filter isn't GDP forecasts - it's who actually kept operating through the last crisis. ADGM kept processing licences, VARA kept issuing guidance. That's what I want to own. Durability compounds; narratives don't.
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It's not gonna end well. 5%+ on the 10Y with a $1.25T interest run rate is structural, not cyclical.
After a bit of a pullback overnight, the yield on the US 10-Year Treasury Note is rising once again, now at 5.18%.
The annual run rate on US government interest expense during the run-up to the GFC was a little over $400 billion.
The interest expense annual run rate today is $1.25 trillion.
Interest expense is about to go vertical. We are almost there.
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