Trumpโs RCP averages just hit the worst numbers of his second term. The comparison with Biden at the same point is brutal.
Favorability: -18.1% Job approval: -20.9% Generic congressional ballot: Democrats +8.7%
On September 25, 2022, Biden was at -8.1% favorability and -10.7% approval. The generic ballot then was basically tied, Democrats +0.3%.
Trump is running about ten points worse across the board.
This amounts to a structural rejection of the administration's core pitch. The war with Iran.
The economic upheaval. The constant appeasement of moscovia while pretending to be tough.
The visible corruption. The endless whining about polls being fake.
It all compounds.
The congressional number matters most. Democrats at +8.7% nationally means the House is gone and the Senate is genuinely in play.
Trump can complain about fake polls, but his own advisers are reportedly telling him the numbers are real. He is now planning to dump $140 million into saving the GOP majority and campaign like hell until November 3.
Good luck with that. Every time he personally inserts himself into a race, even in red states, Democrats win.
The midterms are shaping up as a referendum on a president who promised strength and delivered weakness, promised cheap gas and delivered $6.20 diesel, promised peace and delivered escalation with Iran while coddling the Kremlin.
Ukrainians are watching this collapse with zero nostalgia. We remember who tried to blame our strikes on Russian refineries for American fuel prices.
We remember who treated Zelenskyy like a problem and Putin like a peer. The American electorate is now doing what Western leaders refused to do for years: holding the appeaser accountable.