Director @ModoEnergy | Battery storage markets - US, Europe and Australia | Host, Transmission podcast
United Kingdom
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Poland: a solar farm winning this year's CfD at the PLN 389/MWh ceiling would have earned PLN 201/MWh in 2026, against PLN 297 merchant. The top-up settles on the daily average, not what solar achieves at midday. Developers still bid, treating it as a floor on part of output.
ALT Chart: pl solar cfd floor illustration
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Australia: new data centres add 21 TWh of demand by 2035, which some hope will absorb the certificate glut. It won't. The LRET sunset in 2031 cuts mandatory surrender by 30 million certificates a year, and legacy plants become eligible to issue. Generic REGOs fall to $1/MWh.
ALT Chart: rego new build supply demand 2028 2035
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NYISO: NYSERDA contracted 950 MW / 4,360 MWh in its first Index Storage Credit round, about 15% of the 6.3 GW bid. The credit works like a CfD against a zonal Reference Price. Notably, every 8-hour bid was rejected, and six of those seven were non-lithium projects.
ALT Chart: nyiso isc 3 lighthouse bid vs contract
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CAISO: capacity contracts, both Resource Adequacy and offtakes, now account for 80% of battery revenues in California. With wholesale revenues on track for $40/kW in 2026, the lowest on record, the merchant case has thinned. The floor is doing the work now.
ALT Chart: Capacity contracts make up 80% of battery revenues in California
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ESEM: the Regional Reference PPA settles against fleet generation, not the individual asset, so basis risk stays with the seller. In the backcast, the most exposed wind sites faced liabilities up to $73k/MW/year, with constraint exposure reaching $40k/MW/year.
ALT Chart: fleet capture
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NEM: energy parks are being announced steadily, but Kennedy remains the only operational project combining wind, solar and storage. Its commissioning delays showed the problem: connection processes built for single technologies don't fit hybrids well.
ALT Chart: nem park profiles
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ERCOT: the new generation firming penalty only bites when reserves fall below 3,000 MW, which hasn't happened since September 2023. Costs nothing today. But it's sized on seasonal average output, and wind and solar produce far less than that in scarcity hours.
ALT Chart: prc sub3000 days by year
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How to manage declining gas demand with home electrification… one of the hardest problems in energy
"Ten percent of demand comes off. That does not mean ten percent of the network goes."
Sam Wilson (Cadent, Director of Energy System Operations) on why gas network decommissioning won't scale linearly with falling demand. The network's resilience comes from how interdependent it is, which is also why you can't remove sections as usage drops.
His expectation: a long period of near-zero change, then a tipping point where decommissioning suddenly becomes economical, then a tail off. Right now that point is still a distance away and isn't in Cadent's current investment cycles.
Full episode of Transmission out now.
#EnergyTransition #GasNetworks #NetZero
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Spain: the final capacity market order changes the calculus for co-located batteries. Standalone assets need only be available during stress hours, but co-located BESS without grid charging rights must actually dispatch firm capacity. On a low-solar day, that's a penalty risk.
ALT Chart: The Spanish methodology would lead to similar de-rating values to those in the latest auctions in other capacity markets
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🎧 Transmission: GB: decommissioning the gas network is decided by topology, not customer count. Even as heat pumps grow and demand falls, you can't switch off streets in sequence.
piped.video/watch?v=qSbgGdsE…
ALT Transmission podcast: Why Britain Can't Simply Switch Off Its Gas Network - Cadent
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