investor @ufo_holdings | writes a substack about markets (link below) | abolish p*ckleball
brooklyn
- Tweets 3,485
- Following 1,362
- Followers 4,654
- Likes 12,504
I wrote a blog post about perpetual futures because I think perpetual futures will be a very, very big deal
Forever and ever
Perpetual futures have landed in America… and have the potential to re-orient finance as we know it
substacktools.com/sharex/rmD…
2
4
49
19,596
if you’re new to prediction markets, you probably have no idea about the weird underbelly that is election nerds side betting crazy niche political props in size
i can guarantee you this spawned from a heated debate in a private discord group chat where polling crosstabs are analyzed carefully
bet my $5k to @aenews $5k that Republicans have a worse % margin in NE-SEN than KS-SEN
4
2
24
3,631
this is great and long overdue
markets like mentions are so obviously net negative for the prediction markets industry. at some point we are just asking for trouble. let’s not!
4
3
41
8,947
the best prediction market traders are truly built different
absolutely the most intense lifestyle of trading (that is easily accessible to the masses, so not including like rare earth metals guys running around the Congo)
you're constantly on as there are no 'market hours' and news move things super violently and at random times
2
1
29
7,526
Adhi 🛸 retweeted
Compute today looks a lot like power did in the 1990s. Some thoughts on how power evolved from a vertically integrated utility business into a physical and financial market, and why compute may be following the same path:
linkedin.com/pulse/short-his…
1
5
290
everyone who is trying to value hyperliquid as a company is completely missing the point.
HYPE is not shares in a company that is valued with P/E ratios or revenue multiples
HYPE is simply the token needed to participate in the system, and all of the activity in the system creates fees that buy back and burn the hype
thus, the hyperliquid protocol has deep network effects and flywheels that will send the token higher. there are many legitimate, useful, and non-speculative economic reasons to buy and hold HYPE, and there is only one reason to sell HYPE (that you think HYPE will go down).
this is why the token is priced this way. it's not a company.
Qiao Wang says a P/E of 20 for Hyperliquid is not cheap: "Which trading product has durable earnings over 20 years? None of them"
“I don’t mean to pick on Hyperliquid. It’s every trading product. There’s no switching cost of liquidity”
“What does a P/E of 20 really mean? If you believe that a P/E of 20 is fair, what you’re really saying is that the earnings over the next 20 years, discounted, equals today’s price. But which crypto product, which trading product, which financial product has durable earnings over 20 years? None of them. They’re always under competitive threats, always under newcomers”
“I think a P/E of 5 is fair. And even then, 5 is high”
Imran: “If you see what’s happening in the onchain world, you could see one product instantly get success and the other product instantly go to zero”
Qiao: “These onchain games, a P/E of 0.5 is fair. Meaning it’s durable for a few months”
Imran: “You have to be extremely careful, because users have no loyalty to the platforms. They’ll go wherever the incentives are. The switching cost is basically zero”
15
3
90
14,657
Adhi 🛸 retweeted
Huge shoutout to @eightyhi, one of the sharpest minds in early-stage markets and the catalyst for this round coming together along with @maxglik
absolutely thrilled to be a part of @liquidcompute’s journey via @ufo_holdings.
Ronit, Aarav and team have taken the more arduous path of getting a regulated DCM license, which allows them to own the stack to actually execute compute futures trades.
this differentiates them from every other compute futures project - keep an eye on this team!
6
1
23
5,019
absolutely thrilled to be a part of @liquidcompute’s journey via @ufo_holdings.
Ronit, Aarav and team have taken the more arduous path of getting a regulated DCM license, which allows them to own the stack to actually execute compute futures trades.
this differentiates them from every other compute futures project - keep an eye on this team!
I’m excited to share that today @liquidcompute emerges from stealth with a $15 million seed round. We are announcing pending applications before the CFTC for Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) status to build the first regulated orderbook to trade both cash and physically settled contracts on compute.
The reality of compute is that it is heterogeneous and cannot be stored, functioning much like electricity rather than oil. Our approach focuses on developing a highly efficient short-term market to underpin a cash-settled derivatives layer, operating similarly to PJM or ERCOT sitting below liquid derivatives markets.
Over recent months, I’m also happy to announce that Liquid Compute has collaborated with leading financial firms like Susquehanna International Group, @BGCGroupInc and @wintermute_t to facilitate liquid OTC trading for AI startups, neocloud providers, and lenders.
This round was co-led by @chemistry and @FirstMarkCap , with participation from K8 Cap, Night Capital, @ufo_holdings, @TrueBridgeCP, Brainchild Holdings (@kalvepuri), @ycombinator, and angels such as Dmitry Balyasny, @taro_f , @JdotJdotF, Ethan Lin and others from companies like CoreWeave, Jane Street, OpenAI
3
53
11,453
Adhi 🛸 retweeted
Prediction markets are bounty-driven journalism. Good traders run private polls, find documents, probe narratives and get answers. More of that is the unlock.
Prediction market tradoors are only a matter of time away from self-organizing into a cracked political mercenary force:
-highly motivated volunteers
-crowdsourced oppo research
-most viral voices on social media
DM me for an application. 🤭
5
25
1,999
Adhi 🛸 retweeted
Nine days ago 70% of economists expected a hold. Then August CPI printed 0.4%, Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan and Citigroup flipped to a hike call, and today the 10-year crossed 5% for the first time since October 2023.
Wednesday the FOMC decides.
$10Y tracks the 10-year Treasury yield itself on Hyperliquid, 24/7, up to 20x.
Almost all of the Fed watchers that had not been expecting a September hike before today changed their call after the August CPI printed a bit firmer than expected
1
3
17
1,965
Adjacent's sports indices could unlock massive volumes in sports perps!
We are excited to announce our latest index family, NTI.
The NFL Team Index (NTI) is a collection of 32 NFL team indices. Every season vintage has four fully invested sleeves for each team, starting at 1000 base each season.
NTI is composed of equal weighted contracts:
- Super Bowl Winner
- Conference Winner
- Division Winner
- Team Regular Season Win Totals
Check out our full post on it press.adj.news/p/launching-n…
2
16
4,076
yea, @lightspeedvp cooked with this one. Alex is one of a kind.
Today, I’m starting my next chapter as a Partner at @Lightspeed.
The day after GSB graduation, I met @ravi_lsvp for the 1st time after a casual meet with @bsomaia. Thank you for the conviction. It’s go time.
SF all of September then NYC/SF split
(203)832-5510
lapolice@lsvp.com
1
4
3,626
this is a phenomenally clear, cogent, and well-reasoned take by @_jaechung on how AI will affect markets.
it’s really not as simple as “ASI = markets solved”. the reality is, trading is just another form of knowledge work and that AI will supercharge the productivity of the workers, the market participants.
i also really loved the personal and frank style of writing in this piece, especially in the second half.
People keep asking me: will AI solve markets?
There's a "neotrading lab" every week promising to do it
Running an HFT firm, I've thought about this for a while
AI will change quant trading. But not in the way most people think.
New piece below:
1
11
3,083
thrilled to be a part of Entropy’s journey! @ufo_holdings is an investor.
hyperliquid is a good a platform as any for the frontier of markets. can’t wait to see what these guys cook up!
We are releasing the first liquid way to trade Anthropic.
For far too long, frontier assets have only been accessible to a select few. We are here to bring them to the masses.
Introducing EntropyIO. We’ve raised $14M led by Ribbit Capital and a $40M HYPE stake to build both improved and entirely new markets, the first of which are live on Hyperliquid today.
4
39
6,358
anthropic cooked with this one. congrats @ahall_research !
I'm thrilled to be joining @AnthropicAI to research the political economy of superintelligence. AI is progressing fast, and we have a rare opportunity to build it in ways that make free societies stronger.
I'll be conducting new research with the Rule of Law team to understand how we can design AI that bolsters democratic self-governance and enhances individual liberty. I'll be running novel agentic experiments, analyzing large-scale data, and studying what makes AI trustworthy for citizens and policymakers alike.
We’re only beginning to understand the political economy of increasingly capable AI, and there’s a much broader research agenda to develop around it. I’ll continue to run the Free Systems Lab and publish my Substack to help advance that work.
Today is my first day, and I can't wait to dive in!
1
5
2,271