Corley appears to be one of few pollsters doing laborious work this year.
He won’t bash other pollsters, though. I will. These polls are rotten to the core.
NYT/Siena’s July polling had Sullivan +2 in AK, Hinson +2 in IA and Husted +3 in OH. Now it’s Peltola +7, Hinson +1 and Brown +3 for a 9-point D shift in Alaska and 6 points in Ohio, while Iowa barely moved…
Texas shows the same. Talarico went from tied to +6, while Abbott went from +6 to Hinojosa +4 for a 10-point Democratic swing in the governor’s race. In Texas…
That governor result is a useful control here for us. If Paxton alone were the problem, Abbott should not necessarily be moving sharply in the same direction. But NYT/Siena show both statewide races shifting hard to the left. Applying midterm penalty, cruddy GOP environment, etc., the findings still leaves room for legitimate questions about sample composition, the LV model, or some other common mode effect in Siena’s surveys.
I say this fully aware of what it’s like on this end of the table and I’m not interested in pollster bashing. I’m genuinely interested in how they found what they found and I’d still be asking the same questions if these were my own findings.