Q3 ends this week. Q4 will be decided by what happens in the next four days.
The Fed just delivered its first rate hike in three years, and markets are pricing roughly 65% odds of another one on October 28. Between now and Friday, we get the data that settles it:
- Tuesday: JOLTS and Consumer Confidence
- Wednesday: PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge
- Thursday: ISM manufacturing and jobless claims
- Friday: The jobs report
The logic is simple.
Hot inflation and a strong labor market give the Fed cover to keep going, and rate-sensitive assets like crypto feel that immediately. Soft numbers take the pressure off and give risk room to breathe into October.
CPI on Oct 14 gets the final word before the Fed meets. But this week sets the tone, and it decides what kind of Q4 crypto walks into.
Either way, by Friday afternoon, we'll know what kind of Q4 we're walking into.
*Not financial advice.