Very good article. I’m not an expert but I’ll give my take nonetheless lol.
One of my “hypotheses” has been for a while that AGI, Skynet and Deus ex Machina are in fact *not* around the corner. No matter what Dario, Sam and Elon keep saying. I am fully aware that these individuals are much more intelligent, informed and hard working than me, however I also believe that they have gorged on capital by promising to create God and so they have strong incentives to always keep promising more crazy stuff “next year”.
If AGI is not around the corner, I think the smart move is to focus on defensible and profitable “niches” (niche as opposed to general, we’re still talking billion dollars markets lol).
I still think the one of the easiest and most profitable niches will be programming, just by looking at the job market for software engineers: it’s a highly demanded, expensive skill, so making software engineers 10% more productive is a big deal and may make the entire effort profitable. It’s the “easiest” because code lends itself very well to the LLM text-focused architecture. I don’t think there’s a significant chance of anyone catching up with the big American firms in this niche.
Beyond that however, I think the defensible and profitable niches become *way* harder to predict, because other engineering disciplines are much less text-based.
“The thesis is that models trained on company-specific data and physical-domain data can outperform American general-purpose models on engineering and manufacturing tasks”.
I understand the thesis and I genuinely think it’s a risky bet. It’s not clear to me that LLMs will be able to reliably parse the embedded information in 3D modelling CAD files, PCB layout files, electronic schematics files etc… arguably, neither can a human, which is why you also need to document design decisions, test results and in general have a knowledge-transfer system in your company. An electrical engineer I work with told me he was still very disappointed by AI’s PCB design performances. An aerospace engineer I work with has stopped using AI for mechanical design. Mechanical engineering often requires solving an entire new problem in 3D with some form of novel mechanism (here evolutionary algorithms might be more suited than LLMs but they have other issues).
The whole digital twin thing is far from new (I actually worked on this as a student lol), same for the logistics optimisation through digital modelling, both are data-intensive but not necessarily compute-intensive, and as standalone techs are not really dependent on AI. It will still be a profitable niche because large companies are very reluctant to move their data around and it will help cut some waste, but I think the real advantage will go to the first companies that really manage to integrate these data-heavy contexts with complex modern AI… what those use-cases will look like is way beyond my pay grade lol.
The partnership between Mistral and EDF is an interesting case of this. Yes those companies generate lots of industrial data, but it’s effectively mostly “just numbers”… I imagine a large percentage of EDF’s data is effectively spreadsheets, for which the good ol’ “Data Science” (before it got also renamed to AI) was already good enough. In that category, in my small personal experience (my first full time job was in data science for industry), the bottleneck is usually neither the data nor the model, but the combination of the various domain knowledges (for a chemical plant: the chemist, the electrician, the civil engineer…) with whatever algorithm and data. Or if you prefer: the bottleneck is still the interaction between humans and computers.
Anyways, this will be an interesting field to follow closely and lets me think I should not have difficulties finding a job in Europe in the next decades!