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Larsen is prototypically the latter, but it's not like there's a clear divide between the two, all one are in some sense the other.
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The fact Beijing is buying now is itself a pretty telling signal as to how the geopolitics are likely to shake out
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Tactically if you retaliate via energy, trump loses midterms, potentially quite badly. The timing is favorable to canada, since the impact is concentrated on a narrow window.
Trump is acutely aware of this soft underbelly. So itd result in a deal before economic impacts
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EOY seems likely. March-June net debt went from 16.15b -> 14.6. they adjust FCF allocations by year anyways.
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models are what tie the value of an asset to e.g income. They reflect income insofar as trades are made based on model outputs
e.g. momentum is the anticipation of current and future flows into an asset. if everyone only trades momentum asset price is fully divorced from income
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Counterpoint, models have consistently underestimated dewpoints in the region over the past month.
But its not the best area to chase, cuz trees and spotty roads
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Agree it is hard, but feel like major part of that is that options are flat and its more about who was going to draw what.
In a strategically deep state, better players shd win >=2/3 of bo3s. Feels flatter right now.
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Complex in # of words& interactions, sure, but does it lead to strategic complexity?
That is, has the # of decisions one can make that change the outcome of the game incr, decr, or stayed?
Just a rando but id argue decreased, and also that strat archetypes are also simpler.
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A good chunk of their import cuts was the direct result of iran not exporting. A good chunk of the traffic is iran exporting -> likely no significant new barrels ex-china.
China is price sensitive while the SPR continues to drain on a 6-handle. 🤷♂️
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If we accept your 1.5m payrolls, either they've more than doubled payrolls since 2022 or its closer to steady-state payrolls. They don't talk about losses but they do talk about recruitment, eg. themoscowtimes.com/2025/12/2…
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casualty = killed+wounded+missing
Russian sources claim recruitment of 300k in '22, 540k in '23, ~490k in '24, ~125k in '26 = 1.455m
Unless they've doubled payroll size (no), or inflated numbers (probably), the math is at least in the right ballpark.
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