This is the first bitcoin:native bear market that never closed below the Realized Price. This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time. More on the next levels, sell pressure and ETF flows in this week's Week On-chain 👇
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Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with @CIG_Crypto Edition #8 is live now👇 glassno.de/3V7V5lX
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Only 9 of the top 50 altcoins have beaten bitcoin:native since its all-time high. ZEC leads by a wide margin, up 14x against Bitcoin. HYPE, XMR and NEAR follow at 2–3x.
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Holders are realizing profits on bitcoin:native. However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days. They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.
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Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line. Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light. More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇
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The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear. At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows. This one is 30% below its high and rising. A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.
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Your AI agent can now buy Glassnode data. x402 pays from your @coinbase balance via Coinbase for Agents, or your USDC wallet. Try : "Use Glassnode data to tell me if the Bitcoin market is overheated" glassno.de/451fVoR
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Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses. The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit. Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit. That point is still a long way off.
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$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets. MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.
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$BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages. After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped. Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend.
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The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season. The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved. However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.
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$BTC remains in a bullish regime, according to various cost basis models and time frames. Price is trading above both the True Market Mean and the short-term holder cost basis. Holding above these levels is what historically defines a sustained uptrend.
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As bitcoin:native has touched $86k, long leverage is slowly rebuilding in the options market. Open Interest put/call ratios are moving up. However, this still remains far from the frothy levels we saw near the BTC top. Perp speculation also remains muted with funding below neutral.
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Bitcoin touches $86k, up more than 10% from last Sunday's close. Spot and perpetual buyers lead while leverage and profit-taking slowly rise with price. ETF flows are the one reading still pointing the other way. glassno.de/4hgcRdV
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As expected, bitcoin:native accelerated through the wall of short liquidations. Shorts accumulated between $82k and $86k for months, however the rejection from this level was shallow. Now these shorts are the fuel, as these traders are required to buy back BTC.
bitcoin:native is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf. The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k. If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover. These shorts have been building for several weeks.
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The current bid is strong enough that bitcoin:native can be spent in profit without price immediately rolling over. A sustained entity-adjusted SOPR above 1 is characteristic of a bull market. A break back below 1 would signal that this demand is fading.
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bitcoin:native is climbing into a thickening liquidation shelf. The dense cluster sits around $83k–$86k. If reached, price could move quickly through this zone as shorts are forced to cover. These shorts have been building for several weeks.
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Altcoin leverage is still sitting below its risk threshold. When the share of altcoin open interest comes within a few percent of Bitcoin's, the market is usually overheated. That condition is not currently met, indicating a potential for alts to run further.
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$BTC has reclaimed the True Market Mean. That puts price back above a crucial level and back into a bullish regime. Next major overhead is the corporate treasury cost basis around $80k and finally the ETF cost basis at $85k.
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ICYMI: Listed companies added just 5.9K $BTC over three months, versus 89K in July 2025 alone. With spot just below their $80.5K average cost basis, corporate buyers face modest unrealized losses while providing little fresh demand. This week's analysis: nitter.net/i/article/210022280587…
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$BTC has slipped below the bottom of the range. That floor aligned with the True Market Mean and price needs to reclaim it for conditions to remain bullish. If it does not, the short-term holder cost basis near $70k becomes increasingly likely. Read more below 👇
Bitcoin has slipped below its multi-week range just as the Fed decides on rates. Support under price is thin, but the potential catalyst here is strong. Our latest Week On-Chain report covers what to watch for.
Article

Breakdown into Thin Support

Bitcoin has slipped out of its recent range and back under the True Market Mean, yet it has held up well through a failed Senate vote and a sharp altcoin sell-off, with a rate hike expected today. New

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The ETF bid is gone again. It came back in late August, ran for just over three weeks, and has already flipped to net redemptions. The ETFs bought during and after the rally, but are not currently buying the bitcoin:native dip.
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Late August saw the broadest burst of altcoin gains this year. At the same time, multiple holder cohorts used the bounce to take profit. We monitor these metrics and more on our Market Compass. Full report for this edition: glassno.de/4hqVV5L
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Bitcoin is sitting at $78k, down around 1% on the week, and holding its range. Spot and perpetual selling and ETF outflows weigh, but capital inflows and elevated profitability show a market absorbing pressure, not breaking down. glassno.de/4Ae0qrW
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bitcoin:native is stuck beneath a wall of long-term holder supply around $83-$85k. However, investors are acquiring coins here. Should we break below this newly forming cluster, $75k is the level to watch. After that a full retrace to $60k would be in play.
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band. Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure. A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs.
Article

The Ceiling Everyone Can See

Bitcoin has climbed back to the edge of a resistance band that cost-basis data, the liquidation map and institutional break-even levels all draw in the same place, yet the selling into it is the

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US spot Bitcoin ETFs have climbed back toward break-even after an $18B drawdown. Institutional cost basis is now a resistance level that price has to move through for further upside
Bitcoin is still stuck beneath the edge of a thick resistance band. Moving above this level, would indicate a shift in long term market structure. A return lower would result in significant pain for late longs.
Article

The Ceiling Everyone Can See

Bitcoin has climbed back to the edge of a resistance band that cost-basis data, the liquidation map and institutional break-even levels all draw in the same place, yet the selling into it is the

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Two cities produce more than half of all Solana blocks. Frankfurt 33% Amsterdam 19% 310 of 675 validators sit in those two cities. That is 46% of the network by validator count, 53% by stake. latency.glassnode.com
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Bitcoin holds near $79.1k after a flat week. Capital inflows, ETF demand and futures leverage all build, while cooling spot momentum and a deeply negative volatility spread keep the market finely balanced. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 glassno.de/4cAdFsO
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Bitcoin ETFs took in $643M last Thursday. That is the biggest single-day inflow since January. It follows the strongest month ETFs have had all year.
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BTC volatility is currently historically low. However, the strongest driver of low vol is not market cap. It is who holds the coins. Long-term holder supply explains more of realized vol than market cap, open interest, or turnover.
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The signal that marked the $126K bitcoin:native top is Risk-On again. After the Bitcoin Vector Signal flipped risk off in October 2025, BTC drew down 54%. It flipped long again as BTC broke above 70k. Sign up below 👇 glassno.de/btc-vector
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On-chain supply levels and liquidation clusters show strong confluence. The cost-basis bands line up well with the leverage pain points. We cover the range and what to look for in our latest newsletter 👇
Bitcoin has stalled below long-term overhead supply. The trading range is well-defined by two cost basis clusters. Liquidation clusters also provide significant confluence. Read our latest Week On Chain Article
Article

Doubt at the Boundaries

Following the mid-August short squeeze and a brief wave of euphoria, Bitcoin stalled immediately below long-term overhead supply. With sovereign yields setting new cycle highs and ETF turnover

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Ask a question in plain language. Let your agent do the research. With the Glassnode CLI, your favourite AI can now do high quality market research in seconds. bit.ly/4qLyK9D
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#BTC spot ETFs recorded their highest monthly inflows since July 2025. They pulled in ~$3.5 billion in August. glassno.de/btc-etf-netflow
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The blockchain trilemma: a network can strengthen two of decentralization, security, and scalability, usually at a cost to the third. Read our joint report with @ARKInvest on how Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana compare. 👇 glassno.de/4A8mp3F
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bitcoin:native and equities are decoupling. Correlation with the S&P is approaching its lowest point in almost 2 years. The tight equity relationship that defined much of the recent downtrend is fading.
Squeeze into Supply: The Week On-chain 34 is live. What stands between this recovery and the January high is one band of supply between $81K and $86K. Bitcoin ran 26% off its mid-August low on a record short flush, and real money followed it up.
Article

Squeeze into Supply

A record short liquidation event ignited a 26% rally off the mid-August low, and real money paid for it: the strongest ETF intake of the year, coins leaving exchanges, every cohort accumulating. What

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If you care about execution quality, start with location. That is what our latency tool is for. Ink, OP Mainnet, and ZKsync Era are now live on our latency map, next to the exchanges and chains we already cover. latency.glassnode.com
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bitcoin:native holds near $78,300 after rallying from $64k lows. Institutional inflows stay strong, but rising leverage, tight volatility spreads, and softening retail activity point to a cautious, transitional market. Read this week’s Market Pulse👇 glassno.de/4h1A3h9
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Solana spot ETFs had their strongest stretch on record. $138M of net inflows over 10 days, including a single-day high of $47M on Tuesday. Leading the pack is @Bitwise's BSOL, now holding 9.3 million $SOL and crossing $1B in AUM – the first Solana ETF to get there.
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Recent options flow is concentrated around $72.5K and $79.25K, with notable call buying at both strikes. This suggests traders are positioning for further upside, while put demand remains comparatively muted. glassno.de/4gCxnVZ
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The sharp move through $70K has pushed BTC into a dense gamma zone around $75–80K, where positive and negative exposures are concentrated. This may increase price sensitivity as positioning shifts around these strikes. glassno.de/4ybmPEA
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25 delta skew has compressed sharply across maturities, with short-dated skew turning negative. This points to reduced demand for downside protection and a shift toward more balanced or upside-oriented positioning. glassno.de/4wZ8oCz
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DVOL has rebounded sharply alongside BTC’s move toward $80K, signalling renewed demand for volatility. However, at ~41, implied volatility remains well below prior 50–60+ regimes. glassno.de/4y67J2U
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Options open interest has recovered sharply alongside BTC, now approaching 550K BTC. This signals renewed derivatives positioning and growing market participation as price rebounds toward $80K. glassno.de/3UrKfXy
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bitcoin:native has staged a sharp recovery toward $80K, with options markets beginning to reflect the shift in momentum. Volatility is waking up, open interest is rebuilding, and positioning is tilting more constructively. Here’s what the options market is telling us👇
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Strategy Watch is our monthly read on fund performance, capital flows, and allocator positioning across digital assets, produced with @CIG_Crypto Edition #7 is live now👇 glassno.de/4d4hpTo
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1.05M $BTC of long-term holder supply sits between $83K and $86K, the first heavy cost-basis shelf above spot at $79K. Effectively all of it has held through the entire drawdown, making that band the test of whether patient supply sells at breakeven. 👉 research.glassnode.com/the-w…
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After large market moves, staying objective and level-headed is difficult. Our latest weekly report walks you through the data: the liquidation cascade, who bought the squeeze, and the supply now sitting overhead.
Squeeze into Supply: The Week On-chain 34 is live. What stands between this recovery and the January high is one band of supply between $81K and $86K. Bitcoin ran 26% off its mid-August low on a record short flush, and real money followed it up.
Article

Squeeze into Supply

A record short liquidation event ignited a 26% rally off the mid-August low, and real money paid for it: the strongest ETF intake of the year, coins leaving exchanges, every cohort accumulating. What

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Bitcoin Vector's impulse flipped positive from the lows. bitcoin:native has advanced roughly 20% since. The strategy is currently fully allocated and in profit, and the next upside target sits at $82.8k. Full access: glassno.de/45Sb3Tl
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