first fed hike since 2023, the 10-year above 5%, and $BTC is up 11% since the decision

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This is the first bitcoin:native bear market that never closed below the Realized Price. This means that the average BTC holder stayed in profit this entire time. More on the next levels, sell pressure and ETF flows in this week's Week On-chain 👇

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Only 9 of the top 50 altcoins have beaten bitcoin:native since its all-time high. ZEC leads by a wide margin, up 14x against Bitcoin. HYPE, XMR and NEAR follow at 2–3x.

here's how each cross played out, lined up on the signal day. a year later $BTC's median was 3.3x and even the weakest was up 50%. after two years the median was 7x.

Holders are realizing profits on bitcoin:native. However, the amounts remain relatively low, with $5.1B in net profit realized over the last 7 days. They look closer to late 2023 levels than to what we saw at major tops.

Short-term bitcoin:native holders are back above the sell line. Nevertheless, profit taking has stayed light. More on this topic, as well as the levels to watch in this week's Week On-chain. 👇

Bitcoin is back above the levels that held it down all year. Our new Week On-chain report maps where it could go next.

bullish confirmation signal on $BTC today the 30DMA reclaimed the 50WMA for the first time since 2023 the previous crosses confirmed a bull

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The four-year cycle playbook many relied on has not worked for this $BTC bear. At this point, the last three were more than twice as deep and weeks from their lows. This one is 30% below its high and rising. A late drop to their depth looks less likely by the week.

$BTC up almost 50% from the june low, and the coinbase premium is still negative. The US bid hasn’t even properly arrived yet.

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Most altcoin holders are still sitting on losses. The median coin has less than a quarter of its supply in profit. Global market tops tend to occur once a majority of supply across the entire market is deep in profit. That point is still a long way off.

bitcoin:native is outperforming the starts of the last two bull markets. Measured off the low, 84 days ago, price is up 47%. The 2019 and 2023 recoveries were both slower than this. In both of those cycles, most of the move came after this point.

$BTC has flashed the momentum signal that started the last two bull markets. MVRV has crossed back above its 365-day average. This is the same cross that we saw in 2019 and 2023 at the beginning of each bull market.

$BTC has reclaimed every one of its long-term moving averages. After around 300 days underneath them, this dynamic has now flipped. Holding above them is what maintains a long-term uptrend.

The altcoin cycle signal has just flipped from bitcoin to altcoin season. The first rally in August saw altcoins stay relatively flat while BTC moved. However, today's rally has ignited the full breadth of the altcoin market.